042

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Late Post....

Update...I'm not going to be able to do a post until this afternoon. Sorry for the delay, but I'm catching up from a long business trip. I promise plenty of charts this evening!

Friday, February 16, 2007

As a counterpoint to God's divine message to me earlier this week, Satan himself appeared to me via the wrapper of my bread this morning. I feel I am at the vortex of a holy war. Get thee behind me, buttered toast!

On a more secular note, I received my first shipment of my book this morning at the office. Joy and rapture! It's been a very long time since I've held a book that I wrote.

This was a strong week for the bulls - particularly Wednesday - the bears can only hold on to the sliver of hope that upward momentum is still waning. That's not a heck of a lot to hang your hat on, though.

Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) is in a bit of a stuck pattern. Shorting this with a stop at $145 might be a good play (via going long puts).

Crude oil to me seems to be in a solid bearish pattern. If you believe this, there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of it (such as OIH, XOM, RIG......)

I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.

My NVDA puts picked up a bit of steam today.

I've got to hand it to the SHLD bulls - this is a dynamite looking chart. Who would have ever thought Sears, of all things, would be a superstar?

I'm going to be in Orlando for a few days for my employer's mega-event. I'll be speaking a few times. Come up and say hello. Assassins - - aim for my head!

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Seven Nation Army

I'm gonna fight 'em all
A seven nation army couldn't hold me back
They're gonna rip it off
Taking their time right behind my back

Another day, another lifetime high on the Dow. C'est la vie.

I mentioned BHI as a short a few days ago , and it got walloped. Even put options that are several months out doubled in value today. Oil in general (be it OIH or a component) is pretty attractive to my bearish eyes right now.

I'm pretty proud of this graph, so click it to see a big version. It's a minute bar of the NZD/USD forex trade I've been suggesting. The symmetry between the phases I've shown here is really intriguing to me. I've numbered it for clarity. I've been trading it both up and down (long and short) during the most recent cycle. I imagine we're about ready to head back into a long tumble now. This is a really fun currency to trade, in spite of the wide pip spread.

The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index on which to own puts right now. Put values have been getting creamed lately by (a) rapidly rising index values and (b) withering volatility premiums. A one-two punch. Call me crazy, but I am loading up on them at these levels.

Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.

BBD has a clean relationship with its Fib retracement.

This is a bigger graph than I normally show - ten years - and it's of Goldman Sachs (GS). I still love this short.

HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.

I've still got my IYR puts. They're under water, but just take a gander and how lofty this sucker is.

My MTH short is still solid. I am once again showing a bigger graph so you can understand how far this thing could fall.

OXY is another oil short worth examination.

PCU isn't as clear-cut, but it's at the top of a channel, and I'm going to nibble some puts on this one tomorrow.

042

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Late Post....

Friday, February 16, 2007

I'm Goin' to Disneyworld!

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Seven Nation Army