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当下的不确定性 On average, the safest bet you can make about the future in any particular direction is that it won't be much different than now. Most things change slowly. Some change comes fast, but is not important -- like fashion. A lot of important change comes slowly, so you can see where it is headed -- like demographics. There is a small set of fast moving important change that is hard to predict -- the known unknowns. 平均而言，你能够为未来作做的赌注，就所有可供选择的方案里面，最安全的是那些在未来跟现在相差不大的东西。很多东西改变得很慢，一些东西改变得很快，但并不重要 - 就比如时尚。很多重要的改变是慢慢到来的，因此你可以看到变化趋势 -- 比如人口统计。有一小部分重要而快速的改变是难以预料到的 -- 已知的未知数。 In the forecasting business, "known unknowns" are called uncertainties. Since you don't know which way things will go, you need to imagine more than one scenario flowing from that unknown. At the pivot of every scenario lies a driving uncertainty. If the uncertainty leans one way, the future plays out drastically different than if it leans the other ways. 在预测行业里面，“已知的未知数”被称作不确定性。因为你不知道事情将会往那个方向发展，这样，你就需要从未知的变化情况里面想得更多。所有情况的纽带在于发展的不确定性。不确定性趋向某一方面，和不确定性趋向其它方面，未来所成呈现的将会是截然不同的样子。 In the 1950s the outcome of WII was a huge uncertainty. The entire world would unroll differently depending on who won. Usually past uncertainties seem obvious in retrospect. But at the time, they are a puzzle. Fifty years ago there were uncertainties about the civil rights movement in the US, about the future of LSD, about the impact of polio vaccines, about the level of literacy, about whether China could feed itself, and so on. In each case, more than one destiny for the question was plausible. Segregation of races could have been enforced, LSD could have been legalized, polio vaccine might not have worked, and so on. And the world would have been different. 在20世纪50年代，二战的结果是一个巨大的不确定性。整个世界被划分得如何不同，取决于谁能够胜利。通常过往的不确定性在回想时看起来非常的明确。但是在当时，他们是一个迷。50年前，关于美国的民权运动、迷幻剂的未来、脊髓灰质炎疫苗的影响、识字的水平、中国能否养活他们自己等等都存在着不确定性。每件事情当中，都有着不止一种似是而非的命运。种族分离被强制执行，迷幻药已经合法化，脊髓灰质炎疫苗可能不起作用等等。世界已经不一样了。 Today we have new uncertainties. I made a quick list of current known unknowns in my own mind. These are questions with significant impact, yet with multiple, equally plausible outcomes. I have a lot of opinions and hunches about what might happen in the future, but the following are issues that I think are important, yet I don't have a guess about how they will resolve. I can see each going several different ways. 如今我们有了新的不确定性，关于当下的已知未知数在我的脑海里列了一张快速名单。那些有重大意义的问题，而且有的会很复杂，尤其是似是而非的结果。关于未来可能会发生的事我有很多的想法和预感，下以的主题是我认为重要，而且我还猜不到它们会如何解决，我能看到每个问题都正在向着几种不同的方向发展。 What, if anything, will slow down China? Possible answers: internal revolution, population decline, environmental realities, absolutely nothing.
What information will people not share with each other? 人们将不会与彼此分享的信息是什么？ They share medical records, purchases, dreams, sex fantasies. What about their taxes? 人们共享医疗纪录、采购、梦想和性幻想，那么他们的税呢？ How many devices do we want to carry? 我们需要携带多少设备？ Ten, two, one, or none? 10个，2个，1个还是什么都不用？ What will modernize Islam? 什么将会使伊斯兰教现代化？ Will Islam's "Reformation" be political, theological, violent, or glacial? 伊斯兰教的“改革”将会是政治、神学、暴力还是冷漠？ How much bandwidth is enough? 多少兆的宽带是足够的？ We have enough pixels in a camera, enough hi-fi in our music, how many gigs/s before we no long think about it? 我们的相机里面已经有了足够的像素，音乐的质量也足够的好，要看多少场音乐会才能让我们不再去想看呢？ Will we trust governments or corporations more? 我们是否会更信任政府和企业呢？ Who do we want to run our education, libraries, police, press, courts, liscences, and communication networks? 我们想要谁来管理我们的教育、图书馆、警察、媒体、法院、认可证和通信网络呢？ What is the "natural" price of a book, movie, or song? 什么是书本、电影和音乐本该有的价格？ Once distribution and production costs fall or disappear, what will we charge for creations? 一旦分配和生产成本降低或是消失，我们靠什么来收取创作的 Will (or where will) the future ever become cool again? 未来将会再次变得寒冷吗？会是哪些地方呢？ Optimism is a necessary ingredient for innovation. What will renew it? 乐观对于创新而言是一种必要的因素，将会是什么来恢复乐观呢？ How bad are the harmful effects of surfing the net? 上网会带来多么糟糕的影响呢？ Are the bad effects of short attention temporary, inconvinient, or fatal? 这些坏的影响是暂时未引起注意，是带来不便，还是致命的呢？ Is nuclear fusion (synthetic solar) economically possible? 核聚变（人造太阳）在经济上是不可行的吗？ Making energy like the sun does might too cheap to meter or as uneconomical as a perpetual motion machine. 像太阳一样产生能量可能会太便宜以至于无法计费，或是像永动机一样太不合算。 When will Moore's Law stop? 摩尔定律会何时失效？ At least 90% of our progress today hinges on cheaper, faster computation every year. Stop one, stop the other. 目前，我们每年至少有90%的项目都取决于便宜快速的预算。把这些所的都停 There are other common questions that I have strong hunches about (climate change, national ID, the Singularity, the Tea Party, peak oil, Dec 12, 2012) so I don't consider them uncertainties, although others might. 对于其它常见的问题我也有着强烈的预感，包括：气候变化、民众的身份证、奇点、茶会、石油峰值。我不认为他们存在不确定性，尽管其它的人或许会认为他们有。 As I think of more, I'll add them. 我想得越多，这种不确定性就越多 Posted on April 7, 2011 at 11:51 PM | 8 Comments |
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