|
[Buttonwood] [2012-5-19]Here we go again 重蹈覆辙 Buttonwood Here we go again 重蹈覆辙 Another stockmarket rally peters out 新一轮的股市复苏态势逐渐消失 074 Finance and economics - Buttonwood.mp3 (1.83 MB, 下载次数: 6) May 19th 2012 | from the print edition THE pattern is eerily familiar. Investors start the year in a blaze of optimism, hoping that the euro zone has been stabilised and that the American economy is growing strongly. By the late spring, the latest example of euro-zone “make and mend” policies shows signs of fraying and the American recovery is proving less robust than hoped. The same description of events applies to both 2011 and 2012, even if last year’s market correction was also triggered by special factors—the terrible damage resulting from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, along with the Libyan civil war. 这种周而复始的模式同以往的经历惊人地相似。年初，投资者们满怀希望和信心，憧憬着欧元区经济态势的稳定和美国经济的走强。然而到今天三四月份，欧元区“拆东墙补西墙”的政策在实施过程中显现出吃力的迹象，而美国的经济复苏情况也比预期稍显乏力。这与2011年的经济态势如出一辙，虽然去年的市场修正行情是由于某些特殊情况引起的，如日本地震海啸以及利比亚内战。 This year’s rally really began in late November, and got much of its impetus from the €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in three-year loans made by the European Central Bank to the region’s banking system. But the effect of the ECB’s liquidity package has quickly worn off. The MSCI World stockmarket index had gained 12.6% at one stage this year but has seen that advance cut to 2.7%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen by 6% in dollar terms; Spanish shares are off by 21%. 今年的经济复苏态势实际上始于去年的11月末，主要动力来自于欧洲中央银行对欧盟地区银行系统注入的三年期、总金额达10000亿欧元（13000亿美元）的贷款。但是欧洲央行的这一针对流动性的一揽子计划的效果却很快被冲抵了。摩根士丹利世界股指曾一度预测今年股指将上涨12.6%，然而现在已经将这一预期降至2.7%。在欧洲，欧元区斯托克50指数下降了6%（以美元计），而西班牙股指下降了21%。 Investors have retreated to the safety of selected government bonds. Since the start of 2012, the yields on British and German ten-year government bonds have fallen to levels that are pretty much unprecedented; French yields are a third of a point lower. American yields have fallen, too, but not by as much. The yields on ten-year Bunds are now almost 40 basis points lower than those on Treasuries. 投资者因此退而求其次而将目光锁定在安全性较高的政府债券上。自2012年初开始，英国和德国十年期政府债券的收益率大幅下降，创下了历史新低；法国政府债券的收益率也降低了三分之一。美国政府债券的收益率也小幅下降。十年期公债较十年期国债的收益率要低大约40个基准点。 In the periphery the government of Mario Monti in Italy has been more successful in calming the markets than that of Mariano Rajoy in Spain. At the start of the year Italian ten-year yields were almost 150 basis points higher than those of Spain; now they are around 45 basis points lower (see chart). But both are again moving in the wrong direction. 就外围国家而言，马里奥?蒙蒂所领导的意大利政府在稳定市场方面要比以马里亚诺?拉霍伊为首的西班牙政府成功得多。在今年年初，意大利十年期政府债券的收益率要高于西班牙将近150个基准点，然现如今却低于西班牙政府债券近45个基准点（见附图）。但是两国国债的收益率又开始呈现上升的趋势。 In many ways, the debt crisis confronts euro-zone leaders with a dilemma similar to that facing governments when the banking sector crumbled in 2007 and 2008. Back then, policymakers were forced to distinguish between those banks that were illiquid and just needed emergency loans, and those that were insolvent and needed injections of capital. For a time the authorities appeared to be clueless about this distinction, causing investor alarm. But the American authorities in particular managed to draw a line under their financial crisis by injecting new capital into the (sometimes unwilling) banks and by showing that those banks could pass fairly rigorous stress tests in May 2009. A vigorous equity rally duly occurred. 欧元区领导人们现因欧债危机而陷入一种两难的处境，而这种境况同他们在2007年和2008年因银行业崩溃而面临的处境在很多方面都十分类似。当时，决策者们都不得不对银行进行分类处理，即将那些仅因流动性短缺而需要注入应急贷款的银行同那些无偿债能力并需要注入资本的银行一一区分开来。在一段时间里，各政府当局似乎都对如何进行这样的区分毫无头绪，以致引起了投资者恐慌。但是美国政府当局却通过向本国的某些银行注资（有时并非心甘情愿），并使得这些银行在2009年5月顺利通过了十分严格的压力测试而遏止了金融危机的蔓延。自此股市开始出现有力的复苏行情。 In contrast, Europe’s leaders have spent much of the past two years treating Greece as a liquidity problem when it is really insolvent. Some of the country’s debts have been forgiven, but not enough. Of course, Europe’s problems are more deep-seated than America’s, thanks to the principal flaw in the euro’s design: that it is a single currency operating in a continent without fiscal union. Politically, it is very hard to reach quick decisions when 17 governments are involved. 与此相反，在过去两年的大部分时间里，欧洲领导人们都将希腊金融行业的偿债能力问题当做了流动性问题来看待。希腊部分债务已经被免除，但是这并不足以扭转局势。当然我们也必须认识到，由于欧洲金融体系本身的重大缺陷（即在未形成财政联盟的情况下，实施单一货币政策），欧洲所面临的危机在程度上较美国而言更为深层次化。并且在政治方面，相较于单一国家而言，十七个成员国在达成一致意见方面也要滞后很多。 But even those countries that are not in the zone have failed to generate the kind of rapid economic growth that has marked previous recoveries. Corporate profits have held up pretty well in the circumstances, which is one reason why the markets are still well ahead of their 2009 levels. But the corollary of those high profits has been depressed real wages, which have weighed on consumer demand. And companies have so far tended to sit on their cash (see Free Exchange), rather than invest in new plant and equipment or hire new workers. 但即使是那些欧元区以外的国家的经济发展速度也未能达到上一次经济复苏时的水平。然而就在这种情况下，企业收益却在保持增长，这也是如今市场行情仍然要好于2009年的一个重要原因。但是高收益带来的却是对实际工资收入的削减，以致对市场消费需求的增长形成压力。因此现如今，相较于投资建设新工厂、买入新设备或招聘新员工而言，各类企业都倾向于坐拥大笔现金。 All this has left the markets desperately waiting for a new “hit” from their central banks, in the form of quantitative easing or additional liquidity support. Each central-bank statement is closely analysed for signs of change, rather as Kremlinologists used to study Politburo photographs for hints of leadership reshuffles. 基于以上种种，各国股市都亟待其各自央行通过实施量化宽松政策或增加流动性支持来刺激市场行情。各国投资者对其央行发布的报告进行细致的分析研究，以期从中发现某些变化的迹象。这种方法就同苏俄政体研究者常用的通过对政治局相关照片进行研究而发现国家领导班子重组迹象的方法一样。 Like the adrenalin injected into an overdosing Uma Thurman’s heart in “Pulp Fiction”, these central-bank boosts usually provoke an immediate market reaction. But a repeated regime of heroin and adrenalin injections hardly makes for a healthy lifestyle. While it lasts central-bank action means that equity markets are unlikely to crash, since the yields on cash and bonds are so low. At a conference this week organised by Morningstar, a research firm, one fund manager pointed out that Royal Dutch Shell shares yield 4.8%, whereas its bonds pay just 1.5%. But the prospect of markets standing on their own two feet—of surviving without the crutch of massive monetary easing—looks as far away as ever. 在影片《低俗小说》中，为了救活吸毒过量的乌玛?瑟曼，一剂肾上腺素被注射进了她的心脏里。就像这一剂肾上腺素一般，央行的刺激措施通常会引发直接的市场反应并起到暂时救市的作用。但是这种反复吸食毒品和注射肾上腺素的方式，不可能成为一种健康的生活方式。尽管央行的此类举措不断，但由于现金和债券的收益率都保持在较低水平，因此不会对股市产生冲击。在本周由晨星公司（一个研究机构）举办的会议上，一名基金经理指出荷兰皇家壳牌公司的股票实际收益率为4.8%，而其公司债券只支付了1.5%。在没有大规模货币宽松政策的支持下，市场独立运作的期望看似很难成为现实。 |
|
|
