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2015-01-29 22:38:10 沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格是长期普通股投资方面的先驱。有鉴于此，我们把上周末(股东大会上)他们透露的真知灼见整理出来和大家分享。 1. Thou Shalt Not Envy. 不可嫉妒 Munger: “We are way better off by not adding to a culture of envy." 芒格：“不嫉妒能让我们变得更好。” At Smead Capital Management, our motto is "Only the Lonely Can Play." Sticking to your own discipline when other investors are temporarily doing better than you, is effectively avoiding envy. We don't envy the returns others make in their disciplines and hope our investors stick to the kind of long durations emphasized by Berkshire Hathaway. 在史密德资产管理公司，我们的座右铭是“只有孤独者玩得起。”当有人暂时做得比你好，坚持你自己的原则，这样能够有效地避免嫉妒。我们不嫉妒靠自己的（投资）原则，挣得收益的人，也希望我们的投资者，能够坚持伯克希尔·哈撒韦所强调的长期持有原则。 2. Thou Shall Hire Great People and Over-trust Them. 任贤能，并信任他们 Buffett: "They make mistakes, but we get more success overall." 巴菲特：“他们会犯错，但总的来说我们会更成功。” Mr. Buffett sounded like author Jim Collins who said, "get the right people on the bus." We try to look for this in our investments and attempt to do this in our own company. 巴菲特的话，听起来像作家吉姆·柯林斯说的，“把对的人拉上车。”我们在投资过程中，试着找到这种人，并在公司内尝试做到信任。 3. Thou Shall View Competition as the Enemy of Competence. 应该把竞争视为你能力的敌人。 Munger: “Don't try out for the NBA if you are 5'2" tall. To find a circle of competence, compete against idiots. The slowness of what we do causes few to compete with our model." 芒格：“如果你身高只有五尺二寸（157.480厘米），不要去尝试NBA。在你能力范围，与无知者竞争。我们行事缓慢，使得很少人能够和我们的模式竞争。” In essence, we think Buffett and Munger were saying that one should invest in S&P 500 index sectors, industries and companies where the consensus is fearful. Buffett has said that you "pay a high price for a cheery consensus" and gave a loud re-endorsement of CEO Brian Moynihan at Bank of America. The long duration confidence and "slowness" of what we do in our large bank holdings will be a source of future success, in our lonely opinion! 事实上，我们认为巴菲特和芒格是在说，人们应该投资标准普尔指数里的部门、行业和公司，因为它们拥有惊人的一致性。巴菲特曾说过，你要“付出巨大的代价，才能得到令人愉快的共识。”，这句话得到美国银行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼罕的大声赞同。对长期持股的信心，以及我们对大型银行股票的“缓慢”动作，会成为我们将来的成功之源，这是我们独特的主张！ 4. Thou Shall Value Qualitative over Quantitative. 比起定量分析，因更重视定性分析。 Buffett: "Aesop Was Right (a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush). Fisher was qualitative in analyzing stocks, Graham was quantitative and Charlie convinced me that Fisher is correct." 巴菲特：“伊索是对的（一鸟在手胜过双鸟在林）。费雪对股票进行定性分析，格雷厄姆进行定量分析，而查理让我确信费雪是对的。” Our eight criteria have a clearly qualitative bent and do not emphasize the deep value pattern of Ben Graham. We will comment more about this subject next week, related to recent statistics which show that long-term Alpha is connected to low-capex and high free-cash flow generation companies. 我们的八个准则，清晰地偏向定性分析，且并不强调本·格雷厄姆的深层价值模式。下周我们会结合最近的数据来对此进行说明。近期数据显示：低资本支出、高自由现金流公司有望长期跑赢市场。 5. Thou Shalt Remove Ignorance from Investing. 投资要去除无知 Munger: "Investing and business success is about ignorance removal." 芒格：“投资与事业的成功就是在去除无知。” We have argued for years (just ask my kids) that all the math you need to be a great investor is learned by the end of 7th grade. Don't let complexity and high math fool you in the investment vehicles you analyze. We contend that successful investing in common stocks comes in long durations and from doing something which is relatively simple, but humanly hard to execute. Charlie said that See's Candy taught Warren and him about brands and led to the purchase of Coke in 1988. In effect, it "removed some of their ignorance" associated with brands. 我们主张了很多年（这点可以问我的孩子们），成为一个好的投资者，只需要拥有七年级的数学知识。在你用投资工具分析时，不要被复杂的高等数学骗到。我们主张，普通股票的成功投资，来自于长期持有，这相对简单，但并不容易做到。查理说，喜诗糖果让沃伦和他学会品牌的重要性，并使得他们在1988年买下可口可乐。事实上，这就是在品牌方面“去除他们的无知”。 |
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