分析：对冲基金开始买铝卖铜 Traders bet on resurgent year for aluminium

2011年02月12日 07:24 AM

分析：对冲基金开始买铝卖铜

Traders bet on resurgent year for aluminium

作者：英国《金融时报》 杰克•法尔基 报道

 

For much of the past two years, aluminium was the metal everyone loved to hate. While copper, the darling of hedge funds, has raced to one record after another, hitting $10,000 a tonne last week for the first time, aluminium, the most widely used metal after steel, lagged far behind.	过去两年的大部分时间，铝成了一种“人人喊打”的金属。对冲基金的宠儿——铜价打破了一个又一个纪录，上周首次触及每吨1万美元的高位，而广泛使用程度仅次于钢的铝却远远落在了后面。
As Klaus Kleinfeld, chief executive of Alcoa, the US aluminium producer, said recently: “Whenever I go around, people are saying, my God, wouldn’t it be great if aluminium would be like copper?”	正如美国铝业(Alcoa)首席执行官柯菲德(Klaus Kleinfeld)最近所表示的：“每当我出去走访时，人们都会说，哎，如果铝像铜一样，那该多好！”
Such disparaging words may now be a thing of the past. The lightweight metal, used in consumer and industrial products from cars and planes to drinks cans, has recently been winning favour in the metals community. Strategists at RBS have made it their top pick for 2011, while Macquarie, Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank have also turned bullish.	此类贬低之词如今或许已成为过去。这种广泛应用于从汽车、飞机到饮料罐等工业与消费品的轻金属，最近在金属业界正逐渐获宠。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)策略师将其列为2011年度最佳投资选择；麦格理集团(Macquarie)、巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)与德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)也已转为看多。
Investors are beginning to take note. Hedge funds have begun to unwind one of last year’s most popular trades – that copper would outperform aluminium – by buying aluminium and selling copper. That helped push the benchmark aluminium contract above $2,500 a tonne for the first time since September 2008: on Wednesday it hit a two-year high of $2,575.25.	投资者已开始予以关注。对冲基金已开始买入铝、卖出铜，借此解除去年最受欢迎的交易之一——认为铜的表现会优于铝。在上述因素的推动下，铝基准合约自2008年9月以来首次突破了每吨2500美元：周三，铝价升至2575.25美元的两年高位。
Unlike copper, however, aluminium remains a long way from its peak of the last cycle, $3,380 in July 2008. Indeed, copper is now nearly four times as expensive as aluminium – the highest such ratio on record.	然而，和铜不一样的是，铝距离上个周期在2008年7月创下的3380美元的峰值还很遥远。事实上，铜的价格几乎是铝的4倍，为有记录以来的最高水平。
That alone is one reason some believe aluminium could rally. “Aluminium is set to play catch up and redress the imbalance,” says Nick Moore, head of commodity strategy at RBS.	仅此一点，就构成了有人认为铝价可能反弹的一个理由。苏格兰皇家银行大宗商品策略主管尼克·摩尔(Nick Moore)表示：“铝必将上演追赶行情，从而纠正这种失衡。”
More important, though, is a change in perceptions about the balance of aluminium supply and demand.	但更重要的是人们对铝供求平衡的看法发生了转变。
The most significant change is in China, where aluminium production – a notoriously energy-intensive process – has been curbed by the government’s push to reduce power consumption, culminating in power being cut off to smelters late last year.	最显著的变化发生在中国。中国政府降低电力消耗的努力（去年末甚至切断了冶炼厂的电力供给），抑制了铝的生产——众所周知，铝生产极其耗费能源。
The sharp fall in Chinese aluminium production, from about 17.5m to 14.5m tonnes on an annualised basis, has changed the balance of supply and demand in the country. Traders say that aluminium stocks in China are very rapidly being drawn down towards critical levels of about one week’s consumption, despite sales of 213,000 tonnes in December from the State Reserve Bureau, the government stockpiling agency.	中国铝产量大幅下降，折合成年率从大约1750万吨下降至1450万吨，改变了中国的供求平衡。交易员们表示，尽管中国国家物资储备局(State Reserve Bureau)去年12月抛售了21.3万吨铝锭，但中国的铝储备正在急剧下降，逼近仅够一周消耗的临界水平。
That means inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange – the visible part of China’s aluminium stock – could fall sharply. The country could even be forced to turn to the international market for supplies, driving prices higher. Alcoa has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the world has a surplus aluminium output.	这意味着，上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)的存货——中国铝储备的可见部分——可能大幅减少。中国甚至可能会被迫转向国际市场购买铝，从而推高铝价。美铝预测，尽管今年世界其它地区的铝产出将出现盈余，但中国会出现70万吨的产出缺口。
Adding to that, traders and analysts have been surprised by the strength of aluminium demand: global consumption of the metal will rise 12 per cent this year, according to Alcoa forecasts, after a 13 per cent rise last year, with the growth coming as much from the US and Europe as China or the Middle East.	此外，铝需求的旺盛程度也出乎了交易员与分析师的意料：据美铝预测，继去年上升了13%之后，今年全球的铝消费还将增长12%，其中，美欧与中国和中东的增长将大致相当。
A final upside risk to the aluminium price is the potential for the launch of new exchange-traded funds that buy up physical metal. The first two such investment products are slated to launch this quarter: ETF Securities, which in December launched ETFs in three LME-traded metals, has said it hopes to bring an aluminium ETF to market, while Credit Suisse has filed an application at the London Stock Exchange to launch its own aluminium ETF after earlier trying to launch the product in Switzerland.	铝价可能上行的最后一个因素在于，购买实物金属的新交易所交易基金(ETF)有望陆续推出。最初的两只此类投资产品将于本季度推出：ETF证券公司(ETF Securities)表示希望推出一只铝ETF；而瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)已向伦敦证交所(LSE)递交了发行自己的铝ETF的申请。ETF证券曾于去年12月推出了3种在伦敦金属交易所(LME)交易的金属的ETF。瑞信此前亦曾尝试在瑞士推出铝ETF。
All this makes a quick spurt to about $2,700 or more a tonne likely, some analysts and traders believe. But their bullishness is tempered by the massive overhang of aluminium inventories, which were built up when manufacturers slashed production during the financial crisis. There are 4.6m tonnes of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses and by some estimates total global stocks could be in excess of 10m tonnes.	一些分析师与交易员相信，所有这些因素，使得铝价有可能迅速飙升至每吨2700美元或更高。但由于制造商在金融危机期间大幅减产而累积起来的大量铝库存，却冲淡了他们的乐观情绪。在伦敦金属交易所登记的仓库中存有460万吨铝，而一些机构估计，全球总库存可能超过了1000万吨。
The existence of huge stockpiles has not led to a price crash because they are mostly locked up in long-term financing deals held by banks such as Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs or traders such as Glencore, keeping them off the market. However, the deals rely on a combination of low interest rates, financial incentives provided by warehouses and the fact that aluminium for delivery soon has traded at a large discount to longer-dated futures. Already that discount – called the “contango” – has narrowed significantly, while premiums paid in some locations above the LME price have reached record levels – both indications of tightening physical markets.	巨额库存的存在之所以没有导致价格暴跌，原因在于它们大多锁定在德意志和高盛(Goldman Sachs)等银行或嘉能可(Glencore)等交易商所持有的长期融资交易中，因而无法入市。不过，这些交易取决于下述条件同时成立：低利率、仓库提供的激励措施、以及近期交付的铝价明显低于期限较长的期货合约。这一折价——即所谓的期货溢价(contango)——已大幅收窄，而一些地方支付的高出LME价格的溢价已达到创纪录水平。这两个迹象都表明，现货市场开始吃紧。
If things turn out as the aluminium bulls predict, the rise in prices could have the effect of squeezing the international market until metal starts to come out of financing deals. Already, traders and bankers say, profitability has been significantly reduced on financing deals, making them shorter-term in nature and only available to those able to secure bargain warehousing rates.	如果事态按照看多人士预测的那样发展，那么铝价的上涨可能会对国际市场产生挤压效应，迫使铝开始从融资交易中释放出来。交易员与银行家表示，融资交易的利润已经大幅下降，实际上已迫使它们缩短了期限，而且仅适用于能够获得较低仓储费用的投资者。
Thus the bullish call comes with a hefty caveat. “Be wary of holding on for too long,” says Max Layton of Macquarie. “There is a cap to prices.”	因此，看涨建议还附带着一个有力的警告。麦格理的马克斯•莱顿(Max Layton)表示：“要谨防持有时间过长。价格是有上限的。”