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TECHNICALCHARTPATTERNSCHARACTERISTICS
典型技术形态?ObtainedfromthebookbyThomasN.Bulkowski,Encyclopediaof?ChartPatterns
摘自ThomasN.Bulkowski,形态百科全书
Note!MosttechnicalAnalysischartpatternstypicallyoccurslowlyovera3monthsto4monthstimespan.Therefore,youshouldonly?seriouslyuseaweeklychartprofilesettingandatleast?one-yearsworthofweeklytimeplots..
注意：大部分技术形态由3-4月的时间跨度慢慢形成，因此您必须在至少一年以上的周图图表上应用。
TOP10BULLISH?TECHNICALCHARTFORMATIONS?WITHHIGHESTMOSTLIKELYRISE!
前10大看涨技术形态及最大可能涨幅 AVG.?FAILURES%
平均失败几率 AVG.RISE%?
平均涨幅 LIKELYRISE%
很可能的涨幅 ??1.RoundingTops，圆弧顶 6% 41% 30% ??2.BroadeningFormations,RightAngled???????&Descending扩散及下降直角三角形 19% 27% 25% ??3.Scallops,Ascending上升扇形 25% 33% 25% ??4.Head-and-ShouldersBottoms,??????Complex复合头肩底 6% 37% 25% ??5.HornBottoms喇叭底 11% 37% 25% ??6.Head-and-ShouldersBottoms头肩底 5% 38% 25% ??7.DoubleBottoms双底 3% 40% 25% ??8.Wedges,Falling下降契形 2% 43% 25% ??9.RectangleTop,UpBreakout长方形顶，向上突破 2% 52% 25% ?10.Flags,HighandTight旗型 17% 63% 25% TOP10BEARISHTECHNICALCHARTFORMATIONSWITHHIGHESTMOSTLIKELYDECLINE!
前10大看跌技术形态，最大及最可能的跌幅 AVG.?FAILURES%
平均失败几率 AVG.DECLINE%
平均跌幅 LIKELYDECLINE%
最可能的跌幅 ??1.Pennant,trenddown，下降三角形 34% 17% 25% ???2.Scallops,Descending下降扇形 3% 24% 20% ???3.Head-and-Shoulders,?复合头肩顶??????Tops,Complex 8% 27% 20% ???4.DiamondTops钻石顶 25% 21% 20% 5.BroadeningWedges,Descending,?DownBreakout
扩散契形，下降突破 41% 24% 20% ???6.RectangleTops,DownBreakout长方形下突破 0% 20% 20% ???7.BroadeningBottoms,?扩散底，向下突破???????DownBreakout 6% 27% 17.5% ???8.Bump-and-RunReversalTops碰撞反转顶 19% 24% 17.5% ???9.BroadeningTops,Downbreakout扩散顶，向下突破 4% 23% 15% 10.Triangles,Descending下降三角形 4% 19% 15%
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
形态特征
#1Bullish!#1看涨
Oneofthemostbullishanddependablechartpatternwithonlya6%failurerateandanaveragepositiveriseof41%.Theaveragerisewas30%.Thesepatternchartformationsareoftenlongenoughtoappearontheweeklychartsanddailycharts.
仅6%失败的最可靠的看涨形态，平均正涨幅41%，平均上涨涨幅30%，这种形态常常需要够长的时间，在周线图和日线图上出现。
PatternShape-Roundedhalf-moonshape.Thestockpricetrendcurvesbeginningfromthelowerleftpricepointupwardtothetopofthedomethenthepricetrendroundsoverandmovesdownagaintoalowerpricesupportarea.
形态描述：
半月形，价格曲线从左边低点向上到半月形顶部，然后又向下运行到开始的低点的支撑区域
TradingTactics-Theaveragetradeforentryshouldoccurontherightsideofthedomewhenthepriceclosesabovethedomeoratcrestforthemoreaggressiveinvestors.
交易策略：
一般交易者在圆弧的右侧进场，激进的交易者在价格到达圆弧顶部上面一点的位置进场
WINs?-Thispatternhasanupwardbiasandisidealforwritingcoveredcallsand/orleapsspreads.Itispossibletotimeyourwritesandgethigherpremiumsforyourwrites.Leggingintoaspreadwouldbemoreaggressive.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#2Bullish!Contrarytopopularbelief,morechartpattersnwithright-angleddescendingbroadeningformationsbreakoutupwardsthandownwards.
#2看涨形态
相对于普遍的看法，直角下降三角向上突破的可能超过向下突破的可能
PatternShape-Lookslikeamegaphone,tilteddownward,withthetoptheformationhorizontal&boundonthebottombyadownwardbiasedslopingtrendline.
形态描述：
看起来像个喇叭，顶部由水平趋势线，底部由倾斜的趋构成，价格打到底部反弹冲破顶部趋势线
TradingTactics-Theupperpricetagsmustformahorizontalline.Thereisnoconsistentvolumepatternforthisformation.Note!Pricescanbreakoutineitherdirection,usuallywithariseinvolumethatsoontapersoff.
交易战术：
WINs?-ThispatternworksgreatwithdeterminingthestrikepricesforCCsandLEAPsspreads.Thebackandforthmovementsmaketheoptionpremiumshigher.Watchoutforthethirdandfourthupmovetogappingprices!
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#3Bullish!Ascendingscallopsappearwhenthestockpricesaremovinghigherover3,6,ormoremonths.?
#3看涨形态
上升扇形一般出现价格上涨3，6或更长的时间形成
PatternShape-AscendingformationshaveaJshapeandhavetwopricepeakswitharoundedpricerecessioninbetween.
TradingTactics-AscendingscallopsoftenshowaU-shapedvolumetrendthatgetsheavierovertime.YoucanaveragedownorlegintoaCCorLEAPsspreads. WINs?-WatchoutforgapspassyourCCsstrikeprices.LEAPsspreadersshouldgoshortonemonthouttoavoidbeingcalledoutorhavingarun-a-wayposition.?
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#4Bullish!Thisformationhadonlya6%failureratewhichisoutstanding.Whenthenecklineslopesdownwardatindicated,thestockperformesbetter.
PatternShape-AH&Sbottomwithmultipleshoulders,mutipleheads,or(rarely)both.Theheadislowerthantheshouldersbutnotverymuch.
TradingTactics-Usuallyhighervolumeontheleftsideofshouldersthanthanthecorrespondingshouldersontherightside.Greatstocktoplayupanddownwithcallsandputsorshorting.
WINs?-Greatstocktogenerateconsiderablepremiumswithupthedowncyclesbeforeallowingthestocktoappreciateinvalueandcashout.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#5Bullish!GreatCCingpatternforstockpricerisewhenthehornlengthsareatleasttwiceaslongthanmostspikesovertheprioryear.?
PatternShape-Usetheweeklyprofiletolocatetwodownwardspikesinthehornsseparatedbyaweekworthoftime.
TradingTactics-Theleftspikeshowshigherthanaveragevolumeandthusmorevolatility.?Somehornsappearneartheendofuptrends,sowatchforthetrendtochange!
WINs?-Hornswillusuallynotmarktheendofthedowntrends,buttheywillbeclose.Pricesmightcontinuetodriftdownfor$1orsothenheadupward.Letthetrendbeyourfriend!
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#6Bullish!H&SBottomsarequiteeasytospotandtheycanbeveryprofitable.H&Sbottomsmeetsitspricetargets83%ofthetime.
PatternShape-Athree-humpformationwiththecenterhumpbelowtheothertwo.Thethreehumpsandtwominorrisesshouldbewelldefined.
TradingTactics-Thelineslantedtotherightistheneckline.Thepriceusuallyadvancesabovethenecklineandstagesanupsidebreakout.?
WINs?-Volumeisusuallyhighestontheleftshoulderorheadanddimishesontherightshoulder.Upwaredbreakoutsoccurusuallywithhighvolume.Alowvolumebreakoutisnotanindictorofanimpendingfailure.?
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#7Bullish!Adoublebottomoccursafteradownwardpricetrend.Highvolumecommonlyoccursonthefirstbottom.
PatternShape-ShapedlikeabiguppercaseWthatusuallytakesapproxiately4monthsworthoftimetocompletetheformationpattern.
TradingTactics-2/3softhedoublebottomthrowbacktothebreakoutprice.Therefore,considerwaitingforthethrowbackandreversal?forpricestoheadupwardagain.
WINs?-Bottomshumpsthatareclosertogetherusuallyshowlargerpricegainsandbreakouts.Itissuggestedthatyouaveragedownorlegintopositionswithsideshows.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#8Bullish!Thefailurerateforfallingwedgesisverylowat10%whiletheaverageriseof43%forthisindicatorsuggestaprofitableformationtotrade.Thehighestpriceafterthebreakoutisapprox.thebeginningofthetrendlines.
PatternShape-Twodrawndownward-slopingtotherightsidetrendlinesthateventuallymustintersect.Usethetrendlinefeaturetodrawthelines.Mostformationshaveatleastfivetouches.3ononesideand2ontheotherside.
TradingTactics-Mostfallingwedgeshasamininumdurationof3-wksormore.Anythinglessismostlikelyapennant.Formationsrarelyexceed4monthslong.?
WINs?-Bereadytocoverwhenthefallingwedgescometoanintersect.ItmaybepossibletobuyPUTsassideshowsforthemoreaggressiveinvestors.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#9Bullish!-Thistrickypaternfailsonly2%ofthetime!Theaverageriseisanastounding52%withalikelygainbetween20%to30%forlatecomers.
PatternShape-Stockprices?oscillatesbetweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingupward.Lookslikebridgeironsupportstructures.
TradingTactics-Thepricewillbounceupanddownwithinapricerange.ThispatterndoestaketimetoformandyoucanmilkdeepITMCCsorLEAPsspreadsdependingonyourinvestingstyle.
WINs?-FollowthestandardapproachofwrittingCCsatthepeaksandallowingthepricetodropbeforeyoucovercheap.Thiswillprotectyourdownsideandfreeyouupwhenthepricebeginstomoveupwardagain.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#10Bullish!Thepricegapsupwardafteraconsolidation?regionofseveraldaystoseveralweekslong.Thisoccursafterthestockdoublesinprice.
PatternShape-Duringaflagphase,pricescanslowlydriftdownwardasmuchas-20%.Pricesmovesidewaysfor3to5weeks.
TradingTactics-Buyafterthebreakoutisthesafestcourseofaction.Waitforpricestoriseabovethehighesthighintheflag.
WINs?-Youcanbuyandholdoraveragedownyourposition.Letthetrendbeyourfriend.?
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#1Bearish!Thispattersfoolsmanyinvestors.Pricesusuallygoagainsttheprevailingtrend.Inotherwords,thepricewilleventuallyfallasthesmartmoneyexists.?
PatternShape-?Therearetwopatternswhicharerelated.Flags:priceactionboundedbytwoparalleltrendlines.Pennants:thetwotrendlinesconvergetoapoint.
TradingTactics-Theseformationsusuallyformnearthemidpointofasteep,quickpricetrend.Ifyoudonothaveastrongadvanceordeclineleadingtothechartpattern,ignoretheformation.
WINs?-Thiskindofpatternlastatotalof3-weeksmax.Volumeusuallytrendsdownwardthroughouttheformation."Volumeprecedesprice!"?
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#2Bearish!Pricespeak,curvedownwardandaround,thenformalowerpeak.Lookforprevious52-weeklowsorpreviouslowerpricesupportlevelsforclues.Thisisagoodpatterntogoshortwithonlya3%failurerateandanaveragedeclineof24%.
PatternShape-Thepricepatternlookslikealetter-Jreversed.Thereisnodiscerniblevolumetrendfordescendingscallops."Pricesfallsbyit''sownweight"isthetermusedtodescribethedownwardpricedrift.
TradingTactics-Thisisconsideredashort-termpatternupto3monthstimeorless.?
WINs?-ThisisagoodLEAPsputspatterntolegintoorwritingdeepITMCCsifyouwishtoremainlong.PUTssideshowsarealsoprofitable.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#3Bearish!Oneofthemosteasypatternstospotandoneofthemostprofitable!Takesaslongasthreemonthstoform.
PatternShape-H&Stopshavemultipleheads,shoulders,orboth.?
TradingTactics-Pull-backsaverage64%andformationswithdownwordslopingnecklinesorhigherleftshouldersperformbetter.
WINs?-Whenpricesclosesbelowtheneckline,abreakoutoccurs.Forthosecaseswithasteep,down-slopingneckline,usethelowesttroughpriceasthebreakoutpoint.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#4Bearish!Pricesusuallytrenduptotheformation.Diamondtopsneednotformatthetopofapricechart!
PatternShape-Diamondpatternformsafteradownwardpricetrend.Trendlinessurroundingtheminorhights&lowsresemblesadiamond.
TradingTactics-Shouldyoulocateadiamondpatternandlaterdiscoverthatitmaybeahead&shoulderstop,don''tworry!Bothformationsareverybearish!
WINs?-Diamondswillsometimesformafteraquickrunupinprices.Thereversalwillusuallyerasethesegainsandreturnpricestowheretheywerebeforetherun-up.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#5Bearish!Descendingbroadeningwedgesactasaconsolidationoftheprevailingtrend.Thevolumetendstoincreaseovertime.
PatternShape-Pricepatternlookslikeamegaphonetitleddownward.Bothtrendlinesslopedownwardwiththelowertrendlinehavingasteeperslope.
TradingTactics-Thisformationactsasaconsolidationofthetrend.Ifpricesaremovingdown,pricesusuallycontinuedownafteradownsidebreakout.
WINs?-Iftheformationisespeciallybroad,buyasthelowertrendlineandsellatthetop.Alternatively,sellshortatthetoptrendlineoncepricesareheadingdownandclosethepositionafteritreboundsoffthelowertrendline.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#6Bearish!Pricestrendforaslongas3monthsuptotheformationthenoscillatewithpull-backsthataver55%betweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingoutdownward.?
PatternShape-Twoparalleltrendlinesforthehighsandthelows.Lookslikebridgeironsupportstructures.
TradingTactics-TheactualThepricewillbounceupanddownwithinapricerange.ThispatterndoestaketimetoformandyoucanmilkdeepITMCCsorLEAPsspreadsdependingonyourinvestingstyle.?
WINs?-FollowthestandardapproachofwrittingCCsatthepeaksandallowingthepricetodropbeforeyoucovercheap.Thiswillprotectyourdownsideandfreeyouupwhenthepricebeginstomoveupwardagain.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#7Bearish!Thepricetrendbeginsasanegativedowntrendthatleadstoabounceformingamegaphoneappearancewithhigherhighsandlowerlowsthatwidendsovertime.Then,thebreakoutisupwardusuallyoffthemovingaverageline.
PatternShape-Lookslikeabull-hornandusuallytakeslessthanthreemonthstoform.Volumeusuallyfollowsprice;risesaspricerises,fallswhenpricesfall.
TradingTactics-Partialriseattheendoftheformationpredictsadownsidebreakout67%ofthetimeandpartialdeclinespredictsanupsidebreakout80%ofthetime.
WINs?-Oncerecognizingabroadeningformation,golongatthelowandbuyafterthestockmakesitsturnatthelow.Likewise,goshortatthehighpricesstartheadingdownatthetop.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#8Bearish!Prices?risesteadilyalongatrendline,bumpup,roundover,thendeclinesthroughthetrendlineandcontinuesdownward.
PatternShape-Ifthetrendlineisflatornearlyso,itisnotagoodbump-and-rundreversal?candidate.Thetypicaltrendlinewasa30-degreeangledline.
TradingTactics-Waitingforthebreakoutimprovesinvestmentperformance.Thecloseshouldbeabovethedown-slopingtrendlinebeforeyoubuythestock.
WINs?-Whenpricesrisestotheoldhigh,considersellingitifthethestockshowsweakness.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#9Bearish!Thepricetrendbeginsasapositiveuptrendthatleadstoapull-backformingamegaphoneappearancewithhigherhighsandlowerlowsthatwidendsovertime.Then,thebreakoutisupwardusuallyoffthemovingaverageline.
PatternShape-?Lookslikeabull-hornandusuallytakeslessthanthreemonthstoform.Volumeusuallyfollowsprice;risesaspricerises,fallswhenpricesfall.
TradingTactics-Partialriseattheendoftheformationpredictsadownsidebreakout65%ofthetimeandpartialdeclinespredictsanupsidebreakout86%ofthetime.
WINs?-Thebreakoutcanoccurineitherdirectionand,inseveralcases,pricesmovehorizontallyforseveralmonthsbeforestagingadefinitivebreakout.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#10Bearish!Pricestrenddownwardthenformlowerhighsandhigherlowsfollowingtwoslopingtrendlinesthateventuallyintersect.Thebreakoutisdownwardwitha57%averagepullback.
PatternShape-Pricestrenddownwardthenformlowerhighsandhigherlowsfollowingtwoslopingtredlinesthateventuallyintersect.Lookslikeatriangleonitsside.
TradingTactics-Triangleswithhighvolumebreakoutsshowlargerlosses.Pullbacksaremorelikelytooccurafterahighvolumebreakout.
WINs?-Unknowsaheadoftime.Youmustwaitforthebreakoutbeforeinvesting.
?TECHNICALTERMSDEFINED:?
FAILURERATE:
Percentageofformationsthatdonotworkasexpected.Thenumbersapplytoformationsoncetheystageabreakout(confirmingtheformation).
REVERSALORCONSOLIDATION:
TheletterRappearsifthemajorityofformationsactasreversalsofthepricetrendandtheletterCappearsforconsolidations.IfbothRandCappearinanentry,thenthechartpatternhasnooverridingmajorityofeithertype.
THROWBACK,?PULLBACK:
Athrowbackisanupsidebreakoutthatreturnspricetothetopoftheformationortrendlineboundary.Apullbackisadownsidebreaksidebreakoutthatreturnspricestothebottomoftheformationortrendlineboundary?
LIKELYRISE?OR?DECLINE
Computedbymeasuringtheindividualpercentageriseordeclineforeachformationandtabulatingafrequencydistributionoftheresults.Themostlikelyriseordeclineistherangewiththehighestfrequencyandusuallyexcludestherightmostcolumn.?
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