RiskRewardandMoneyManagementinForexTrading
外汇交易的风险/回报与资金管理
ThiscouldpossiblybethemostimportantForextradingarticleyoueverread.Thatmightsoundlikea
boldstatement,butit’sreallynottooboldwhenyouconsiderthefactthatpropermoneymanagementis
themostimportantingredienttosuccessfulForextrading.
这可能是你看过的最重要的外汇交易文章。这听起来像是一个很夸大的声明,但当你心里明白认同,正确
的资金管理是成功地进行外汇交易的重要的组成部分时,这就显得并不那么夸大了。
MoneymanagementinForextradingisthetermgiventodescribethevariousaspectsofmanagingyour
riskandrewardoneverytradeyoumake.Ifyoudon''tfullyunderstandtheimplicationsofmoney
managementaswellashowtoactuallyimplementmoneymanagementtechniques,youhaveavery
slimchanceofbecomingaconsistentlyprofitabletrader.
外汇交易的资金管理指对你所作出的每一笔交易的风险和回报进行多方面的控制和调整的管理。如果你没
有切实了解资金管理技术是如何有效地管理好资金的话,那么,你成为一个持续盈利的交易者的可能是非
常渺茫的。
Iamgoingtoexplainthemostimportantaspectsofmoneymanagementinthisarticle;risk/reward,
positionsizing,andfixeddollarriskvs.percentagerisk.So,grabacupofyourfavoritebeverageand
followalongasIhelpyouunderstandsomeofthemostcriticalconceptstoaprofitableForextrading
career:
在这篇文章中,我要来解释资金管理中最重要的几个方面,风险/回报、仓位控制,和固定金额风险VS百
分比风险。因此,请你倒上一杯喜欢的饮料,我来明白那能你有利可的外汇交易的
。
?RiskReward风险回报
Riskrewardisthemostimportantaspecttomanagingyourmoneyinthemarkets.However,many
tradersdonotcompletelygrasphowtofullytakeadvantageofthepowerofriskreward.Everytraderin
themarketwantstomaximizetheirrewardsandminimizetheirrisks.Thisisthebasicbuildingblockto
becomingaconsistentlyprofitabletrader.Theproperknowledgeandimplementationofriskreward
givestradersapracticalframeworktodothis.
风险回报是管理你的资金中的最重要的一个方面。,很多的交易者没有如何分地利
风险回报的。每一个交易者,要最大地的?¢回报,并£?最¥?所§currency1的风险
''。这是成为持续盈利的交易者的“?要?,对风险回报的?当了解和实fi能fl交易者一个–这?
的实?·。
Manytradersdonottakefulladvantageofthepowerofriskrewardbecausetheydon''thavethe
patiencetoconsistentlyexecutealargeenoughseriesoftradesinordertorealizewhatriskrewardcan
actuallydo.Riskrewarddoesnotmeansimplycalculatingtheriskandrewardonatrade,itmeans
understandingthatbyachieving2to3timesriskormoreonallyourwinningtrades,youshouldbeable
tomakemoneyoveraseriesoftradesevenifyoulosethemajorityofthetime.Whenwecombinethe
consistentexecutionofarisk/rewardof1:2orlargerwithahigh-probabilitytradingedgelikeprice
action,wehavetherecipeforaverypotentForextradingstrategy.
多交易者没有能?分利好风险回报的,因为???心和”持,?…行一‰??大`的
交易′实??的风险回报效果。风险回报并不ˉ?˙¨地?交易上的风险和回报。这ˉ?交易者的
盈利交易的回报???–所§currency1风险的2ˇ3—ˇ,这,你在一‰的交易中的一大部分
是的,你能?–盈利。当我一个?的交易技如Priceaction”和比?能?–1:2
ˇ的风险回报?切实的并…行时,我有了一个有效能的外汇交易?的a方了。
Let''stakealookatthe4hrchartofGoldtoseehowtocalculaterisk/rewardonapinbarsetup.Wecan
seeinthechartbelowtherewasanobviouspinbarthatformedfromsupportinanup-trendingmarket,
sothepriceactionsignalwassolid.Next,wecalculatetherisk;inthiscaseourstoplossisplacedjust
belowthelowofthepinbar,sowewouldthencalculatehowmanylotswecantradegiventhestop
lossdistance.Wearegoingtoassumeahypotheticalriskof$100forthisexample.Wecanseethis
setuphassofargrossedarewardof3timesrisk,whichwouldbe$300.
我来看看金的4¥时?,看看如何在??o交易‰中?风险回报。我看–?的方,在
一个上?的的持位中了一个明显的??o,所′这个?行为的?是?对可?的。
一?,我来?风险在这个的之,我把止放在稍低??o低?的方位,?在
我可′来?一我?多少手数来交易这一段止距离。假设我决定只愿ˉ§担100美元的风
险,我可′看–,这个交易机会会为我带来3—风险的?¢,这是300美元。
Now,witharewardof3timesrisk,howmanytradescanweloseoutofaseriesof25andSTILLmake
money?Theansweris18tradesor72%.That''sright;youcanlose72%ofyourtradeswitharisk/
rewardof1:3orbetterandSTILLmakemoney…..overaseriesoftrades.
好,?在我获得一个3—风险的预期回报,假设我对这个预期进行25笔的交易,那我可′在
其中多少笔的情,能?–盈利呢?答是18笔或者72%。没错!不怀疑你的耳朵,我
的确说的是:′1:3的风报?ˇ来进行一‰的交易,就?72%的交易笔数你是的,你能
–最终是盈利的。
Hereisthemathrealquick:18losingtradesat$100risk=-$1800,7winningtradeswitha3R(risk)
reward=$2100.So,after25tradesyouwouldhavemade$300,butyoualsowouldhavehadto
endure18losingtrades…andthetrickisthatyouneverknowwhenthelosersarecoming.Youmight
get18losersinarowbeforethe7winnerspopup,thatisunlikely,butitISpossible.
′是快速的数学:每笔100美元的风险X18笔的=-$1800,7笔的成功盈利X3—风险的回报=
$2100。所′,在25笔交易之后,你能?有300美元的获利,但你不得不忍currency118笔的...可吊诡
的是:你不知道什么时候会来临。你可能会在7笔盈利实?之前连续18笔,这听起来运气糟透
了,但这是可能的。
So,risk/rewardessentiallyallboilsdowntothismainpoint;youhavetohavethefortitudetosetand
forgetyourtradesoveralargeenoughseriesofexecutionstorealizethefullpowerofrisk/reward.
Now,obviouslyifyouareusingahigh-probabilitytradingmethodlikepriceactionstrategies,youaren''t
likelytolose72%ofthetime.So,justimaginewhatyoucandoifyouproperlyandconsistently
implementriskrewardwithaneffectivetradingstrategylikepriceaction.
所′,风险回报的核心可′归–这一个重?上来你必须有毅力并且满功?地?贯彻…行围绕风险
回报这一主旨所制定的??庞大的一‰交易。?在,很显,假如你正一个如Priceaction”?‰
统这的?交易方法的话,你是绝对不会失72%的交易的。所′,想象一你可′什么,如果
你在像Priceaction”这有效的交易?的前正确地贯彻落实风险回报。
Unfortunately,mosttradesareeithertooemotionallyundisciplinedtoimplementriskrewardcorrectly,or
theydon''tknowhowto.Meddlinginyourtradesbymovingstopsfurtherfromentryornottakinglogical
2or3Rprofitsastheypresentthemselvesaretwobigmistakestradersmake.theyalsotendtotake
profitsof1Rorsmaller,thisonlymeansyouhavetowinamuchhigherpercentageofyourtradesto
makemoneyoverthelong-run.Remember,tradingisamarathon,notasprint,andtheWAYYOUWIN
themarathonisthroughconsistentimplementationofriskrewardcombinedwiththemasteryofatruly
effectivetradingstrategy.
不幸的是,大多数交易者情绪?和??纪律性阻碍了风险回报的正确贯彻和…行,或者根?不知道?
如何…行。自入位向不利的方向扩大止或者把获利位设在不符2和3—风险的没有逻辑性的位
,这是交易者容易犯的最重大的两个错误。往往采取仅1—风险的获利ˇ少,这ˉ?从
长期交易盈利的角,你必须能创比的交易成功?。请记住,交易是一马拉松,不是短跑,
你赢得马拉松利的方法就是通过真正有效的交易?和风险回报的贯彻实fi。
?PositionSizing仓位控制
Positionsizingisthetermgiventotheprocessofadjustingthenumberoflotsyoutradetomeetyour
pre-determinedriskamountandstoplossdistance.Thatisabitofaloadedsentenceforthenewbie''s.
So,let''sbreakitdownpiecebypiece.Thisishowyoucalculateyourpositionsizeoneverytradeyou
make:
仓位控制是调整交易的头寸的数?′符你预先设定的风险金额和止距离的一个?骤。这一?对新手
来说是一个¥难?。所′,我来各个击破。′是你如何?每一笔交易的仓位控制的?骤:
1)Firstyouneedtodecidehowmuchmoneyindollars(orwhateveryournationalcurrencyis)youare
COMFORTABLEWITHLOSINGonthetradesetup.Thisisnotsomethingyoushouldtakelightly.
YouneedtogenuinelybeOKwithlosingonanyONEtrade,becauseaswediscussedinthe
previoussection,youcouldindeedloseonANYtrade;youneverknowwhichtradewillbeawinner
andwhichwillbealoser.
1)先你要确定在你的交易‰里,每交易,多少美元或者?成你的?的失你可′
currency1不会心的。这可不是你可′′心的。你必须确定当你失何一笔交易的时候你的心情必须
是的,因为我在上一过,你确实会失何一笔的交易你并不知道一笔最终会盈利
和一笔最终会。
2)Findthemostlogicalplacetoputyourstoploss.Ifyouaretradingapinbarsetupthiswillusually
bejustabove/belowthehigh/lowofthetailofthepinbar.Similarly,theothersetupsIteach
generallyhave“ideal”placestoputyourstoploss.Thebasicideaistoplaceyourstoplossata
levelthatwillnullifythesetupifitgetshit,orontheothersideofanobvioussupportorresistance
area;thisislogicalstopplacement.WhatyoushouldNEVERDO,isplaceyourstoptoocloseto
yourentryatanarbitrarypositionjustbecauseyouwanttotradeahigherlotsize,thisisGREED,
anditwillcomebacktobiteyoumuchharderthanyoucanpossiblyimagine.
2)–并把止放在最理的地方。如果你是根??o?来交易的,那通常?把止放在??o的
o的?′上或低?′。同的,我所过的其的交易`的,有各自的理想的止
位的。其“??是,假如你所设的止¢击£,那么所在的?/阻力¥?为§效。设在
明显的?/阻力currency1''的“一?这?是符逻辑的止设。你不??的是:因为你持有了重仓把
止?ˉ地放在fi?fl你入?的位,这是–,会回头来?你比你能想象的可?。
3)Next,youneedtoenterthenumberoflotsormini-lotsthatwillgiveyouthe$riskyouwantwiththe
stoplossdistanceyouhavedecidedisthemostlogical.Onemini-lotistypicallyabout$1perpip,soif
yourpre-definedriskamountis$100andyourstoplossdistance50pips,youwilltrade2mini-lots;$2
perpipx50pipstoploss=$100risked.
3)来,你要最理地根你预先·的能§currency1多少美元的风险来确定止距离,从?出??
的入多少手数或是多少?你手。一个?你手通常大?每一?的??是1美元,所′如果你预先设定的风
险金额是100美元,止距离在50?的时候,你就可′”?2个?你手头寸2美元/?X50?止
=100美元风险。
Thethreestepsabovedescribehowtoproperlyusepositionsizing.Thebiggestpointtorememberis
thatyouNEVERadjustyourstoplosstomeetyourdesiredpositionsize;insteadyouALWAYSadjust
yourpositionsizetomeetyourpre-definedriskandlogicalstoplossplacement.ThisisVERY
IMPORTANT,readitagain.
′上…个?骤‰了如何正确头寸的大¥。你要记住的最重要的要?是:你?不要?调整你
的止位来对你的仓位控制?`,你?′是只调整你头寸的大¥来对你预先定?的风险和
理的止位。这?非常重要,?一ˉ。
Thenextimportantaspectofpositionsizingthatyouneedtounderstand,isthatitallowsyoutotrade
thesame$amountofriskonanytrade.Forexample,justbecauseyouhavetohaveawiderstopona
tradedoesn’tmeanyouneedtoriskmoremoneyonit,andjustbecauseyoucanhaveasmallerstop
onatradedoesnotmeanyouwillrisklessmoneyit.Youadjustyourpositionsizetomeetyourpre-
determinedriskamount,nomatterhowbigorsmallyourstoplossis.Manybeginningtradersget
confusedbythisandthinktheyareriskingmorewithabiggerstoporlesswithasmallerstop;thisisnot
necessarilythecase.
“一个你要?˙的仓位控制的重?是,¨你在何一笔交易里§currency1?同数额的风险。如,你
并不要因为不得不设一个为??的止?大数?金额的风险,或者因为你可′设一个¥
的止??对就¥金额的风险。你只要调整头寸的大¥来你预设的止金额,与你的止
的大¥§。多?入ˇ的交易者会—调整止的大¥来控制所§currency1的风险这是不一定的情。
Let’stakealookatthecurrentdailychartoftheEURUSDbelow.Wecanseetwodifferentpriceaction
tradingsetups;apinbarsetupandaninside-pinbarsetup.Thesesetupsrequireddifferentstoploss
distances,butaswecanseeinthechartbelowwestillwouldrisktheexactsameamountonboth
trades,thankstopositionsizing:
我来看看′EUR/USD的o。我能看–有两个不同的Priceactiontrading”?·一个
是??o·,一个是部·。这·要设不同的止距离,但我可′看–在′的?里,
我在两¨交易里同数额的风险,这得¢仓位控制:
?Fixed$riskvs.%risk固定金额风险VS百分百风险
InapreviousarticlethatIwroteaboutmoneymanagementtitled“ForexTradingMoneyManagement–
AnEyeOpeningArticle”,Iarguedthatusingafixeddollaramountofriskissuperiortothepercentof
accountriskmodel.TheprimaryargumentImakeaboutthistopicisthatalthoughthe%Rmethodwill
growanaccountrelativelyquicklywhenatraderhitsaseriesofwinners,itactuallyslowsaccount
growthafteratraderhitsaseriesoflosers,andmakesitverydifficulttobringtheaccountbackupto
whereitpreviouslystood.Thisisbecausewiththe%Rriskmodelyoutradefewerlotsasyouraccount
valuedecreases,whilethiscanbegoodtolimitlosses,italsoessentiallyputsyouinarutthatisvery
hardtogetoutof.Whatisneededismasteryofone''stradingstrategycombinedwithafixeddollarrisk
youarecomfortablewithlosingonanygiventrade,andwhenyoucombinethesefactorswithconsistent
executionofrisk/reward,youhaveanexcellentchanceatmakingmoneyoveraseriesoftrades.
在之前的文章中,我?了一篇为外汇交易资金管理”的文章,我认为固定金额止
百分比风险止`。我对这个话的主要?是,交易者通过百分比风险`的方法,
过一‰连续盈利后得的长?对快,但实上,当交易者在往后连?的交易后得
的长放后,就很难能长能a之前的。这是因为当?在少的情,采
百分比风险`所能进行交易的手数?的少了,这必有利你控制失,但同时你?入难′
??的o。我要的是,一交易?并其和固定美元金额风险在一起?成每一笔定
的交易,当你能这因?和切实…行风险回报的时候,你就有了一个好的几??通过一‰的交
易来盈利。
Manyprofessionaltradersusethefixeddollarriskmethodbecausetheyknowthattheyhavemastered
theirForextradingstrategy,theydon''tover-trade,andtheydon''tover-leverage,sotheycansafelyrisk
asetamounttheyarecomfortablewithlosingonanytrade.Theflipsideofthisisthatprotraders
actuallywithdrawaltheirprofitsfromtheirtradingaccounteachmonth,theiraccountthengoesbackto
its“baseline”level.The%Rmethodcausestraderstobeinanearperpetualdraw-downstateafter
hittingalargeseriesoflosers,becausetheyarenowriskingamuchsmalleramountofmoney,thiscan
havetheeffectofcausingthetradertonevergethisorheraccountbacktobreakeven.
多交易?固定美元风险的法来交易,因为知道自了一自的外汇交易?,
不过交易,没有过的?,所′能?松的currency1在‰数的风险何失的交
易。与此?`的是,有交易?每?从中取利?,从?回–一个“?¥。采百分比风险
`方法,交易者在一‰大的交易之后,fl缩的状态我按:除非追加
保证金,因为?在由资金的缩¥,得可′§currency1风险的金额?缩¥了,这交易
者?难′回–盈衡?上来。
Let''stakealookatahypotheticalexampleof25trades.Wearecomparingthefixed$riskmodeltoa
2%accountriskmodel.It''squiteobviousuponanalyzingthisseriesofrandomtradesthatthefixed$
modelissuperior.Sureyouwilldrawyouraccountdownabitquickerwhenyouhitaseriesoflosers
withthefixed$model,buttheflipsideisthatyoualsobuildyouraccountmuchquickerwhenyouhita
seriesofwinners.
我来看看′25交易的假想?。我对固定金额风险`和2%风险`进行对比。很显
,过一‰?机交易后显示采固定金额风险`是的。当这会你在一失交易
后,缩¥比快,但从“一面看,你同能在一‰盈利交易后迅速长起来。
Nowthisexampleisabitextreme,ifyouaretradingwithpriceactiontradingstrategiesandhavetruly
masteredthem,youshouldn''tbelosing68%ofthetime;yourwinningpercentageislikelytoaverage
closeto50%.Youcanimaginehowmuchbettertheresultswouldbewitha50%winningpercentage.
Ifyouwon50%ofthetimeover25tradeswhilerisking$100ona$2,000account,youwouldhave
$4,500.Ifyouwon50%ofthetimeover25tradeswhilerisking2%of$2,000,youwould
haveonlyabout$3,300.
这个?有?端,假如你运Priceaction”交易?并且熟练地,你是绝对不会失68%的
交易的你的?均?fl50%。你能?想象–假如你的??–50%的话果会有多么亮丽。如果
你在起始资金为$2,000的上按每交易$100的风险来进行25笔交易,且成功?在50%的话,
果你的有了$4,500。假如你的是2%风险`,同?50%来进行这25笔交易,
果最后你只能?–大?$3,300。
So,theconclusionfromthisarticleisasfollows.TosucceedattradingtheForexmarkets,youneedto
notonlythoroughlyunderstandrisk/reward,positionsizing,andriskamountpertrade,youalsoneed
toconsistentlyexecuteeachoftheseaspectsofmoneymanagementincombinationwithahighly
effectiveyetsimpletounderstandtradingstrategylikepriceaction.
因此,?文的如:要取得在外汇的交易成功,你不¨要彻底懂风险/回报,仓位控制,和每¨
交易的风险金额,你还要把′上有资金管理的各因?贯彻…行一效明显且˙¨易懂如
Priceaction”这的交易?上来。
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