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Creative destruction 创造性毁灭 A cost crisis, changing labour markets and new technology will turn an old institution on its head 成本危机、变化中的劳动力市场和新技术将彻底改变一种古老的制度 Jun 28th 2014 | From the print edition  HIGHER education is one of the great successes of the welfare state. What was once the privilege of a few has become a middle-class entitlement, thanks mainly to government support. Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer. In the emerging world universities are booming: China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years. Yet the business has changed little since Aristotle taught at the Athenian Lyceum: young students still gather at an appointed time and place to listen to the wisdom of scholars. 福利国家有着众多的巨大成就，高等教育就是其中之一。得益于政府的支持，一度曾是少数人特权的高等教育已成为中产阶层的一项权利。今年夏天，美国约有350万学生，欧洲约有500万学生将从大学毕业。在新兴世界中，高等教育正在蓬勃发展：中国已在20年的时间中增加了将近3000万个教室。然而，如今的这项产业同亚里士多德在雅典学园中教书的时代相比，并没有多大的变化：年轻的学生仍是聚集在指定的时间和地点，来聆听学者的智慧。 Now a revolution has begun (see article), thanks to three forces: rising costs, changing demand and disruptive technology. The result will be the reinvention of the university. 如今，在三种力量——日益增长的成本，不断变化的要求和颠覆性的技术——的作用下，一场革命已经开始，其结果将是大学的彻底改变。 Off campus, online 撤离校园，走向网络 Higher education suffers from Baumol's disease—the tendency of costs to soar in labour-intensive sectors with stagnant productivity. Whereas the prices of cars, computers and much else have fallen dramatically, universities, protected by public-sector funding and the premium employers place on degrees, have been able to charge ever more for the same service. For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points more than inflation every year. 高等教育得的是鲍莫尔成本病。它指的是这样一种趋势：在生产力停滞不前的劳动密集部门，成本往往会趋向于大幅上涨。就在汽车、计算机以及其他商品的价格大幅下降之时，因为有公共部门资助的保护，加之雇主对于学位的重视，大学一直能够对同样的服务收取更高的费用。在过去的20年中，在美国上大学的成本一直在上涨，每年的上涨幅度比通胀高出1.6个百分点。 For most students university remains a great deal; by one count the boost to lifetime income from obtaining a college degree, in net-present-value terms, is as much as $590,000 (see article). But for an increasing number of students who have gone deep into debt—especially the 47% in America and 28% in Britain who do not complete their course—it is plainly not value for money. And the state's willingness to pick up the slack is declining. In America government funding per student fell by 27% between 2007 and 2012, while average tuition fees, adjusted for inflation, rose by 20%. In Britain tuition fees, close to zero two decades ago, can reach ￡9,000 ($15,000 a year). 对于大多数学生来说，大学仍旧是一笔“大买卖”。据统计，以净现值计算，获得大学学位之于终生收入的提高相当于590000美元。但是，对于那些越来越多的已经背上了沉重债务的学生来说，尤其是对占美国学生总数47％和占英国学生总数28%的没有完成课程的学生来说，大学学位根本不值这么多。同时，政府提供资助的意愿也在下降。在美国，政府对每个学生的资助，在2007年-2012年间减少了27%，而同期平均学费，按照通胀调整后，却上涨了20%。在英国，20年前几乎为零的学费如今能够达到9000英镑（合15000美元一年）。 The second driver of change is the labour market. In the standard model of higher education, people go to university in their 20s: a degree is an entry ticket to the professional classes. But automation is beginning to have the same effect on white-collar jobs as it has on blue-collar ones. According to a study from Oxford University, 47% of occupations are at risk of being automated in the next few decades. As innovation wipes out some jobs and changes others, people will need to top up their human capital throughout their lives. 变化的第二种推动力是劳动力市场。在标准的高等教育模式中，人们都是在20岁左右上大学。因为，学位是进入职业阶层入场券。但是，自动化正在开始给白领工作带来它曾给蓝领工作所带来的相同的影响。据牛津大学研究，在未来的几十年内，47%的工作会面临被自动化的风险。创新能消除某些工作，也能改变某些工作，人们将有不得不在为了自己的一生中而增加人力资本。 By themselves, these two forces would be pushing change. A third—technology—ensures it. The internet, which has turned businesses from newspapers through music to book retailing upside down, will upend higher education. Now the MOOC, or “Massive Open Online Course”, is offering students the chance to listen to star lecturers and get a degree for a fraction of the cost of attending a university. 凭以上这两种力量自身就能够推动变化。第三种力量——技术——确保了这种变化。已经令媒体、音乐和图书零售这些产业发生天翻地覆变化的互联网将会颠覆高等教育。如今，大规模开放式网络课程（MOOC）正在给学生提供机会，使他们得以聆听明星教师的讲课，并且只需花费上大学费用的一小部分就可获得学位。 MOOCs started in 2008; and, as often happens with disruptive technologies, they have so far failed to live up to their promise. Largely because there is no formal system of accreditation, drop-out rates have been high. But this is changing as private investors and existing universities are drawn in. One provider, Coursera, claims over 8m registered users. Though its courses are free, it bagged its first $1m in revenues last year after introducing the option to pay a fee of between $30 and $100 to have course results certified. Another, Udacity, has teamed up with AT&T and Georgia Tech to offer an online master's degree in computing, at less than a third of the cost of the traditional version. Harvard Business School will soon offer an online “pre-MBA” for $1,500. Starbucks has offered to help pay for its staff to take online degrees with Arizona State University. MOOC始于2008年；就如经常发生在毁灭性技术身上的那种情况一样，截至目前，MOOC一直未能兑现它们的承诺。主因是没有正式的认证体系，同时中途退出的比例也一直居高不下。但是，随着私人投资者和现有的大学被吸引进来，这种情况正在改变。MOOC的一位提供商Coursera自称有超过800万的注册用户。虽然课程是免费的，但是这家提供商已经因为在去年引入了支付30美元-100美元就可以得到认证的选项而收获了第一笔100万美元的收入。另一家提供商Udacity已经联合AT&T和佐治亚理工学院，以不到传统费用三分之一价格，提供计算机硕士学位的在线课程。哈佛商学院不久会提供在线MBA预备课程，费用是1500美元。星巴克已经帮助其雇员支付参与亚利桑那州州立大学在线课程的费用。 MOOCs will disrupt different universities in different ways. Not all will suffer. Oxford and Harvard could benefit. Ambitious people will always want to go to the best universities to meet each other, and the digital economy tends to favour a few large operators. The big names will be able to sell their MOOCs around the world. But mediocre universities may suffer the fate of many newspapers. Were the market for higher education to perform in future as that for newspapers has done over the past decade or two, universities’ revenues would fall by more than half, employment in the industry would drop by nearly 30% and more than 700 institutions would shut their doors. The rest would need to reinvent themselves to survive. MOOC会以不同的方式摧毁不同的大学。但是，不是所有的大学都会遭遇这种命运。哈佛和牛津能够从中获益。有野心的人总是想要上最好的大学，以便能够互相结识。同时，数字经济也往往是青睐少数的大型运作者。名校能够在全世界范围内卖出他们的MOOC。但是，普通的大学可能会遭遇许多报纸已经遭遇了的命运。如果高等教育市场在未来上演报纸在过去的一二十年间已经上演过的那一幕的话，大学的收入会减少一半以上，该产业的就业率会降低差不多30%，700多所大学可能会关门倒闭。其余的将会为了生存而彻底改变自己。 A new term 新学期 Like all revolutions, the one taking place in higher education will have victims. Many towns and cities rely on universities. In some ways MOOCs will reinforce inequality both among students (the talented will be much more comfortable than the weaker outside the structured university environment) and among teachers (superstar lecturers will earn a fortune, to the fury of their less charismatic colleagues). 同所有的革命一样，发生在高等教育领域的这场革命也会有受害者。许多城镇都依赖于大学。从某种程度上来讲，MOOC会同时强化存在于学生（在传统大学环境之外，天分高的学生的适应能力高于弱者）和教师（明星教师会有大笔的收入，会招致不那么有魅力的同事的不满）中的不平等。 Politicians will inevitably come under pressure to halt this revolution. They should remember that state spending should benefit society as a whole, not protect tenured professors from competition. The reinvention of universities will benefit many more people than it hurts. Students in the rich world will have access to higher education at lower cost and greater convenience. MOOCs' flexibility appeals to older people who need retraining: edX, another provider, says that the median age of its online students in America is 31. In the emerging world online courses also offer a way for countries like Brazil to leap-frog Western ones and supply higher education much more cheaply (see article). And education has now become a global market: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered Battushig Myanganbayar, a remarkably talented Mongolian teenager, through an online electronics course. 政客会不可避免地面临叫停这场革命的压力。但是，他们应当谨记：政府开支应该惠及整个社会，不应当让保障的教授免于竞争。大学革命所惠及的人将会远远超过它所伤害的人。富裕国家的学生将会以更低的费用和更大的便利接受高等教育。MOOC的灵活性对需要再培训的年纪更大之人也有吸引力。另一家提供商edX称，在美国，在线学生的年龄中位数是31岁。在新兴世界中，在线课程还能为巴西这样的国家提供一种迅速超西方国家和提供更便宜的高等教育的方法。如今，教育已成为一个全球市场：麻省理工通过在线电子学课程，发现了一位非常有天分的蒙古少年巴图诗蒙·延甘巴亚。 Rather than propping up the old model, governments should make the new one work better. They can do so by backing common standards for accreditation. In Brazil, for instance, students completing courses take a government-run exam. In most Western countries it would likewise make sense to have a single, independent organisation that certifies exams. 政府不应再为老模式提供支持，而是应当让新模式运作得更好。他们可以通过支持通用认证标准的方式做到这一点。比如说，巴西的学生会在课程结束后，参加由政府组织的测试。在大多数西方国家中，最好是建立一个唯一的独立考试认证组织。 Reinventing an ancient institution will not be easy. But it does promise better education for many more people. Rarely have need and opportunity so neatly come together. 彻底改变一种古老的机构不会是一件容易的事情。但是，这确实能为更多的人带来更好的教育。机不可失。 From the print edition: Leaders 作者: barbarian 时间: 2014-6-30 16:22 the premium employers place on degrees 加之溢价雇主对于学位的重视 此句翻译有问题 此句是省略that的定语从句 the premium that employers place on degrees 意思是：雇主对于学位的重视 作者: 博爱利物浦 时间: 2014-7-1 23:23 They should remember that state spending should benefit society as a whole, not protect tenured professors from competition 后面这半句感觉你翻译的不是很顺畅 应该是 他们应当谨记：政府开支应该惠及整个社会，而不应当使得那些终身教授免于竞争。 作者: sddfax 时间: 2014-7-2 18:09 For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points more than inflation every year.这里的 more than inflation 不是形容前面的 1.6百分比 的吗？ 成本每年涨1.6个百分点比通胀率还高 作者: AnneloveABC 时间: 2014-7-2 18:30 学习了  ，下面是几个小地方而已。an online master's degree in computing 提供计算机学士学位的在线课程 硕士学位 between $30 and $100 30美元-50美元 100美元 meet each other 互相见面 结识彼此 作者: sddfax 时间: 2014-7-2 21:33 sddfax 发表于 2014-7-2 18:09 那么如果想要more than inflation 修饰１．６个百分点的话，是不是应该在more than 之前加逗号，变成For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points ,more than inflation every year.这样就可以翻译成 成本每年涨1.6个百分点比通胀率还高 ？ 作者: 花未全开月未圆 时间: 2014-7-5 23:59 翻译的不错，评论也很精彩！多谢！ 作者: tk528 时间: 2014-7-6 23:13 感谢分享，顶啊！！ 作者: xierer 时间: 2014-7-8 00:05 本帖最后由 xierer 于 2014-7-10 23:58 编辑 "edX, another provider, says that the median age of its online students in America is 31. " 原译文："另一家提供商edX称，在美国，在线学生的年龄中位数是31岁。" the median age 中位与平均都可这么表达，楼主自己看上下文权衡吧 中位数无意义 作者: Neil0470 时间: 2014-7-9 17:24 几点小意见： China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years. 中国在20年内扩招了3000万名大学生。 the tendency of costs to soar in labour-intensive sectors with stagnant productivity 劳动力密集产业成本的急剧攀升趋势与生产力停滞并存。 great deal 划算的买卖 作者: 船长秘制果酱！ 时间: 2014-7-10 08:19 楼主的翻译一直质量很高啊~几点小建议，请多指教~ 1. Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer. 今年夏天，美国将有350万学生，欧洲将有500万学生从大学毕业。 some是“约”，稍微做点修正会更好~ 2. Now a revolution has begun (see article), thanks to three forces: rising costs, changing demand and disruptive technology. 如今，在三种力量——日益增长的成本，不断变化的要求和摧毁一切的技术——的作用下，一场革命已经开始。 这里的disruptive technology是“颠覆性技术”的意思，是一个术语（就是那些外国佬随便发明的=。 =），表示会给现有技术和生产带来毁灭性的冲击的技术创新，如苹果之于诺基亚。 3. the premium employers place on degrees premium employers 指“优质雇主”，就是比较好的单位。 4. But for an increasing number of students who have gone deep into debt—especially the 47% in America and 28% in Britain who do not complete their course—it is plainly not value for money. 但是，对于那些越来越多的已经背上了沉重债务的学生来说，尤其是对47%的美国学生和没有完成课程的28%的英国学生来说，大学学位根本不值这么多。 这句也许需要调整下语序，个人认为这“47%的美国学生和28%的英国学生”都应该是“没有完成课程的”，虽然“47%”这个比率有点耸人听闻！ 5. Now the MOOC, or “Massive Open Online Course”, is offering students the chance to listen to star lecturers and get a degree for a fraction of the cost of attending a university. 如今，大规模开放式网络课程（MOOC）正在给学生提供机会，使他们得以聆听明星教师的讲课，并且只需花费上大学费用的一部分就可获得学位。 "a fraction of the cost"强调的是“花的学费只需要正常大学学费一小部分”，建议翻译出来。 作者: Neil0470 时间: 2014-7-11 10:43 Neil0470 发表于 2014-7-9 17:24 前后文是“Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer. In the emerging world universities are booming: China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years. ” 联系前后文可见，作者本意是大学生的数量，"place"不是教室等空间，而是“席位”。 其次，从逻辑上理解，20年新增3000万教室。按照每间教室里容纳30人计算，能容纳9亿人，我们应该没有那么多的学生，也用不了那么多教室。 以上仅供参考。 作者: amynana 时间: 2014-8-29 15:44 感谢楼主的翻译。认真学习了一番 
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