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A.股票的正反馈特性。B.市场利率对大盘的影响。C.流动性对大盘的影响。
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1.根据股票系统的正反馈特性，当股票下跌了两年以上时，市场情绪已经很悲观了。这时的积极因素是可以促成见底反转的。
2.当货币供应量M1连续六个月同比增长超过18%时，经济必然过热。如果这时货币紧缩，市场利率必然上升，加上货币供应增速放缓，货币流动性下降，股票大盘很可能下跌。
3.当货币供应量M1连续三个月同比增长低于10%时，经济紧缩过度，货币供应很可能放松，市场流动性增加，市场利率下降，牛市很可能启动。
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根据上述逻辑关系，2012年很可能有一个大牛市。
| 货币供应 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1//7 |
2//8 |
2//9 |
4//10 |
5//11 |
6//12 |
| 2000 |
46570.1 |
44679.00 |
45158.00 |
46319.00 |
46490.00 |
48024.00 |
|
47830.00 |
48885.00 |
50616.00 |
49952.00 |
50787.00 |
53147.00 |
| 2001 |
54406.23 |
51997.68 |
53033.36 |
53261.32 |
52542.99 |
55187.36 |
|
53502.80 |
55808.92 |
55900.00 |
56114.90 |
58000.00 |
59871.59 |
| 2002 |
60577.23 |
58703.97 |
59475.67 |
60462.04 |
61247.53 |
63144.69 |
|
63488.41 |
64869.50 |
66800.29 |
67100.77 |
67993.28 |
70882.19 |
| 2003 |
72406.05 |
69757.05 |
71439.21 |
71321.54 |
72778.15 |
75923.52 |
|
76153.04 |
77033.30 |
79164.14 |
80267.37 |
80815.22 |
84118.81 |
| 2004 |
83806.09 |
83556.62 |
85815.79 |
85603.94 |
86780.65 |
88627.45 |
|
87982.45 |
89125.50 |
90439.21 |
90782.72 |
92387.36 |
95971.01 |
| 2005 |
97079.93 |
92815.93 |
94744.19 |
94594.73 |
95803.02 |
98602.14 |
|
97674.98 |
99378.67 |
100964.95 |
101752.93 |
104127.26 |
107279.91 |
| 2006 |
107250.68 |
104357.08 |
106737.08 |
106389.11 |
109219.22 |
112342.36 |
|
112653.04 |
114845.67 |
116814.10 |
118359.96 |
121644.95 |
126028.05 |
| 2007 |
128484.06 |
126258.08 |
127881.31 |
127678.33 |
130275.80 |
135847.40 |
|
136237.43 |
140993.21 |
142591.57 |
144649.33 |
148009.82 |
152519.17 |
| 2008 |
154872.59 |
150177.88 |
150867.47 |
151694.91 |
153344.75 |
154820.15 |
|
154992.44 |
156889.92 |
155748.97 |
157194.36 |
157826.63 |
166217.13 |
| 2009 |
165214.34 |
166149.60 |
176541.13 |
178213.57 |
182025.58 |
193138.15 |
|
195889.27 |
200394.83 |
201708.14 |
207545.74 |
212493.20 |
221445.81 |
| 2010 |
229588.98 |
224286.95 |
229397.93 |
233909.76 |
236497.88 |
240580.00 |
|
240664.07 |
244340.64 |
243821.90 |
253313.17 |
259420.32 |
266621.54 |
| 2011 |
261765.01 |
259200.50 |
266255.48 |
266766.91 |
269289.63 |
274662.57 |
|
270545.65 |
273393.77 |
267193.16 |
276552.67 |
281416.37 |
289800.00 |
2012
269900.00 270300.00
278000.00 275000.00
278600.00 287500.00
-------------------年同比增长。
|
1//7 |
2//8 |
3//9 |
4//10 |
5//11 |
6//12 |
| 2000* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2001* |
16.8% |
16.4% |
17.4% |
15.0% |
13.0% |
14.9% |
|
11.9% |
14.2% |
10.4% |
12.3% |
14.2% |
12.7% |
| 2002* |
11.3% |
12.9% |
12.1% |
13.5% |
16.6% |
14.4% |
|
18.7% |
16.2% |
19.5% |
19.6% |
17.2% |
18.4% |
| 2003* |
19.5% |
18.8% |
20.1% |
18.0% |
18.8% |
20.2% |
|
19.9% |
18.8% |
18.5% |
19.6% |
18.9% |
18.7% |
| 2004* |
15.7% |
19.8% |
20.1% |
20.0% |
19.2% |
16.7% |
|
15.5% |
15.7% |
14.2% |
13.1% |
14.3% |
14.1% |
| 2005* |
15.8% |
11.1% |
10.4% |
10.5% |
10.4% |
11.3% |
|
11.0% |
11.5% |
11.6% |
12.1% |
12.7% |
11.8% |
| 2006* |
10.5% |
12.4% |
12.7% |
12.5% |
14.0% |
13.9% |
|
15.3% |
15.6% |
15.7% |
16.3% |
16.8% |
17.5% |
| 2007* |
19.8% |
21.0% |
19.8% |
20.0% |
19.3% |
20.9% |
|
20.9% |
22.8% |
22.1% |
22.2% |
21.7% |
21.0% |
| 2008* |
20.5% |
18.9% |
18.0% |
18.8% |
17.7% |
14.0% |
|
13.8% |
11.3% |
9.2% |
8.7% |
6.6% |
9.0% |
| 2009* |
6.7% |
10.6% |
17.0% |
17.5% |
18.7% |
24.8% |
|
26.4% |
27.7% |
29.5% |
32.0% |
34.6% |
33.2% |
| 2010* |
39.0% |
35.0% |
29.9% |
31.3% |
29.9% |
24.6% |
|
22.9% |
21.9% |
20.9% |
22.1% |
22.1% |
20.4% |
| 2011* |
14.0% |
15.6% |
16.1% |
14.0% |
13.9% |
14.2% |
|
12.4% |
11.9% |
9.6% |
9.2% |
8.5% |
8.7% |
2012 3.1% 4.3%
4.4% 3.1%
3.5%
4.7%
-----------------------------半年比增长率
| 2000.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.7% |
9.4% |
12.1% |
7.8% |
9.2% |
10.7% |
| 2001 |
13.7% |
6.4% |
4.8% |
6.6% |
3.5% |
3.8% |
|
-1.7% |
7.3% |
5.4% |
5.4% |
10.4% |
8.5% |
| 2002 |
13.2% |
5.2% |
6.4% |
7.7% |
5.6% |
5.5% |
|
4.8% |
10.5% |
12.3% |
11.0% |
11.0% |
12.3% |
| 2003 |
14.0% |
7.5% |
6.9% |
6.3% |
7.0% |
7.1% |
|
5.2% |
10.4% |
10.8% |
12.5% |
11.0% |
10.8% |
| 2004 |
10.0% |
8.5% |
8.4% |
6.6% |
7.4% |
5.4% |
|
5.0% |
6.7% |
5.4% |
6.0% |
6.5% |
8.3% |
| 2005 |
10.3% |
4.1% |
4.8% |
4.2% |
3.7% |
2.7% |
|
0.6% |
7.1% |
6.6% |
7.6% |
8.7% |
8.8% |
| 2006 |
9.8% |
5.0% |
5.7% |
4.6% |
4.9% |
4.7% |
|
5.0% |
10.1% |
9.4% |
11.3% |
11.4% |
12.2% |
| 2007 |
14.1% |
9.9% |
9.5% |
7.9% |
7.1% |
7.8% |
|
6.0% |
11.7% |
11.5% |
13.3% |
13.6% |
12.3% |
| 2008 |
13.7% |
6.5% |
5.8% |
4.9% |
3.6% |
1.5% |
|
0.1% |
4.5% |
3.2% |
3.6% |
2.9% |
7.4% |
| 2009 |
6.6% |
5.9% |
13.3% |
13.4% |
15.3% |
16.2% |
|
18.6% |
20.6% |
14.3% |
16.5% |
16.7% |
14.7% |
| 2010 |
17.2% |
11.9% |
13.7% |
12.7% |
11.3% |
8.6% |
|
4.8% |
8.9% |
6.3% |
8.3% |
9.7% |
10.8% |
| 2011 |
8.8% |
6.1% |
9.2% |
5.3% |
3.8% |
3.0% |
|
3.4% |
5.5% |
0.4% |
3.7% |
4.5% |
4.1% |
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