There are many ways to create a dismembered Ukraine, an annexed Crimea, and a
new Cold War, or Cold-War style standoff. And the current political wrestling
over Ukraine, is making these outcomes increasingly likely.
There is only one way to prevent these potentially devastating scenarios from
materializing. Compromise may not be a favored option for any party, especially
when Kiev fancies European Union and United States support, and the EU and the
US are betting on Russia's fear of sanctions, and Russia has the upper hand in
Crimea, but all the parties must take a step back if they are to emerge from the
current crisis a winner.
Certainly, there will be no winners only losers if today's confrontation is
allowed to persist and escalate.
Ukraine may see its territorial integrity compromised or face a deeper
political divide at home. Russia may find the Crimea in its embrace, but risk
isolation and sanctions. Even if the Ukraine draws closer to the EU, a Cold-War
style showdown with Russia will only incur unaffordable economic and security
costs. While a new round of confrontation, not to mention another full-blown
Cold War with Russia will inevitably erode the US' global leadership.
The present rhetoric is dangerous in that it is bogging all those concerned
into the quagmire of such an all-lose scenario.
However, the biggest danger is neither Crimea's undecided status, nor the
messy situation in Ukraine, it is the persistence of the Cold War thinking that
has been fanning the flames of the crisis.
The crisis was at first a matter of domestic political strife within Ukraine.
Russian involvement was natural given the substantial Russian interests at
stake, and Moscow has moved prudently and within international law. But the
West's eagerness to portray the crisis as a clash between freedom and
oppression, imperialism and self-determination, even between East and West, is
an ominous reminder of the Cold War.
Such Cold-War thinking does no good except to create a antagonistic edge to
the crisis.
Ukraine's territorial integrity deserves respect; so do Russia's legitimate
interests. But this will be impossible if things are approached in a Cold-War
manner.
It is ultimately upon the Ukrainians themselves to position their country
between Russia and Europe, and this will prove a test for both the people and
government of Ukraine.