|
Q：Eugene Charles Munster - Piper Jaffray & Co.
提问者：Eugene Charles Munster - Piper Jaffray & Co.
Hey, good afternoon and congratulations. And Tim, now that we're a month in the iPhone 7, are you seeing anything measurable in terms of the growing trend of annual upgrades?
下午好Tim。现在我们iPhone 7发售正好一个月，你那儿有什么数据能够证明今年的产品升级带来了销量逐步上升吗？
And second is, historically in terms of new product categories, you guys have always looked for unique advantage before getting into a segment. And I'm curious about the car. There are a lot of rumors out there, and would like your perspective on how you think about an advantage that Apple could add in the auto space?
另外还有一个问题，在苹果历史上，开发的每一个新产品都具有行业领先的优势，所以我对你们的汽车很好奇。现在外面关于你们汽车的传闻五花八门的，但我还是想知道你本人的看法——你觉得苹果在汽车领域里有什么优势？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
In terms of iPhone 7, Gene, the carriers that had upgrade plans, the information that we have from them is that demand is very robust. But from a worldwide point of view, the truth is that demand is outstripping supply in the vast majority of places, particularly on the iPhone 7 Plus. And so it's sort of we are in a situation at the moment, it's difficult in the early weeks to be able to differentiate. But on an anecdotal basis, it's clear the upgrade programs are a win.
亲爱的Gene，关于这iPhone 7吧，和我们合作的运营商们反映，需求是很强健的。事实上，现在全球市场的大部分地区对iPhone 7，特别是Plus的需求太强劲了，导致我们之前准备好的供给有点儿跟不上。所以现阶段呢官方数据上看不出有什么太大差异。但如果从非官方的角度来看，还是可以说明我们今年的这个产品升级做得蛮成功的哦。
I can't speak about rumors, but as you know, we look for ways that we can improve the experience and the customers' experience on different sets of products. And we are always looking at new things, and the car space in general is an area that it's clear that there is a lot of technologies that will either become available or will be able to revolutionize the car experience. And so it's interesting from that point of view, but nothing to, certainly nothing to announce today.
至于我们汽车，我个人肯定是不会对外面的传闻多作评论的，但你也知道，我们每一款产品都希望能给为客户带来更好的使用体验，也一直求新。总体来说汽车行业是一个经常催生新科技的地方，其中的一些会给乘车体验带来变革性的变化。这么看的话是很有趣的，但是今天我不打算选不了更多关于汽车的详情了。
Q：Eugene Charles Munster - Piper Jaffray & Co.
提问者：Eugene Charles Munster - Piper Jaffray & Co.
Just one quick follow up in terms of the supply. Do you think we'll be at equilibrium by the end of the quarter for iPhone supplies?
好的再问一个关于供给的小问题：你觉得季度结束时iPhone的供给会跟上需求吗？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
It's hard to say. I believe that on iPhone 7 we will. On iPhone 7 Plus, I'm not sure. I wouldn't say yes at this point, because the underlying demand looks extremely strong on both products but particularly on the iPhone 7 Plus versus our forecast going into the product launch.
这个很难说。现在对于iPhone 7和iPhone 7 Plus的需求都很旺盛，特别是7 Plus，需求远超我们的预计。所以iPhone 7达到供需平衡应该没问题，但是iPhone 7 Plus就不确定了。
Q：Kathryn Lynn Huberty - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
提问者：Kathryn Lynn Huberty - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Thanks. Good afternoon. Luca, can you help us understand what's embedded in revenue guidance for the extra week as well as any rebuilding of channel inventory given all the major products are running below target? Just trying to get at whether you see revenue and in particular iPhone growth year on year on more of a sellout basis when you adjust for those two factors? And then I have a follow up.
下午好，我想请教一下Luca，接下来的季度一共有14个星期，比平常多了一个星期，你觉得这会对苹果的收入带来什么影响？另外，我们看到苹果所有的主要产品销售量均低于目标，你们打算怎么重新规划渠道库存呢？如今你们对上述两个要素进行调整时，会更多的考虑收入以及iphone的具体销售增长而不是从“售沽程度”对吗？
A：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
回答：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
Yes Katy, sure. Let me say a few things on the 14th week and revenue up for the December quarter. Keep in mind that December quarter a year ago for us was an all-time quarterly revenue record. We think we can grow this year. As Tim said, the interest from customers on iPhone 7 and 7 Plus is very strong. The strength of our Services business, you've seen we've grown 24% in September. We think we can continue to grow very well into the December quarter.
好的Katy。首先我先说说下一个季度多出来的那个星期和我们的收入预期。相信大家都还记得去年10-12月的那个季度销量破了我们的记录，但我觉得我们今年还会继续增长。正如Tim所说，顾客对我们的iPhone 7和7 Plus兴趣浓厚。你也可以看到我们的服务业务在九月份那个季度增长了24%，我们相信这个增势可以一直保持到12月这个季度。
You mentioned the 14th week, and the few extra days do help us this quarter. But I think it's important to keep in mind that there are other factors that go and offset these extra few days. As you know, we increased iPhone channel inventory by 3.3 million units in the first quarter of 2016. As Tim said, we are very supply constrained on iPhone 7 Plus this year. We're simply more supply constrained this year than we were a year ago.
你刚刚提到下个季度多出来的那个星期，诚然，多出来这几天的销售收入有可能会让我们整个季度的报表更好看一些，但我们也应该清楚，很多其他的因素也会对收入产生正面或负面的影响。我们在2016年第一财季的时候增加了330万部渠道库存，但是今年，如Tim所说，我们收紧了iPhone 7 Plus的供给。
And then keep in mind that there were a couple of things that affect the compare as well, which is the fact that a year ago, we had an award for a patent infringement of $548 million, which is obviously a one-off item that is not going to repeat this year.
另外，在比较去年和今年第四个自然季度的收入时，还有两个因素也应考虑在内。第一，一年前，三星向我们支付了5.48亿美元的专利侵权赔偿金，这个收入显然是一次性的，今年不会再重复。
And also the foreign exchange environment remains difficult, and we expect FX to be about $650 million headwind on a year-over-year basis into the December quarter. So I hope that gives you a bit of a sense that when you take into account all these factors, we believe that this is a good guidance for the December quarter.
第二，外汇环境依然严峻。我们预计汇率会给我们今年第四自然季（苹果的2017年第一财季）带来6亿5千万美元的收入减少。把这些因素都考虑在内，我们给出的下一个季度收入指引还是比较合理的。
Q：Kathryn Lynn Huberty - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
提问者：Kathryn Lynn Huberty - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
That's great color. Thank you for that. A follow up for Tim. What should we read into the fact that R&D has more than doubled over the past three years while sales growth was sort of a fifth of that? Are R&D investments just less efficient than they were in the company's history, or should we think about that as incremental spend for products that haven't yet come to market?
非常感谢你的回答。我还有一个问题想问Tim。在过去的三年里，苹果的研发费用翻了一倍还多，但是销售的增长率只有它的五分之一。所以这是因为研发费用的使用效率变低了呢？还是因为新产品还在研发阶段，并未上市，所以还无法把增加的研发费用转换成收入呢？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
There's clearly some amount of R&D that are on products that today are in the development phase that have not reached the market, and so that's a part of it. And we feel really great about the things that we've got. We've also put a lot of emphasis on our Services business as well and on making the ecosystem even better. And so we're very much, we're confidently investing in the future, and that's the reason you see the R&D spend increasing.
很显然我们的确有一部分产品是还在研发阶段的，现在成果喜人。这些产品占据了一部分研发费用。另外我们也在重点发展服务业务，力求让我们的生态系统更好。所以我们是非常有自信地在投资未来，这也是为什么我们的研发费用在增加。
Q：Shannon S. Cross - Cross Research LLC
提问者：Shannon S. Cross - Cross Research LLC
Thank you very much. A couple of questions. The first, Tim, can you talk a bit more about China, just how you're thinking about it, where you're seeing pressure? I know you mentioned that you expect to see a significant rebound during the first quarter, but what are your customers telling you about the demand in China?
几个问题。第一个问题，我想请Tim多谈谈对中国市场的看法。你觉得苹果在中国市场表现如何？都面临着哪些压力？你刚刚预测苹果2017年第一财季的收入会有巨大反弹，请问中国的消费者对iPhone 7系列的需求可以证实这个猜测吗？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
Yeah, it's a good question, Shannon. So to sort of back up from our results for the quarter, the 90-day clock, and look at the full year of 2016, we were down 17% compared to the fiscal year 2015 which was up 84% from the previous year. So if you look at 2014 to 2016, the revenue grew 52% and the CAGR was 23%, which is really a pretty good result.
这个问题非常好，Shannon。单看2016财年的话，收入比2015财年下降了17%，但是2015财年的收入比2014财年增长了足足84%。所以如果我们把15和16财年合并起来看的话，收入就增长了52%，CAGR有23%，其实成绩还是非常好的。
Also as you probably know, the fiscal year 2016 performance was hurt by the devaluation of the currency which affected it about 3%, so the underlying business performance was 14% down. And so, why was it down?
而且你们可能也知道，我们在16财年受到了货币贬值的负面影响，业务收入因此减少3%。刨去这方面的影响之后我们实际上的收入水平下降幅度为14%。那么现在问题来了，我们的收入为什么会下降14%呢？
There's lots of reasons, but the largest one in our view is that when you look at what happened in 2015 in China, we had a surge of upgraders that came into the market for the iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus, and the upgrade rate increased relatively more in Greater China than elsewhere around the world.
原因有很多。而在我们看来，最大的理由就是2015年的时候我们的iPhone 6和6 Plus在中国掀起了前所未有的换机热潮。很多中国的消费者都选择把当时在用的手机换成了iPhone 6或者6 Plus，所以15财年大中华地区的手机销售增长幅度比其他地区的都要大。
And so when that upgrade rate in fiscal year 2016 returned to a more normal upgrade rate, which would be akin to what we saw with the iPhone 5S as a point, it had further to fall. And so that's the main reason in our view that you see a difference.
而当16财年换机率下降到一个比较正常的水平时，就会呈现为销量下降，这和当年的iPhone 5S是一个道理。
Now that spun or created another issue for us, because we didn't forecast that accurately. So in Q1 of last year, we put in too much channel inventory and had been resetting the channel inventory over the few quarters that came beyond it or came after it. And so those two issues, which really the main one is really the first one and the second one was a symptom of it, are in our views the main issue.
但是去年的我们没能精准预测到这个情况，所以又引出了另外一个问题。16年第一财季我们提供了太多的渠道库存，之后又一直有新的库存，所以后面的几个季度就要不断地清库存。所以呢，前面说的那个是根本原因，现在这个是由此而生的现象。
Now looking forward, the response to the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus has been very positive. It's very hard to gauge demand, as you know, when you're selling everything you're making. And so we'll find out more through the quarter, but we're confident enough to give you guys guidance that we're returning to growth this quarter, which obviously feels very good for us.
往前看的话，现阶段我们的顾客对iPhone 7和 7 Plus的反应非常不错，我们非常有信心在接下来的这个季度盈利增长会回到正轨，所以给大家出了一个盈利指引。当然了，现在要精准预估销量还是很难，毕竟我们卖的产品种类很多，不过我们很快就可以在下一季度的数据中看到答案。
And from a longer-term point of view, out of the 90-day clocks and so forth, we are very bullish on China. We continue to see a middle class that is booming there. There might be some sort of a new normal in the economy, but a new normal there is still a good growth rate.
长期来看我们还是很看好中国市场的，因为那里的中产阶级正在快速增长。虽然中国的经济状况会有新的变化，但新的变化依然意味着高增长。
And so with the number of middle class – people growing into the middle class and the LTE adoption rate being still fairly low, around 45%, 50% or so, then I think we continue to have a really good opportunity there, and so we continue to focus significantly in China.
越来越多的中国人进入中产阶级，然而他们的LTE使用率相对而言还是较低，只有45-50%的样子，我们在那里的增长机会还是很客观，所以之后我们依然会重点关注中国市场。
Q：Shannon S. Cross - Cross Research LLC
提问者：Shannon S. Cross - Cross Research LLC
And then can you talk a bit about acquisitions? And I don't mean like the smaller ones that you've done sort of at a normal cadence, but there was clearly a fairly large one announced at least this week in the content world. And especially if you find a way to have repatriation of some of the cash at a low tax rate possibly with the next administration. So I just, if you can give sort of an overall view of how you think about acquisitions that might be a little bit larger than normal.
那接下来可以再谈谈你们的收购计划吗？我指的是对大公司的收购哦。下一届的政府很可能会带来低税率，苹果找到方法把在海外赚到的现金调回国内了吗？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
We are open to acquisitions of any size that are of strategic value where we can deliver better products to our customers and innovate more. And so we look at a whole variety of companies, and based on that, we choose whether to move forward or not. But we're definitely open and we definitely look.
如果收购的那家公司能够为我们的客户带来更好的产品并且进一步推进创新的话，那不管那家公司本身规模大小我们都不会在意。在这一方面我们持完全开放的态度，然后会根据我们自己的标准考察，再去决定买不买。
Q：Antonio M. Sacconaghi - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
提问者：Antonio M. Sacconaghi - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Yes. Thank you. I have a question and a follow-up, please. I guess a cynic could say Apple is benefiting from an extra week this quarter and is benefiting from Samsung being in complete disarray. And yet from your guidance, it's unclear that iPhone unit growth will be up or certainly not up more than low single-digits implied from your guidance.
你好。第一个问题，接下来的这个季度多了一个星期，而且三星最近又遭遇了“原地爆炸”事件（这些都是对苹果的销售非常有利的因素），但是你们的指引里对iPhone销售量的增长幅度预测还是很模糊。增长率到底将会是多是少呢？
And I appreciate some of the issues around channel inventory build and the timing of the launch, but if I just stand back from that and say you have terrific new products, your major competitor's laying down, you have an enormous, you have a significant contribution from an extra week, arguably 7% or 8%, and yet the iPhone growth is sort of flattish, what does that really say about how investors should think about iPhone on a sustained basis growing forward? And is it reasonable to think that this is an ongoing growing business for the company?
我之前也了解到苹果今年的销量受到了你前面所说的两个主要因素的影响，但是退一步看，你们发布了自己觉得棒棒哒新产品，同时你们的主要竞争对手在这个节骨眼上又“狗带”了，而这个季度多出来的一个星期起码能给你们贡献7%到8%的收入，然而iPhone的销量还是平淡无奇，这说明了什么问题呢？现在继续认为苹果手机业务是公司的增长业务是否合理？从一个长期持续发展的角度来看，投资者们应该怎么看待这个事情？
A：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
回答：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
Toni, let me take this one. I think you mentioned a number of the things that are affecting us in the December quarter, and I went through them with Katy just a few minutes ago. You're right, we've got an extra few days. You know very well the launch timing is different. You know that we increased iPhone channel inventory by 3.3 million units a year ago. I mentioned two issues that affect us, the one-timer from a year ago that you obviously need to exclude from the compare and the FX that is the reality of our business right now.
我来回答这个问题吧。从你的提问能看出来你对影响我们新季度数据的几个因素都非常了解。不过我刚刚也提到了两个因素，一个是去年我们收到了一笔一次性的侵权罚款，还有一个是来自于汇率的负面影响，在分析比较我们的业务数据时应该把这两个因素排除在外。
But maybe the most important element of this is the fact that we are supply constrained on 7 and 7 Plus. And so when you talk about other competitors, it's not particularly relevant to us right now because we are selling everything that we can produce. And so when we look at all these things in its totality, we think that for the total company of course, we believe that revenue's going to grow. You know that we don't get into specific product from a unit standpoint giving guidance, and so we feel very confident about the trajectory for the company and for iPhone going forward.
但我觉得影响我们销售数据的最大原因还是我们控制了iPhone 7和7 Plus的供给量。至于你刚刚提到的竞争对手，我觉得这中间没有太多的可比性，因为我们现在销售的产品种类其实很多（而不是只有手机）。所以我们在预测公司的未来销量时，我们选择综合所有的产品线来看而不是每一种产品都去预测其销量变化。不过我们可以很自信地说不论是iPhone销量还是整体收入都是呈上升趋势的。
Q：Antonio M. Sacconaghi - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
提问者：Antonio M. Sacconaghi - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Okay. Tim, if I could ask you one, please. You've talked in the past about television being an area of intense interest. I was wondering if you could reaffirm that statement. Is that still the case? And then additionally, given what's happening with acquisitions, how broadly you think about the role of content.
好的。接下来这个问题我希望能请到Tim来回答。你之前提到过电视是苹果很感兴趣的一个领域，我想问现在还是这样么？最近的内容界发生了一宗大收购（译者注：即AT&T收购时代华纳一事），你觉得这件事情里面内容扮演着什么样的角色？
Apple has started creating on a very limited scale some of its own content and whether you think content creation and ownership is important to Apple, or whether Apple ultimately sees its place in the value chain as being more around the ecosystem and distribution.
苹果现在已经开始小量地自产内容了，是不是说明苹果以后会更看重内容生产这一块？内容在苹果完善整个生态圈的过程中会越来越重要吗？（感觉潜台词就是在问苹果是不是也对时代华纳感兴趣？）
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
I would confirm that television has intense interest with me and many other people here. In terms of owning content and creating content, we have started with focusing on some original content, as you point out. We've got a few things going there that we've talked about. And I think it's a great opportunity for us both from a creation point of view and an ownership point of view. and so it's is an area that we're focused on.
我可以向你确认电视依然是我们的重点兴趣所在，当然还有其他人对这一块也同样感兴趣。正如你所说，我们的确开始关注原创内容这一块了。不管是自产内容还是去获取原创内容，对于我们来说都是一个很好的机遇。
Q：Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.
提问者：Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Thank you. I have a question for Luca and then one for Tim as well. Luca, I wanted to dig into the Services business a bit more. As you pointed out, it accelerated again to 24%. How does that compare to the pace of growth of the installed base, just to help us decouple how much of it is consumption driven on a per user basis versus the base as a whole?
我的第一个问题想请Luca来回答，第二个问题想请Tim来回答。Luca，我想和你再深入讨论苹果的服务业务。你们之前提到，这一块的收入再次增长，幅度为24%。这个增幅和苹果产品的用户群增幅相比如何？我们想知道，苹果服务的消费者中，有多少是单纯冲着苹果服务本身去的，还是只是因为自己用着苹果的产品所以“顺便”也用了苹果的服务？
A：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
回答：Luca Maestri - Apple, Inc.
Simona, the installed base number is something that we talk about periodically. The last time we talked about it, it was in the January call. It is growing. Our installed base is growing very well, which is very important for us. It's growing on all major products and it's growing of course in total. When you look at our Services revenue, the growth of the Services revenue has been accelerating during the course of the year during a period when, as you know, our revenue came down slightly.
Simona，我们会定期公布我们用户群的数量。上一次是在一月份的电话会议上公布的。我们的用户数在增长，而且长势喜人。我们所有主要产品的用户数量都在增加，这对我们很重要。我们的服务业务的增势在过去的一年里逐渐加快，甚至在我们总收入轻微下降的那段时间里，我们的服务业务也还是增长的。
So what that means in practice is that what we are seeing with our customers that consume our services is that the people that are actually taking advantage of our services over time tend spend more and more on our services. We've got customers that are very engaged with our products. They're very loyal, and so you see this upward trajectory of our Services business. It's not only with the App Store but there's several categories that are growing very well for us. Tim mentioned Apple Music, but we got other parts of the business that continue to do well, even as I said during a period of time when our sales have come down a bit.
这在现实中就意味着那些一直使用我们服务的顾客越来越愿意付更多的钱购买我们的服务。而使用我们产品的顾客忠诚度都是很高的，所以你们可以看到苹果的服务业务一直在增长，不仅仅是App Store在增长，服务业务里面的其他版块，比如Tim刚刚提到的Apple Music，都增势喜人，没有受到前一段时间我们整体业务收入下滑的影响。
Q：Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.
提问者：Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Thank you. And then Tim, we've seen an increasing focus on artificial intelligence, both in smartphones like the new Pixel from Google but also in some of the home assistance, like the Amazon Echo. And you guys have obviously had Siri for a while as well. But I just am curious how you think about balancing AI with your focus on privacy. And then also how important it is to have a dedicated home assistant versus just having the phone as the home assistant?
谢谢你的回答。那么接下来我想请问Tim，现在越来越多产品开始关注人工智能，比如Google新发布的智能手机Pixel，还有Amazon发布的智能家居控制系统Echo，你们的Siri也有一段时间了。那么我很好奇，你觉得应该如何平衡AI和隐私性呢？还有就是，一边是尽心尽力的智能家居系统，一边是把智能手机当智能家居用，你怎么看待这两者的区别呢？
A：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
回答：Timothy Donald Cook - Apple, Inc.
I think to answer your second question first, I think that most people would like an assistant with them all the time. And we live in a mobile society. People are constantly moving from home to work and to other things that they may be doing.
我觉得大部分人还是希望能随时随地都能随身有个小助手的。我们现在所处的是一个移动社会，人们总是处在不停的移动当中，从家里到工作单位，再到其他地方。
 格隆汇声明：格隆汇作为免费、开放、共享的海外投资研究交流平台，并未持有任何关联公司股票。转载本文，请务必注明来源“港股那点事”及作者。
由格隆汇打造的“决战港股”海外投资嘉年华系列峰会将自2016年10月19日（周三）至2016年12月30日，在全国8大核心城市隆重召开（深圳、杭州、上海、南京、北京、成都、厦门、广州）！ 首次将中国境内的海外投资这个特殊群体（海外上市公司，拟在海外上市的公司，海外投资者、机构、监管层）聚拢在一起，结朋交友，共商全球资产配置大计。 格隆汇真心诚邀所有对海外投资感兴趣的朋友参加这次巡回峰会——这将是一次港股的“长征+北伐”盛会。期待您的参加！ 第三站将于2016年11月10日（周四）在上海召开。
|
