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尾随一站式技术

2009-03-25  广州之虎
在所有形式的长期投资和短期的交易,决定适当的时候退出的立场一样(如果不是更多)的重要决定的最佳时间进入你的立场。 Buying (or selling, in the case of a short position ) is a relatively less emotional action than selling (or buying, in the case of a short position). When it comes time to exit the position your profits are staring you directly in the face, but perhaps you are tempted to ride the tide a little longer, or in the unthinkable case of paper losses, your heart tells you to hold tight, to wait until your losses reverse.购买(或出售,在很短的位置 )是一个相对较少情绪行动比销售(或购买,在很短的立场) 。说到时候退出的立场是盯着你的利润直接与您的面对,但也许你很想坐潮流了一会儿,或在无法想象的情况下文件的损失,你的心告诉你举行紧,等到你的损失扭转。
ut such emotional responses are hardly the best means by which to make your selling (or buying) decisions. UT斯达康这样的情绪反应是很难的最佳手段,让您的销售(或购买)的决定。 They are unscientific and undisciplined.它们是不科学的,不守纪律。 Many overarching systems of trading have their own techniques for determining the best time to exit a trade.许多交易系统的总体拥有自己的技术,以确定最佳时机A出口贸易。 But there some general techniques that will help you identify the optimal moment of exit, which ensures acceptable profits while guarding against unacceptable losses.但有一些一般性的技术,将帮助您确定最佳的时刻退出,以确保可接受的利润,同时防范不可接受的损失。

Momentum-Based Trailing Stop 动力基于落后停止
The most basic technique for establishing an appropriate exit point is the trailing-stop technique.最基本的技术,建立一个适当的出口点是落后的一站式技术。 Very simply, the trailing stop maintains a stop-loss order at a precise percentage below the market price (or above, in the case of a short position).很简单,尾随停止保持停损为了一个准确的百分比低于市场价格(或以上,在很短的立场) 。 The stop-loss order is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the market price, always maintaining the same percentage below (or above) the market price.该停损秩序调整的基础上不断波动的市场价格,始终保持相同的百分比低于(或以上)的市场价格。 The trader is then "guaranteed" to know the exact minimum profit that his or her position will garner.该交易商则“保证” ,以知道确切的最低利润,他或她的位置将获得。 This level of profitability the trader will have previously determined based on his or her predilection toward aggressive or conservative trading.这一级别的盈利交易将先前已经决定根据他或她偏爱的侵略或保守交易。

Deciding what constitutes appropriate profits (or acceptable losses) is perhaps the most difficult aspect of establishing a trailing-stop system for your disciplined trading decisions.决定什么是适当的利润(或可以接受的损失)或许是最困难的方面建立一个落后一站式系统为您的交易决策。 Setting your trailing-stop percentage can be done using a relatively vague approach (which is closer to emotion) rather than precise precepts.设置落后一站式比例可以做一个相对模糊的使用方法(这是更接近情绪) ,而不是精确的戒律。

A vague consideration, for example, might maintain that you wait for certain technical or fundamental criteria to be met before setting your stops.一个模糊的考虑,例如,可以保持您等待某些技术或基本标准得到满足之前,您停止。 For example, a trader might wait for a breakout of a three to four-week consolidation and then place stops below the low of that consolidation after entering the position.例如,交易商可能等待突破的三至四个星期的巩固 ,然后发生停止低于低的,合并后进入的位置。 The technique requires the patience to wait for the first quarter of a move (perhaps 50 bars) before setting your stops.该技术需要耐心等待第一季度的行动(也许50条) ,然后设定您停止。

In addition to necessitating patience, this technique throws fundamental analysis into the picture by introducing the concept of 'being overvalued' (a rather relative concept if I have ever heard of one) into your trailing stops.除了需要耐心,这项技术全基本分析到图片的概念,被高估' (一个相对的概念,而如果我曾听过一)到您的落后停止。 When a stock begins to exhibit a P/E that is higher than its historical P/E and above its forward one to three-year projected growth rate , the trailing stops are to be tightened to a smaller percentage - the stock's apparent state of being overvalued may indicate a reduced likelihood of additional realized profits.当股票开始展出一个 P / E的高于其历史P / E与上述前进2点59分,今年预计的增长速度 ,尾随站将被收紧,以一个较小的百分比-股票显然状态也可能是高估的可能性减少额外实现利润。

The overvalued situation is muddied even further when a stock enters a "blow-off" period, wherein the overvaluation can become extreme (certainly defying any sense of rationality) and can last for many weeks or even months.在高估情况的争夺态势进一步当股票进入了一个“吹脱”期间,其中过高可能成为极端(当然不畏任何意义上的合理性) ,并可以持续几个星期甚至几个月的时间。 By rolling with a blow-off, aggressive traders can continue to ride the train to extreme profits while still using trailing stops to protect against losses.滚动与吹脱,侵略性的贸易商可以继续坐火车极端利润的同时仍然落后停止使用,以防止损失。 Unfortunately, momentum is notoriously immune to technical analysis, and the further the trader enters into a "rolling stop" system, the further removed from a strict system of discipline he or she becomes.不幸的是,势头一直是个老大难免疫技术分析,并进一步贸易商进入“滚动一站式”制度,进一步解除了严格的纪律制度成为他或她。

The Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) 抛制止和扭转(特区)
While the momentum-based stop-loss technique described above is undeniably sexy for its potential for massive ongoing profits, some traders prefer a more disciplined approach suited for a more orderly market (the preferred market for the conservative-minded trader).虽然势头的停损技术上文所述不可否认性感的潜力巨大的持续的利润,一些交易商倾向于更严格的做法适合于一个更有序的市场(市场的首选保守思想交易) 。 The parabolic stop and reverse (SAR) technique provides stop-loss levels for both sides of the market, moving incrementally each day with changes in price. 抛物线制止和扭转 (特区)技术提供的停损水平,双方的市场份额,正在逐步改变,每天的价格。

The SAR is a technical indicator plotted on a price chart that will occasionally intersect with price due to a reversal or loss of momentum in the security in question.香港特区是一个技术指标绘制图表,价格偶尔会交叉价格由于逆转或失去动力,安全的问题。 When this intersection occurs, the trade is considered to be stopped out, and the opportunity exists to take the other side of the market.当这个十字路口时,贸易被认为是停止了,并有机会存在采取的另一边的市场份额。

For example, if your long position is stopped out, which means the security is sold and the position is thereby closed, you may then sell short with a trailing stop immediately set opposite (parabolic) to the level at which you stopped out your position on the other side of the market.例如,如果您长期的立场是停止了,这意味着安全是出售的立场,从而关闭,然后,您可以卖空的落后立即停止一套对面(抛)的水平,你停止你的立场另一边的市场。 The SAR technique allows one to capture both sides of the market as the security fluctuates up and down over time.特区技术允许一个捕捉双方市场的安全上下波动一段时间。

The major proviso on the SAR system relates to its use in an erratically moving security.主要规定的SAR系统涉及到它的使用在一个不稳定移动安全。 If the security should fluctuate up and down quickly, your trailing stops will always be triggered too soon before you have opportunity to achieve sufficient profits.如果安全性应该向上和向下的波动很快,你将永远落后停止触发为时过早之前你有机会实现足够的利润。 In other words, in a choppy market, your trading commissions and other costs will overwhelm your profitability, as meager as it will be.换言之,在震荡的市场,您的交易佣金和其他费用将远远超过您的盈利能力,因为微薄的,因为它会。

The second proviso relates to the use of SAR on a security that is not exhibiting a significant trend.第二个条件涉及使用特别行政区的安全没有表现出显着的趋势。 If the trend is too weak, your stop will never be reached, and your profits will not be locked in. So the SAR is really inappropriate for securities that lack trends or whose trends fluctuate back-and-forth too quickly.如果这一趋势太软弱,你将永远不会停止达成,而您的利润将不会被锁定所以特区确实是不合适的证券,缺乏趋势或其趋势波动备份和来回太快。 If you are able to identify an opportunity somewhere between these two extremes, the SAR may just be exactly what you are looking for in determining your levels of trailing stops.如果您能够确定一个机会之间,这两个极端,特区也许正是你所寻找的是决定您的水平落后停止。

Conclusion 结论
Deciding how to determine the exit points of your positions depends on how conservative you are as a trader.决定如何确定出境点的位置取决于您是如何保守的交易者。 If you tend to be aggressive, you may determine your profitability levels and acceptable losses by means of a less precise approach like the setting of trailing stops according to a fundamental criteria.如果你往往是积极的,您可以判断您的盈利水平和接受的损失的方式方法不一样精确的设置落后停止根据一项基本准则。 On the other hand, if you like to stay conservative, the SAR may provide a more definite strategy by giving stop loss levels for both sides of the market.另一方面,如果你喜欢留保守,特区可以提供一个更明确的战略,使停损水平,双方的市场份额。 The reliability of both the techniques, however, are affected by market conditions, so do take care to be aware of this when using the strategies.双方的可靠性的技术,但是,受市场条件,所以不要照顾也了解这一情况时,使用的战略。

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