ABCGlobalResearch艾略特波浪理论入门介绍MurrayGunnCFTeHeadofTechnicalAnalysisHSBCBankplc中文翻译由河源外汇论坛友情提供技术分析2011年7月河源外汇论坛at:http://www.0762jr.comIssuerofreport:DisclosuresandDisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit让你的朋友惊叹的数字游戏！Source:HSBC1.618=Phi累加生长和衰亡黄金比例/黄金平衡/黄金分割混沌背后的规律.382.618Source:istockphoto.com,shutterstock.com12(1)1(2)(C)(B)(A)(5)(4)(3)3421CBA54325453421CBA5321CBA5423113421CBA54325453421CBA5321CBA54231(2)(1)(3)(4)(5)(A)(B)(C)12长期中期短期完整周期组合在一起分形设计艾略特波浪理论拉尔夫?纳尔逊?艾略特价格波动呈现型态规律五浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的主要方向三浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的修正方向每个时间架构或者分形都会重复反映了大规模人群行为的规律比率分析/自然之数学（phi比率、黄金比率、1.618、列昂纳多·斐波纳契）命名艾略特在图表上做了标记，区分不同趋势或分形的层级特大超级循环浪长达数个世纪循环浪跨度为数年基本浪跨度为数个月次微浪只有几小时或几天波浪在形式上是自相似的……但是在时间或者深度（振幅）上他们不一定是自相似的12C535A31E4A21BDCB5432(1)4(5)(3)(4)(2)更接近真实情况心理周期从“弱手”到“强手”集中从“强手”到“弱手”分散狂热、欣喜、自满绝望，恐惧绝望，恐惧45321ABC松一口气，抱有希望，否认，振幅窄惊吓，否认，“谷底买入”心态否认，误以为熊市尚未结束泡沫，投机，振幅窄，“基本面”佳/利好消息连连最强劲的波动，振幅扩张，“基本面”/消息好转“基本面”/负面消息惊愕，不耐烦大幅强劲跌势，“基本面”/消息转为消极3参考:Frost&Prechter“ElliottWavePrinciple”,1978规则和指引通过实证观察，艾略特得出结论：波浪的形成是遵循各种规则和指引的。这些规则的存在让波浪理论比其他市场分析形式更为客观。这些规则必须得到尊重，而指引则能帮助我们辨别趋势。第2浪的回撤总是小于第1浪幅度的100%。第3浪在5浪结构中决不会是最短的。第4浪底部不会低于第1浪顶点。变更：第4浪的修正浪型态往往与第2浪不同。当第3浪延伸时，第1浪与第5浪幅度的比率往往为1或为斐波纳契比率。艾略特波浪理论三大规律：艾略特波浪理论三大指南：第4浪底部通常与次一级的第4浪水平相当。1122正确错误1234512345错误正确12341234错误正确1234512345123451234(1)(2)(3)(4)100%100%100%161.8%1234552ndwavesofamotivewavecanbeverydeepbuttheycannotmovebeyondthestartofwave1.3rdwavesareusuallythemostpowerful.Theycanbeshorterthan1or5buttheymustneverbetheshortestof1,3and5.Theendofthe4thwavemustneveroverlaptheendofwave1.Notethatifwave4isaflatoratrianglethefirstcorrectivewavescouldoverlapwave1solongastheendingwavedoesnot.ZigZagthenTriangleFlatthenZigZag2ndwavestendtobezigzagsand4thwavestendtobetrianglesorflats.Whenwave3isextended,wave5willtendtoendwhenitequalsthesizeofwave1oraratiosuchas1.618timesthesizeofwave1.A4thwavewilltendtofinishinthepricezoneofwave4ofthejustendedwave3.延伸延伸（九浪）终结楔形引导楔形扩张楔形衰竭的第5浪推动浪(1)(9)5(5)(4)(3)(2)321(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(2)(3)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)54321(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)(5)(4)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)(3)(2)(1)554321543214321Extensionsoccurwhenoneofthemotivewavesisprolongedandsubdividesintoamplifiedwaves.Frequentlyoccurringinthewave3position,normallyonlyonewavewithinamotivewavewillbeextended.Quiterarelyanextensionwilloccurwhereeachsubdividedwaveisofroughlyequalamplitude.Thisresultsintheentiremotivewavelookinglikeaninewavemove.Alsoknownasarisingorfallingwedge,theendingdiagonalisa5thwavethatcansubdivideintofiveoverlappingwavesof3waveseach(zigzags).Itisasignofanexhaustedtrend.Theleadingdiagonalcanalsosubdivideintofiveoverlappingwavesofthenormal5motive3correctivewaves.Divergencebetweenpriceandoscillatorsarenormalcharacteristicsofdiagonals.AddedtoEllliott’soriginalworkafterobservationsbyFrost&Prechter,adiagonalcanalsooccurinthewave1positionandsubdividesintofivewavesofthreemoves.A5thwavethatsubdividesintofiveswavesofthree.Theexpandingnatureofthepriceactionpointstoincreasingvolatilitythatcansignaltheendofatrend.Sometimesthetrendissoexhaustedbythetimethe5thwavecomesthatthewavedoesnotevenmovepastthewave3toporbottom.Itisasignofaverytiredmarkettrend.推动浪是周期的主要趋势，这些浪通常走势强劲，比较直观，容易识别。第3浪往往运动幅度增加，表明人们参与市场的积极性强烈。如下例子展现的是牛市推动浪，熊市的推动浪恰好相反。引导楔形(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)432154修正浪锯齿型(5-3-5)平台型（一般）(3-3-5)平台型（延伸）(3-3-5)三角型（对称）三角型（反对称）三角型（上升）三角型（下降）三角型(3-3-3-3-3)1(A)2354(C)(B)CBA(C)54321(A)CBA(B)CBA54321(B)CBA(A)CBA45321(B)(C)CBA(A)CBACBA(C)CBA(E)CBA(D)(E)(D)(C)(B)(A)(B)(A)(E)(D)(C)(B)(A)(E)(D)(C)Asharpcorrectionconsistingoftwomotivewaves(A)and(C)separatedbyacorrectivewave(B).Asidewayscorrectionwherewave(B)retracescloseto100%ofwave(A)followedbyamotivewave(C)sharpmove.AlsoknownasanIrregularFlat,thisisasidewayscorrectionwherewave(B)retracesmorethan100%ofwave(A)followedbyamotivewave(C)sharpmove.Trianglesusuallyoccurinthe4thwavepositionofamotivewaveandrepresentperiodsofequilibriumbetweenbullsandbears.TheyconsistoffivewavesA-B-C-D-Eeachsubdividingintothreewaves.Thereversesymmetricalorexpandingtriangleisrelativelyrare.Thispatternreflectsasituationwherethereisequilibriuminthepricebutthebullsareincreasinglygainingtheupperhandresultinginanupwardbreakinprice.Thispatternreflectsasituationwherethereisequilibriuminthepricebutthebearsareincreasinglygainingtheupperhandresultinginadownwardbreakinprice.艾略特观察到价格调整的几种形式。其中两种形式是锯齿型和平台型，分别由三个波浪构成。最后的C浪是推动浪，势头强劲，主要是因为市场参与者群体恐慌心理，集体逃出市场。这个过程清除了市场上的“弱手”，市场走势也得以持续。第三种形式是三角型态，包含五个波浪运动。复杂型态的修正浪双重三浪三重三浪双重三浪(Flat,AnyThree,Triangle)三重三浪(ZigZag,AnyThree,Flat,AnyThree,Flat)例子CCBA(Y)(X)(W)BCCBA(Z)(X)(Y)(X)(W)BACBAA(Z)(W)(Y)(X)(W)(X)(Y)(X)ECBACBADCBABCACBACBACABACB有时候修正浪会分解为一系列低分形的修正浪，看起来更加复杂混乱，让很多刚刚接触波浪理论的新手开始变得困惑不已，甚至持怀疑态度。不过，这些复杂的修正浪刚开始确实非常难以识别。这些“双重三浪”和“三重三浪”是在市场低迷时期区分横向、不定向、交易区间价格行为的手段。推动浪的浪4期间人们往往深感挫败，这个时期我们更有可能找到复杂型态的修正浪。DoublethreesconsistoftwoA-B-CcorrectionslabelledWandYseparatedbyawavelabelledasXwhichisalsoathreewavecorrection.TriplethreesconsistofthreeA-B-CcorrectionslabelledW,YandZseparatedbytwowaveslabelledasXwhicharealsothreewavecorrections.Inthisexample,thefirstA-B-Ccorrectivewaveisanexpandedflat(3-3-5).Thatwholecorrectionisthenlabelledas(W).Wave(X)canthenbeanythreewavecorrection(zigzagorflat).Finallywave(Y)inthisexampleisatriangle(3-3-3-3-3)whichthencompletesthedoublethreecorrection.Whencanwebesurethatacomplexcorrectionisunfolding?Atthewave(W)lowitispossiblethattheentirecorrectioniscompletedinanexpandedflatbutwhenwave(X)unfoldsinthreewavesandthendeclinesbelowtheBof(X)lowtheanalystcanbeveryconfidentthatadouble(ortriple)threeisthepreferredoutcome.Inthisexample,thefirstA-B-Ccorrectivewaveisazigzag(5-3-5).Thatcorrectionisthenlabelledas(W).Wave(X)canthenbeanythreewavecorrection(zigzagorflat).Wave(Y)inthisexampleisaregularflatwhichthencompletesadoublethreecorrection.Thereisthenanotherthreewavecorrectionwhich,whentheBwavehighinthisexampleissurpassed,canbelabelledasanotherwave(X).FinallythereisanexpandedflatA-B-Ctocompletethetriplethreecomplexcorrection.艾略特波浪趋势通道1324123455ABC把浪1和浪3的顶部连接起来，然后以浪2的底部为起点划一根与之平行的直线，将得出浪4的终点把浪2和浪4底部相连接，以浪3（或浪1）顶部为起点划一根平行线，将得出浪5的终点把浪A与浪B的顶部相连接，然后以浪A的底部为起点划一根与之平行的直线，交点将是浪C的终点5恒生指数中的艾略特趋势通道ChartSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata斐波纳契比率1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144Fibonaccinumber/previous(e.g:144/89)=1.618Inverse(1/1.618)=0.618Fibonaccinumber/twoprevious(eg:144/55)=2.618Inverse(1/2.618)=0.3821–0.618=0.3820.6182=0.3820.618+0.382=11/2=0.5(midwaybetween0.618and0.382)Fibonaccinumber/threeprevious(e.g:144/34)=4.235Inverse(1/4.235)=0.2361–0.236=0.764√0.618=0.7862.6182.3822.23621.7861.7641.6181.501.3821.23610.7860.7640.6180.500.3820.236Source:istockphoto.com斐波纳契比率浪2通常回撤浪1的76.4%或78.6%浪4通常回撤浪3的38.2%当浪3延伸时，浪5往往与浪1等长当浪5延伸时，其长度往往是浪1起点至浪3终点总长的1.618倍ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata延伸与回撤ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata多种浪数统计方式任何时候都同时存在两种或以上有效的浪数统计方式分析师的任务是找到可能性最大的那种波浪结束之前都无法100%确定该波浪属于何种波浪但所有分析都是事后发生的也能让我们得出各种不同的结论分析是一种技巧实战交易又是另一种技巧ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata艾略特波浪的真实市场例子ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,UpdataChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata艾略特波浪的真实市场例子ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata艾略特波浪的真实市场例子ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata艾略特波浪的真实市场例子上海证券综合指数体现的艾略特波浪ChartsSource:HSBC,Bloomberg,Updata结论艾略特波浪理论描述的是分形市场的演变波浪在形式上是自相似的（但在时间或深度上却并非如此）艾略特趋势通道以及斐波纳契延伸（和回撤）：独特且强大多种浪数统计提供了分析上的优势艾略特并不是一个交易“系统”汇丰银行的技术分析DayTradersSupport&ResistanceLevels(Daily)ShortCycleReport(TwiceperWeek)WavePrincipleLetter(Weekly)Trend-WaveTradingSignals(Ad-hoctradeideas/portfolio)…comingsoon….LongtermWaveanalysis(Semi-Annual)www.hsbcnet.hsbc/research中文翻译由河源外汇论坛友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。ABCGlobalResearchSheet3
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Disclosureappendix
AnalystCertification
Thefollowinganalyst(s),economist(s),and/orstrategist(s)whois(are)primarilyresponsibleforthisreport,certifies(y)thattheopinion(s)onthesubjectsecurity(ies)orissuer(s)and/oranyotherviewsorforecastsexpressedhereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthatnopartoftheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthisresearchreport:MurrayGunn
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