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HOW fast are incomes growing? The answer swings elections; Ronald Reagan, on his way to victory in 1980, told voters to ask themselves if they were better off than they were four years earlier. It also shifts the political spectrum. Paltry wage growth since the financial crisis has fed populism in both parties. According to official statistics, real (ie, inflation-adjusted) median household income in 2014 was only 0.7% higher than in 1989, when the Gipper left office. It is a common refrain that since then rising inequality, trade and outsourcing have left middle America languishing behind. But several trends make household-income statistics look gloomier than they really are. 收入增长的速度有多快？这个问题对选举的影响很大。1980年，里根在即将赢得大选时，曾问选民们想想自己是否比四年前生活得更好。这个问题也改变了政治图谱。自从金融危机以来，微薄的工资增长让两党内的民粹主义都得以壮大。据官方统计数据，2014年美国家庭收入中位数（经通胀调整）仅比1989年里根下台时高出0.7%。大家普遍认为，在那之后不断增长的贫富差距、贸易和外包行为使得美国中产阶级逐渐衰弱。不过，有些趋势会使家庭收入的统计看起来比实际情况更令人沮丧。 Take household size. Since 1989, households have become, on average, 3.4% smaller, as fertility has fallen and living alone has become more common. In 1989 there were 2.63 Americans per household; today there are 2.54. Smaller households mean fewer earners (and fewer mouths to feed) in each, lowering median incomes without necessarily making anyone worse off. At the same time, higher earners are increasingly likely to marry one another. This pushes up inequality between households, but not between individuals. Since 1989, the real earnings of the median worker—a measure affected by neither of these trends—have grown by fully 13%. 按家庭规模来算，1989年以来，生育率的下降让独居也变得越来越普遍，美国的家庭规模平均缩小了3.4%。在1989年，美国每个家庭的平均人口是2.63，而现在是2.54。家庭人口变少意味着每个家庭里有有收入的成员减少（同时每个家庭需供养的人口也更少），中位收入减少，但不一定会使人们生活得更糟。与此同时，收入更高者之间相互联姻。虽然这推动了家庭之间的贫富差距，却没有扩大个体之间的贫富差距。1989年之后，中位劳动者的实际收入——一种不受任何趋势影响的计算办法——足足上升了13%。 All that growth, however, came before 2000, lending credibility to Hillary Clinton’s claim that most workers have not seen a pay rise in 15 years. Small pay rises in the mid-2000s were wiped out by the financial crisis. But another trend is suppressing the recovery of incomes since the recession: ageing. Americans’ incomes usually peak in middle age, then decline as they head towards retirement. The median income of households headed by 45- to 54-year-olds in 2014 was $71,000; for households headed by 65- to 74-year-olds, it was only $45,000. 然而，这种增长只是出现在2000年之前，这让希拉里·克林顿的话更可信了——她曾宣称，大多数工人有15年没有看到薪水上涨了。在2000年代中期，金融危机将小幅加薪一扫而光。但另一个趋势则在抑制着经济衰退后的收入恢复现象：人口老龄化。美国人的收入通常在其中年时达到顶峰，然后逐渐下降，直至退休年龄。2014年，在美国中等收入的家庭中，户主是45岁到54岁的，平均收入为7.1万美元；而户主是54岁到74岁的，平均收入只有4.5万美元。 This matters because America has been greying. The oldest of the baby-boom generation began to retire in 2008. Because workers who were once cashing paycheques are now drawing pensions, this has held down average income growth. Between 2010 and 2014, real median household income grew by 0.3%. But a weighted average of the median income in each age-group, with the weights frozen to reflect the age profile of the population in 2010, is up by 1.9%. This suggests that ageing is a significant drag on the headline measure. (When the numbers are not adjusted for ageing, the weighted-average measure is up by only 0.7%, so the different construction of the two measures accounts for only some of the gap.) 之所以会这样是因为美国人口正在老龄化。婴儿潮一代里年龄最大的在 2008 年开始退休。这些曾经领工资的人现在要领取养老金，因而这是长期压制工资增长的一个原因。2010年到2014年间，中等收入家庭的收入平均只涨了0.3%。根据2010年的人口分布来制定的权重，在每个年龄段，收入的加权平均值上升了1.9%。这表明，人口老龄化明显是总体收入水平衡量标准的阻力。（当这些数字不为老龄化作调整，中等收入家庭的收入加权平均值只上升了0.7%。因此，不同的标准，确实造成差距。）
不过，有一点需要注意的是：虽然老年人现在的收入相比于工作年龄时较低，但他们是从最近几十年经济增长中获益最多的人。例如，户主是65岁到74岁的家庭收入比1989年类似的家庭收入高出30%。相比之下，由户主是45 岁到 54岁的家庭，收入只低了 7%（见图表）。 Why have the silver-haired done relatively well? Rising Social Security (public pension) payments are one answer. The median Social Security cheque has grown by 9% in real terms over the past decade. This is probably because today’s pensioners enjoyed rising incomes while they were working. Social Security entitlement grows with average wages, so rising wages in one decade deliver larger retirement cheques in the next. 为什么老年人的收入相对更好一些？社会保障（公共养老金）的支付增加是答案之一。在过去的十年中，社会保障的支付实际增长了9%。这可能是因为如今的退休人员在他们工作的时候享受到了工资增长。社会保障福利与平均工资一同增长，因此，在一个十年里的工资增长意味着要在下一个十年提供更多的退休金支付额。 This phenomenon diminishes, but does not eliminate, ageing’s drag on incomes. Exclude over-65s entirely from the figures, and the weighted-average median income, with 2010’s population weights, grew by 1.5% (rather than 1.9%) between 2010 and 2014. 这种现象在减少了却没有消除老龄化对于收入的提高阻碍。剔除65岁以上人群的数据以及加权平均的平均收入，以2010年美国人口数量计算，美国经济从2010年到2014年增长了1.5%（而不是1.9%）。 Gender matters, too. Among women, real median earnings are up 32% since 1989; for men, growth was just 4.5%. But as more women entered the workforce, their lower earnings probably reduced average wages. Reagan’s question was simple enough for individuals to answer. For a whole country, it is much harder. 性别同样也影响着收入。在女性当中，自 1989 年以后的平均实际收入上升了 32%；在男性中，平均收入只上升了4.5%。但是，随着越来越多的女性进入劳动力市场，她们的低收入可能会拉低平均工资水平。里根的问题对于个人来说很简单，完全可以回答，但对于一个国家来说，它真的很难回答。
英文来源：经济学人 |
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