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 hefeiddd 2009-05-11

Tuesday, January 23, 2007


This is going to be one of those "at the airport" quickie posts.

Today the market recovered partly from yesterday's sell-off. All eyes are on earnings, naturally. We are, for the zillionth time, in a middleground where it's not clear if the market's going to push higher or lower. Just look at this graph of the Russell 2000 from the past 60 days on a minute by minute basis. Just no clear direction whatever!



ANDE, a long suggestion posted earlier in this space, is continuing to perform well. Breaking above the horizontal line would obviously be a good thing for owners of this stock.


Bank of America (BAC), on which I own puts, announced great earnings today and fell. Good.


Lastly, Health.net (HNT), although not a slam-dunk pattern, seems bearish enough to mention.


For those of you who enjoyed BillyWitchDoctor.com yesterday, I'm glad. For those who had no idea what it was about, I congratulate you on your sanity.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Ultra Chicken

I've been wrong enough to know that I'm not going to start cheering on a bear market. The market was down today. I'm glad. Maybe it'll be down a lot more this week. Which will make me happier still. But until we have a no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend, I'm keeping my furry mouth shut.

The $VIX may have formed a "V" bottom with recent activity, which would obviously be good for both put holders (me) and bears (me again).


I've mentioned AMLN a bunch recently, and it continues to behave like a good little stock (on the short side).


I take pride in being such a pure technician that I know only the ticker symbol - - I don't know the company's name, and I certainly don't know what it does. The symbol is AXR. I shorted it Friday. And today it lost double-digits of points. Nice.


I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.


Cigna is a much less volatile stock, but I see a double top here and a stairstep down these Fibonacci levels forthcoming.


Shoe god Nike is another security on which I own puts. It took a nice little stumble today, but I have much bigger ambitions on this one.


I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.


RAI is a good short in the world of metals.


...as is RTI......


Sears Holding (SHLD) is another item I've avoided, only because it has the makings of such a sensational cup with handle pattern. But this pattern is starting to look shaky, so I'm OK putting some risk capital into some puts on this one.


Lastly, a bit from one of my favorite cartoons - Aqua Teen Hunger Force. This one is only a little offensive, so you are probably safe clicking the Play button, no matter how far away you live from the coasts of this great nation.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Week's End

There was an interesting article about the GAO's report to Congress about the looming financial catastrophe facing the U.S. This is getting much less attention than it deserves. You can read the original GAO report here. For the Federal Government to issue a report sub-titled "Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today" is surprisingly candid. And you know how adept the government is at tough choices (hint: it isn't).

Here's one graphic from the report, showing how the social security trust fund is going to dip into the red in just ten years. Just look at the deficits grow to $400 billion per year!


It's been a while since I mentioned any FOREX trades, but the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) looks pretty interesting as a short. I'd say if it trades anywhere north of 73 cents, I'm wrong. I've drawn a horizontal line suggesting what seems to be a strong resistance level.


My OIH calls are doing well. All the press about crude oil's plunge in prices in a good contrarian indicator of a short-term bottom.


I mentioned Abbott Labs (ABT) a while back as a promising bullish play. It seems to be going that direction. The strong volume only helps.


Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.


One new short idea is Martin Marietta (MLM). This appears to be a solid double top. This kind of pattern is nice since the risk is relatively low (e.g. the stop price would be $114).

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