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Remittance corridors 汇款通道 New rivers of gold 资金流动的新方向 Remittances from unlikely places are helping poorcountries in the downturn 从意想不到的地区流出的汇款有助于穷国经济复苏 Apr 28th 2012 | TAPACHULA | from the print edition  IN TAPACHULA, a furnace of a city in southern Mexico, people line up inside an air-conditioned branch of Banco Azteca to process their remittances. Last year Mexicans received an estimated $24 billion from friends and family working abroad, mainly in the United States, with which Mexico forms the world’s busiest remittance corridor (see map). But a closer look at the Tapachulan queue shows how the remittance business is changing. Many are not Mexicans receiving cash from America, but migrant workers sending it back home to Guatemalaor Honduras.“Very similar to what happens at the other border,” observes Jorge LuisValdivieso, the bank’s regional administrator, referring to Mexico’s better-known northern frontier. 墨西哥南部的塔帕丘拉，气候炎热，是一个火炉之城。在阿兹特克银行当地的分行里，人们吹着空调，排起长长的队伍，等待办理汇兑业务。据估计，去年墨西哥收到了240亿美元的外汇。这些钱大多是在美国工作的墨西哥人向国内亲友的汇款。美国与墨西哥之间已建立起一条世界上最繁忙的汇款路线（见图）。但是如果仔细观察塔帕丘拉的那些排队者，能发现汇兑业务正在发生转变。许多办理业务的不是来兑取汇款的墨西哥人，而是准备把钱汇回瓜迪马拉或者洪都拉斯的外国劳工。当提到墨西哥更出名的北方边界时，阿兹特克银行的区域经理说：“这的情况和北方的银行发生的很相似”。 The value of remittances to poor countries is enormous. Since 1996 they have been worth more than all overseas-development aid, and for most of the past decade more than private debt and portfolio equity inflows. In 2011remittances to poor countries totalled $372 billion, according to the WorldBank (total remittances, including to the rich world, came to $501 billion).That is not far off the total amount of foreign direct investment that flowed to poor countries. Given that cash is ferried home stuffed into socks as well as by wire transfer, the real total could be 50% higher. 穷国收到的汇款金额十分巨大。自1996年以来，这些汇款的金额一直超过所有的海外开发援助，在过去十年的大多数年份，也超过了私人债务和股票组合流入。世界银行的数据显示，2011年汇往穷国的汇款总计达3720亿美元（加上汇往富国的汇款，全部汇款总计5010亿美元）。这接近流入穷国的国外直接投资的总额。如果加上私人携带回国的现金，实际汇款总额可能比显示数据多50%。 Remittances are not just big, but growing—they have nearly quadrupled since the turn of the millennium—and resilient. In 2009, when economies around the world crashed, remittances to poor countries fell by a modest 5%, and by 2010 had bounced back to record levels. By contrast, foreign direct investment inpoor countries fell by a third during the crisis, and portfolio inflows fell by more than half. “The most remarkable thing about remittances today is theircontinued growth, year after year, despite the global economic crisis,” says Dilip Ratha, head of migration and remittances at the World Bank. 汇款额不仅巨大而且一直在增长——从2000年以来，汇款额几乎增长了3倍。另外在经济复苏时，汇款额能从低谷快速反弹。2009年全球经济危机，汇往穷国的汇款仅下降了5%，2010年底就反弹回了最高水平。与此相对的是，对穷国的国外直接投资在危机中下跌了三分之一，股票流入下降了一半还多。世界银行移民汇兑机构的负责人Dilip Ratha说：“关于汇兑最值得注意的是，尽管处在全球经济危机的环境下，其总额却在逐年持续增长”。 One reason for this apparent boom is simply that the data are better. Moneysenders such as Western Union and MoneyGram have improved their reporting to central banks. Oversight has tightened since September 11th 2001. This has led to big jumps in some numbers: Nigeria posteda near-doubling of remittance receipts in 2007. Where governments are sensitive about providing information, economists have used other methods. India, for instance, subjects remittances to Bangladesh to stringent tests. But by examining migration data, the World Bank reckons thatsome $3.8 billion probably crosses the border every year. 汇款额明显增长的一个原因仅仅是因为相关数据更全面了。汇款机构，例如西联、速汇金向中央银行上报的资料得到完善。从2001年9月11日起，汇款监察更加严格。这导致一些地区的数据跨越式增长：尼日尼亚发布的数据显示，该国在2007年收到的外汇接近上年的两倍。在政府不愿提供信息的那些国家，经济学家用其他的方法计算汇款额。例如，虽然印度限制向孟加拉汇款，但世界银行通过监测移民数据，估计每年大约有38亿美金在两国间流通。 Partly thanks to these techniques, it is now known that remittances come from a wider variety of countries than was previously thought. This might inturn explain how they have avoided being affected by Wall Street’s hiccups. In 1970 46% of recorded remittances were reckoned to originate in America. By 2010 America’s share was just 17%. One big new player is the Gulf, which has sucked in migrant workers since the oil boom. Saudi Arabiais now the world’s biggest sender of remittances after America,posting $27 billion in 2010, mostly to the families of South Asians and Africans who toil on its building sites and clean its homes. More than half ofall remittances to South Asia come from the Gulf; worldwide, the region sends almost as many remittances to poor countriesas western Europe does. 部分地受益于这些方法，人们现在得知与汇款相关国家的名单比以前更广泛。这反过来又解释了人们怎么避免受华尔街波动的影响。1970年，有记录可查的汇款估计46%来自美国。到2010底，美国所占的份额仅有17%。自从石油大发现以来，大量的外国劳工涌入海湾地区，现在此地已成为一个重要的汇款来源地。继美国之后，沙特现在是世界上汇款额最大的国家。2010年沙特公布的汇款额达到了 270亿美元，绝大多数都是在沙特工作的南亚和非洲的建筑工人和清洁工汇往国内家人的汇款。汇往南亚的汇款超过一半来自海湾地区；从全球范围内来看，这一地区汇往穷国的汇款额几乎和整个西欧的一样。 Expensive oil has made Russia a big destination for immigrants, too. In 2000 it was only the 17th-biggest remitter in the world—indeed, it was a net receiver. But by 2010 it was the fourth-largest sender, dispatching nearly $19 billion, mostly to Central Asia. Remittances from Russiaare worth more than a fifth of Tajikistan’s economy (see chart). 高昂的石油价格使得俄罗斯也成了许多移民的目的国。2000年，俄罗斯在全球汇款额排名中仅列第17位——实际上，它是一个净收汇国。但是到2010年底，俄罗斯的排名已升到第四位，年汇款达到了将近190亿美元，大部分汇款汇往中亚地区。从俄罗斯汇往塔吉克斯坦的汇款额超过了塔吉克斯坦整个经济收入的五分之一(见表)。  Though they are less volatile than many types of income, remittances are not immune to fluctuations. Cash flows to Mexico last year were still 12% lower than their pre-crash peak, partly because many Mexican migrants worked in the American construction sector, which is still reeling. The “Arab spring” of 2011 made a dent in remittance receipts in the Middle East and Africa, asmigrant workers from the region fled countries such as Libya. An exception was Egypt,where receipts shot up by 14%. One reason may be that exiled Egyptians returned home with their savings; another is that a fall in property prices encouraged émigrés to snap up bargains. 虽然汇款额不像其他类型的收入那样易于波动，但是它也会波动。去年流入墨西哥的现金流比其峰值低了12%。许多墨西哥移民在美国建筑业工作，而美国的建筑业现在仍不景气，这是现金流下降的部分原因。2011年的“阿拉伯之春”导致外国劳工逃离例如利比亚之类的国家，所以中东和非洲汇款额明显减少。不过埃及是个例外，那里的收汇额激增了14%。其中一个原因可能是流亡的埃及人带着自己的积蓄回到了本国；另一个原因是不动产的价格下降刺激流亡者抢购便宜货。 Currency fluctuations can also skew remittance patterns. American greenbacks and euros are no longer sought after in those African countrieswhere currencies have appreciated sharply in real terms thanks to demand for the commodities they export. “When you send dollars back to a family in Angola, they don’t feel as rich as before,” says Marcelo Giugale of the World Bank. Workingin Europe for five years no longer buys a house back home. 货币波动也可能扭曲汇款的模式。在那些非洲国家，因为对其出口产品需求的增长，导致其货币真实价值猛烈上涨，所以美元和欧元在那些地区不再受追捧。世界银行的Marcelo Giugale说：“现在汇美元回刚果，人们不再觉得像以前那么值钱”。在欧洲工作五年赚的钱再也不够回家买栋房子了。 The question is whether migrants will react by spending longer in far-flungdestinations, or by staying closer to home. Many already go for the secondoption: one-tenth of remittances to Africacome from within the continent. South Africa sends most of its $1.4 billion inremittances to its neighbours, for example. 问题是外国劳工愿意在远离家乡的地方工作更久还是待在离家近点的地方。很多人已经选择了后者：非洲十分之一的汇款来自本大陆。例如，南非14亿美元的汇款额，绝大多数汇往其领国。 In the rich world, many countries have closed their borders to protect home-grown workers. Americahas made its southern frontier harder to cross, which partly explains the slowdown in immigration from Mexico.Emigration has risen, too, since the economy stalled. But perhaps because they know it will be harder to come back, migrants are staying longer. According to the Pew Hispanic Centre, 27% of Mexicans deported from America in 2010 had been in the country for at least a year, up from 6% in 2005. That may help explain why remittances from Americafell by only 5% in 2009, whereas in Britain, which has open borders with some of its biggest senders of immigrants, they fell by 27% (exchange rates played a part, too). Stricter border controls keep migrants in as well asout, and the remittances flowing. 在富裕的地区，许多国家封锁边界以保护本国的工人。美国已严格限制外国人由其南部边界入境，这可以部分解释为什么墨西哥移民势头下降。自从经济低迷以来，移民的数量也有所上升。但是也许是因为他们知道一旦回国，将更难回来，所以逗留的时间更长了。据Pew Hispanic中心的数据，2010年被驱逐出境的墨西哥人，27%在美国待了至少一年，这一数据比2005年上涨了5%。这有助于解释为什么从美国的汇款在2009年仅下降了5%，而同期，英国虽然对其最大的移民汇款国开放了边界，但其汇款额却下降了27%（汇率变化也对其有影响）。更严格的边界限制使得移民难以入境，也延长了移民逗留的时间，还影响了汇款总额。 from the print edition | Finance and economics
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