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周四，當意大利債券市場幾近崩盤，投資者不禁要問：法國將是下一個捲入歐元區蔓延漩渦的國家嗎？
僅僅幾個月前，這個問題還是不可想象的，可現在，它讓投資者發愁：他們要不要在拋售意大利和西班牙債券之後，也拋售法國債務呢？ 全球一些最大的基金現在提出，歐元區只有一個國債市場值得買進：那就是德國國債。 貝萊德(BlackRock)歐洲固定收益部門主管邁克爾?克勞茨貝格爾(Michael Krautzberger)表示：“許多市場參與者對歐元區外圍國家的敞口感到越來越緊張，有些人甚至在質疑自己所持有的法國資產。” 另一位投資界高層人士表示：“我們持有的法國、意大利和西班牙債券比重很低。我們不希望對這些舉債大國中的任何一個存在風險敞口。拍賣失敗的風險太大了。”
正是由於歐元區內部的這種恐懼蔓延，法國相對於德國的收益率息差大幅飆升。法德10年期債券的收益率息差扶搖直上，已創下166個基點的歐元時代新高。鑒於兩國都擁有AAA評級，這個息差相當大。自6月份以來，這個息差已增大五倍，僅本周就飆升36個基點。 法國官員當然明白危機的這個階段有多危險——不僅是對巴黎方面，也是對整個歐元區項目。他們對法德債券收益率之差的突然擴大憂心忡忡。 與意大利不同，法國已採取迅速行動，說服市場相信：該國正堅決執行相關計劃，擬將預算赤字削減至國內生產總值(GDP)的3%。本周，法國在不到3個月的時間里出台了第二份補充預算，其中包括2012年節省70億歐元的新措施，而五年期間將總共節省650億歐元。此前，法國已在8月份公佈節省方案，提出到2016年節省480億歐元。 同時，為限制市場出現不利於法國資產的行情，法國財長弗蘭索瓦?巴胡安(Fran?ois Baroin)周四將適用於銀行及金融業其它公司股票的賣空禁令延長3個月，這一禁令是8月份上一波市場襲擊浪潮涌來時出台的。 但是，法國政府十分明白自己處於脆弱地位，原因是法國公共財政狀況不佳，且經濟增長乏力。就在兩周前，法國總統尼古拉?薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)在電視講話中指出，法國之所以相對德國要付出溢價，是因為法國經濟較弱——自那次講話以來，法德債券收益率之差已明顯擴大。 薩科齊最擔心的是失去法國的AAA主權債務評級；隨著國債收益率不斷上升，償債成本進一步加重公共債務，就有可能引發評級遭下調。明年，法國的債務對GDP比率將升至87%以上。 不過，法國可以指出，該國與意大利之間存在一些關鍵區別。雖然法國將在明年4月舉行大選，但該國有一個穩定的政府，執政黨在議會擁有多數席位，而薩科齊的競選對手、主要反對黨候選人弗朗索瓦?奧朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)也已承諾到2013年將赤字削減至GDP的3%。 近日法國10年期國債收益率面臨上行壓力，已升至3.46%，自周一以來已上升38個基點。但這與意大利國債有著天壤之別，後者的收益率仍徘徊在7%這一重要心理關口上下，市場認為這一水平是不可持續的。 富達投資(Fidelity Investments)國際債券投資組合管理負責人吉米?史都華(Jamie Stuttard)表示：“就基本面因素而言，法國看上去不算太糟。但你不能孤立地看待法國。
“如果意大利、西班牙和比利時經濟陷入困境，也就是說法國的幾個鄰國遭遇困難，那對法國就不是一件好事。說到底，法國是歐元區紓困基金的擔保者之一，這可能消耗法國的資源，對法國造成不利。” 克勞茨貝格爾表示：“如果歐洲的種種問題得不到快速、果斷的應對，那麽即便是以往有償付能力的國家，也可能經由於貿易和信心方面的聯系，遭遇一些自我實現的問題。” 另一名投資者表示：“我們的客戶正出現恐慌。他們不想以意大利為基準，也不想持有意大利債券。法國還沒到這個地步，但正向這種局面發展。意大利之後，法國是這場危機中不可避免的下一站。” 目前法國距離危險區（國債收益率達到7%，與德國國債的收益率之差達到500個基點，促使投資者開始質疑該國有否償債能力）還相當遠。 但是，有一些嚴重問題可能削弱市場信心。主權信用評級遭下調仍是一種切實的危險：上月穆迪(Moody’s)宣佈，有可能將法國評級前景從“穩定”下調至“負面”，這家評級機構援引的理由包括歐元區危機及其對法國各銀行的潛在影響。
這不僅涉及法國，也影響到整個歐元區。歐元區紓困基金——歐洲金融穩定安排(EFSF)——在很大程度上有賴於法國保持AAA評級。 因此，若法國評級遭降，就可能在歐元區紓困基金尋求吸引全球各地的大投資者之際，給該基金增添更多我們不願意看到的挑戰。 譯者/和風 One question was on the lips of investors on Thursday after the virtual break-down of the Italian bond markets: will France be next to tumble into the eurozone’s contagion vortex? What would have been an unthinkable question only a few months ago has left investors agonising over whether they should ditch not just their Italian and Spanish bonds, but French debt too. Some of the biggest funds in the world now argue there is only one eurozone government bond market left worth buying – and that is German Bunds. Michael Krautzberger, head of European fixed income at BlackRock, says: “Many market participants are getting increasingly nervous about peripheral exposures and some even question their French holdings.” Another leading investor says: “We are massively underweight France, Italy and Spain. We don’t want to be exposed to any of these large borrowers. The risk of auction failures is too great.”
This spreading fear within the eurozone explains the sharp leap in the additional borrowing costs France has to pay over Germany. These spreads ballooned out to a euro-era record high of 166 basis points for 10-year debt, a big difference for two triple A borrowers. These spreads have risen fivefold since June and 36bp this week alone. Certainly, officials in France are aware of how dangerous this phase of the crisis could be, not just for Paris, but for the whole eurozone project as well. They have watched the sudden widening of spreads over Germany with concern. Unlike Italy, the French have taken swift action to convince markets that they are determined to stick to plans to reduce their budget deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. This week they unveiled a second supplementary budget in less than three months, including €7bn in new savings measures for 2012 in a package worth €65bn over five years. It came on top of a previous set of savings laid out in August worth €48bn up to 2016. And, in a move aimed at limiting market moves against French assets, Fran?ois Baroin, the finance minister, on Thursday extended for a further three months a ban on short-selling of bank and other financial sector shares introduced in mid-August at the height of a previous bout of market attacks. But the government is well aware that it is vulnerable because of the poor state of French public finances and faltering growth. Only two weeks ago, President Nicolas Sarkozy pointed out in a television broadcast that France paid a premium over Germany because of its weaker economy – and since then the spread has widened markedly. Mr Sarkozy fears, above all, losing France’s triple A sovereign debt rating, which rising yields on government bonds could help trigger as repayment costs mount on public debt. France’s debt to GDP ratio is due to rise above 87 per cent of GDP next year. However, France can point to key distinctions between it and Italy. Although presidential elections are due next April, it has a stable government with a parliamentary majority – and Fran?ois Hollande, the main opposition candidate who will run against Mr Sarkozy, has also pledged to reduce the deficit to 3 per cent in 2013. French 10-year yields have come under pressure, rising to 3.46 per cent, a 38 basis point increase since the start of the week. But this is nowhere near the levels of Italy, which are still hovering around the psychologically important 7 per cent level that is considered unsustainable by markets. Jamie Stuttard, head of international bond portfolio management at Fidelity Investments, says: “On a fundamental basis, France does not look too bad. But you cannot look at France on a standalone basis. “If the Italian, Spanish and Belgium economies are in trouble, that is France’s neighbours are in difficulty, then that is bad for France. Finally, it does not help France as a guarantor of the eurozone rescue fund as that could be a drain on their resources.” Mr Krautzberger says: “If the problems in Europe are not addressed quickly and decisively even previous solvent countries can run into self-fulfilling problems via the trade and confidence link.” Another investor adds: “Our clients are panicking. They don’t want to be bench-marked against Italy and they don’t want to hold Italian bonds. It is not quite like that for France, but it is going that way. The inevitable next stop after Italy in this crisis is France.” At the moment, France is a long way from the danger territory of yields of 7 per cent and spreads of 500bp over Bunds that prompt investors to start questioning whether the country is solvent or not. But there are serious issues that could undermine market confidence. A sovereign credit downgrade remains a real threat: Moody’s last month put France on notice of a possible cut in its outlook to “negative” from “stable”, citing the eurozone crisis and the potential effect on French banks.
This is a concern not just for France but for the entire eurozone. The bloc’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, relies heavily on France for its triple A status. A French downgrade therefore could add further unwelcome challenges for the eurozone’s bail-out fund as it seeks to attract big investors from around the world. |
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来自： LM0318 > 《516 人口生命》
