| The nervous fit that characterises US financial markets today illustrates how addicted they have become to the Federal Reserve’s continuing injection of exceptional liquidity. But however upset financiers are that the Fed may soon “taper” the medication it is administering in the form of asset purchases, this move will only take place because the US economy is strong enough to stand on its own feet. That will be good for its financial markets too. The rest of the world has more cause to worry. | | 目前美国金融市场紧张的氛围表明，他们已经多么离不开美联储(Fed)持续为市场注入的超常流动性。但不管金融界人士对美联储可能很快“逐步退出”资产购买计划有多不爽，退出行动只会在美国经济已能够自立的情况下才会开始。美国经济能够自立，对美国金融市场也是个好消息。相反，其他国家才更有理由担忧。 |
| Bond and stock investors both took fright this week. The S&P 500 slid by 1.4 per cent on Thursday; 10-year Treasury bonds ended the week at their highest yield in two years. The trigger was a better than expected jobs report – first-time unemployment benefit claims were the lowest since before the crisis – and an uptick in inflation. | | 上上周，债券和股票投资者都受到了惊吓。上上周四，标普500指数(S&P 500)下跌1.4%；上上周五，10年期国债收益率收于两年来最高点。这一切都缘于两点：一份好于预期的就业情况报告（显示首次申请失业救济的人数创下金融危机以来的最低纪录）、以及通胀率上升。 |
| This was another splash of the waves created by Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chairman, in June. Then, he said the Fed may start slowing the growth of its balance sheet by the end of the year, so long as the economy strengthened as expected. His intention was to stabilise the market by preparing it for the eventual policy change. The result was the opposite. Ever since, traders have been hanging on each data update, sending prices up or down depending on whether it was seen as making “tapering” more or less imminent. | | 这是美联储主席本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)6月言论引发的又一场波动。当时他说，只要经济走势如预期转强，美联储可能会在年底前开始降低其资产负债表增长速度。他此言的意图是为了让市场为最终的政策变革提前做好准备，从而稳定市场。但提前放风的结果适得其反。从那之后，交易商就一直在紧盯数据更新，导致市场价格根据美联储开始“逐步退出”资产购买计划可能性的强弱变化上涨或者下跌。 |
| The overall trend has, however, been for funds to leave the bonds that served as havens when things looked bad. The market value of 10-year Treasuries fell by about 10 per cent in the two months to July. That is enough to count among the 15 worst sell-offs in half a century of Treasury market history. | | 但整体上的趋势是，资金在流出债券市场（债市在市场前景不佳时被投资者视为避险港湾）。7月之前的两个月里，10年期国债的市值下跌了10%左右。此次抛售的糟糕程度在国债市场50年历史里足以排进前15名。 |
| This volatility shows two things: that the Fed’s “forward guidance” about its future policy intentions is a difficult tool to handle; but also that it was the right policy to adopt. Directly managing expectations of future policy amplifies the power of controlling the money supply – yet as the past few months have shown, this is a pendulum that can swing far away from the ultimate intended target. Even so, the Fed will get to where it wants eventually. Its guidance is explicitly tied to the state of the economy: if the expectations of tightening that are now priced in by markets even begin to hurt growth, those expectations will change. A built-in safety valve protects the recovery from being stifled. | | 这种波动性突显了两点：美联储关于其未来政策的“前瞻性指导”是一个很难把握的工具，但进行“前瞻性指导”也是应当采取的正确政策。通过直接操控市场对未来政策的预期，央行扩大了自己对货币供应的控制力。然而，如过去几个月的情况所示，这种直接操控产生的结果也可能严重偏离预定的目标。即使如此，美联储最终还是会实现其预定目标。“前瞻性指导”明确与经济状况挂钩：如果现在已经影响到市场价格的紧缩预期甚至开始阻碍增长，那么这些预期就会改变。一个内置的安全阀可以避免复苏受阻。 |
| Other economies are not so lucky. Rising market interest rates in the US can do a lot of damage as they affect markets elsewhere. Credit conditions in Europe could tighten, complicating the job of European central banks. Emerging economies, which rode the wave of rich-country liquidity hard, are yet more exposed to sudden reversals in capital flows. There is a risk that when the US squeezes, the rest of the world stops cold. | | 其他经济体就没有这么幸运了。美国市场利率的上涨会影响其他地方的市场，从而可能造成许多损失。欧洲的信贷状况可能会收紧，从而令欧洲各央行的工作更加棘手。如果资金流动突然转向，严重依赖富国流动性的新兴经济体面临的损失将更大。现在有一个风险就是，美国开始紧缩的时候，世界其他地方可能彻底歇菜。 |
| | | 译者/王慧玲 |
