2015年3月10日標指急跌1.7%,昨日再跌0.19%,反彈乏力,大势已去。蘋果下跌1.82%,阿里巴巴下跌1.18%,表现弱势。
Michael Snyder 發表评論,認為美股已见大顶,即将狂跌,詳见附錄。
美國製造業消费品新訂單按年急跌10%,反映美國經濟早已陷入衰退,见附图。
免責聲明:以上分析,只供參考,投資買賣,必須審慎。
附图: 美國製造業消费品新訂單按年急跌10%,反映美國經濟早已陷入衰退。
附錄: 7 Signs
That A Stock Market Peak Is Happening Right
Now
http://www./news/2015-03-11/7-signs-stock-market-peak-happening-right-now
Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse
blog,
Is
this the end of the last great run for the U.S. stock
market? Are we witnessing classic “peaking
behavior” that is similar to what occurred just before other major
stock market crashes? Throughout 2014 and for the
early stages of 2015, stocks have been on quite a
tear. Even though the overall U.S.
economy continues to be deeply
troubled,
we have seen the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set record
after record. But no bull market lasts forever –
particularly one that has no relation to economic reality
whatsoever.
This false bubble of
financial prosperity has been enjoyable, and even I wish that it
could last much longer. But there comes a time when we all must face reality, and
the cold, hard facts are telling us that this party is about to
end. The following are 7 signs that a
stock market peak is happening right
now…
#1 Just before a stock
market crash, price/earnings ratios tend to spike, and that is
precisely what we are witnessing. The following
commentary and chart come from Lance Roberts…
The chart below shows Dr.
Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio. The problem is that
current valuations only appear cheap when compared to the peak in
2000. In order to put valuations into perspective, I have capped
P/E’s at 30x trailing earnings. The dashed orange line measures 23x
earnings which has been the level where secular bull markets have
previously ended. I have noted the peak valuations in periods that
have exceeded that 30x earnings.
At 27.85x current earning
the markets are currently at valuation levels where previous bull
markets have ended rather than continued. Furthermore, the markets
have exceeded the pre-financial crisis peak of 27.65x earnings. If
earnings continue to deteriorate, market valuations could rise
rapidly even if prices remain stagnant.
#2 The average bull market
lasts for approximately 3.8
years.
The current bull market has already lasted for six
years.
#3 The median total gain
during a bull market is 101.5 percent. For this bull market,
it has been 213 percent.
#4 Usually before a stock
market crash we see a divergence between the relative strength
index and the stock market itself. This happened
prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble, it happened prior to
the crash of 2008, and it is happening again right
now…
The first technical
warning sign that we should heed is marked by a significant
divergence between the relative strength index (RSI) and the market
itself. This is noted by a declining pattern of lower highs in the
RSI as stocks continue to make higher highs, a sign that the market
is “topping out”. In the late ‘90s this divergence persisted for
many years as the tech bubble reached epic valuation levels. In
2007 this divergence lasted over a much shorter period (6 months)
before the market finally peaked and succumbed to massive selling.
With last month’s strong rally to new records, we now have a
confirmed divergence between the long-term relative strength index
and the market’s price action.
#5 In the past, peaks in
margin debt have been very closely associated with stock market
peaks. The following chart
comes from Doug Short, and I included it in
a previous article…
#6 As I have
discussed previously, we usually witness a spike in 10 year
Treasury yields just about the time that the stock market is
peaking right before a crash.
Well, according
to Business Insider, we just saw the largest 5 week rate
rally in two decades…
Lots of guys and gals went
home this past weekend thinking about the implications of the
recent rise in the 10-year Treasury bond’s
yield.
Chris Kimble notes it was
the biggest 5-week rate rally in twenty years!
#7 A lot of momentum
indicators seem to be telling us that we are rapidly approaching a
turning point for stocks. For example, James
Stack, the editor of InvesTech Research, says that the Coppock
Guide is warning us of “an impending bear market on the not-too-distant
horizon”…
A momentum indicator
dubbed the Coppock Guide, which serves as “a barometer of the
market’s emotional state,” has also peaked, Stack says. The
indicator, which, “tracks the ebb and flow of
equity markets from one psychological extreme to another,” is also
flashing a warning flag.
The Coppock Guide’s chart
pattern is flashing a “double
top,” which suggests that
“psychological excesses are present” and that “secondary momentum
has peaked” in this bull market, according to
Stack.
“All of this is just
another reason for concern about an impending bear market on the
not-too-distant horizon,” Stack writes.
So if we are to see a
stock market crash soon, when will it happen?
Well, the truth is that
nobody knows for certain.
It could happen this week,
or it could be six months from now.
In fact, a whole lot of
people are starting to point to the second half of 2015 as a danger
zone. For example, just consider the words
of David Morgan…
“Momentum is one indicator
and the money supply. Also, when I made my forecast, there is a big
seasonality, and part of it is strict analytical detail and part of
it is being in this market for 40 years. I got a pretty good idea
of what is going on out there and the feedback I get. . . . I’m in
Europe, I’m in Asia, I’m in South America, I’m in Mexico, I’m in
Canada; and so, I get a global feel, if you will, for what people
are really thinking and really dealing with. It’s like a barometer
reading, and I feel there are more and more tensions all the time
and less and less solutions. It’s a fundamental take on how fed up
people are on a global basis. Based on that, it seems to me as I
said in the January issue of the Morgan Report, September is going to be the point where people have had
it.”
Time will tell if Morgan
was right.
But without a doubt, lots
of economic warning signs are starting to pop
up.
One that is particularly
troubling is the decline in new orders for consumer
goods. This is something
that Charles Hugh-Smith pointed out in one of his recent
articles…
The
financial news is astonishingly
rosy: record trade surpluses in China,
positive surprises in Europe, the best run of new jobs added to the
U.S. economy since the go-go 1990s, and the gift that keeps on
giving to consumers everywhere, low oil prices.
So
if everything is so fantastic, why are new orders
cratering? New
orders are a snapshot of future demand, as
opposed to current retail sales or orders that have been
delivered.
Posted below is a chart
that he included with his recent article. As you
can see, the only time things have been worse in recent decades was
during the depths of the last financial crisis…
To me,
it very much appears that time is running out for this bubble of
false prosperity that we have been living
in.
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