|
Currency Devaluations Are an Undeclared War 货币贬值：没有硝烟的战争 The global currency war isthreatening to prove a silent killer. So says David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. 全球货币大战正悄然蔓延战火，美林银行全球利率与汇率研究部部长David Woo如是说。 While some question the existence of any conflict -- arguing that falling exchange rates merely reflect effortsby central banks to spur lackluster domestic economies -- Woo expressesconcern. “There is a growing consensus in the market that an unspoken currencywar has broken out,” he said in a report to clients this week. “The reason why this is a war is that it is ultimately a zero-sum game -- someone gains onlybecause someone else will lose.” 有人质疑冲突到底是否存在——他们认为货币贬值仅仅是央行刺激经济的手段——而Woo对此表示担忧。“市场逐渐公认，全球货币已经不宣而战，”他在本周给客户的报告中提到，“之所以说是战争，是因为这最终是一场零和游戏——赢的人赚输的人的钱。” The standard view on war-mongeringis that by easing monetary policy, central banks from Asia to Europe are hopingto weaken their currencies to boost exports and import prices. Trade rivalsthen retaliate, creating a spiral of devaluations as witnessed in the 1930s. Just this week, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said “a lowerexchange rate is likely to be needed” after he unexpectedly cut interest ratesto a record low. 对本次战争的普遍观点是，亚欧各国央行希望放宽货币政策让本币贬值来刺激进出口，贸易对手国纷纷反击，造成1930年代的货币螺旋式贬值的局面。在毫无征兆降息至历史新低位后，澳大利亚央行行长本周声称“可能需要一个较低的汇率水平”。 Istanbul Meeting 伊斯坦布尔会议 With more than a dozen centralbanks injecting extra stimulus so far this year, currencies will be discussedwhen finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 meet next weekin Istanbul. For much of the past two years the G-20 has formally committed torefrain from targeting “exchange rates for competitive purposes.” 随着今年央行纷纷刺激市场，二十国集团的财政部长和央行行长将于下周在伊斯坦布尔开展关于货币问题的研讨会。二十国集团在过去两年肩负着抵制货币投机问题的责任。 That leaves Woo, a formerInternational Monetary Fund economist, declaring the war is one of “stealth”and warning the fallout from it is already roiling financial markets in a wayundetected by most. IMF经济学家Woo据此宣称这场战争是秘密进行的，并警告其“余波”正微不可察地破坏着金融市场。 By measuring the volatility ofcurrencies, which he calculates as the difference between the maximum andminimum exchange rate over a 26-week period, Woo estimates the dollar has beenswinging about 20 percent against both the yen and the euro. In the past 15years it was only higher following the collapse of Lehman Brothers HoldingsInc. in 2008. 通过使用26周的汇价极差来测度货币波动性，Woo估计美元兑日元和欧元将在20%的范围浮动。过去15年里，只有2008年雷曼兄弟破产事件才引起如此强的波动性。 A second gauge of volatility thatweighs currencies based on the gross domestic product of 20 major economiesdelivers the third-highest reading in two decades, topped only by the Asiancrisis of 1997-98 and Lehman’s demise, he said.It is these fluctuations thatare threatening to undermine the global economy more than some realize, Woosaid. 另一个测量波动性的标准是用20个大国的 GDP 为权重计算汇价均值，测量结果显示，纵观过去20年，本次战争造成的市场波动强度将仅次于1997-98年亚洲金融危机和雷曼兄弟倒闭。Woo因此认为，这种波动性会让人措手不及地创击全球经济。 First, they will make it costlierfor companies to take out insurance against currency flows, eating into profitmargins of exporters. More volatility may also force companies to focus more ontheir home markets, further reducing already lackluster international trade.Making foreign direct investments will also be less appealing, forcing up the costof capital for those countries with current-account deficits. 首先，企业为汇价波动购买保险的成本推升，蚕食出口企业的利润。高强度的波动性也会迫使公司专注于本国市场，进一步地抑制本就疲软的国际贸易。外商直接投资也变得缺乏吸引力，推高经常项目亏损国家的资金成本。 Woo’s bottom line: “A weak currency might provide a short-term boost to the countries engaging in currencydevaluation,” he said. “However, if everyone is playing the same game, all wewill end up with is more and higher FX volatility. This in turn will likelyexact a toll on global trade and capital flows.” Woo的基本观点是：“货币贬值也许短期内能刺激经济，”他说。“但如果所有人都玩这种手段，后果就是大家都得承担更高的汇率波动风险。反之，全球贸易和资本流动将成为牺牲品。” --From Bloomberg |
|
|
