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投机之王--杰西·利文摩尔星盘(谢卓新)

 願隨身 2018-01-23

名人资料:Jesse Livermore - The Wallstreet's boy plunger


这是一份2001年在国外网站收集的关于Jesse Livermore的介绍资料,有编辑整理,作为档案留存。

Jesse Lauriston Livermore was one of the best-known traders of the 20th Century. Few could accumulate money, or lose money, as quickly as Livermore.

Known as the 'boy plunger' because of the manner in which he would take large stock or commodity positions, Livermore lived as he traded - full steam ahead. He was very popular with members of the opposite sex due to his good looks and flamboyant life style.


名人资料:Jesse <wbr>Livermore <wbr>- <wbr>The <wbr>Wallstreet's <wbr>boy <wbr>plunger






















Just Who Was Jesse Livermore?

Jesse Livermore was born in South Acton, Massachusetts, in 1877. The son of a farmer, he left school in his early teens, and traveled to Boston where he became a 'board boy' for Paine Webber. His position required him to update stock, bond and commodity prices on their large chalkboard.

As Livermore recorded the ever-changing prices, he noted that prices often moved in predictable patterns. He soon concluded that the markets could be beaten, and that large sums of money could be made.

At that time Livermore did not have sufficient money to trade in stocks himself, so he spent his lunch hours in bucket shops, where he could attempt to make money by predicting the direction of selected stocks and commodities. By the age of 15 he had made more than $1,000 - which would be a considerable sum in today's dollars.

Bucket shops were little more than gambling dens. After ignoring a warning to keep away from these establishments by his supervisor at Paine Webber, Livermore was sacked from his position.

The Boy Plunger was now a full-time trader. Such was his success that he was banned from entering the bucket shops in Boston. He then tried the mid-West and East Coasts, where he made some $50,000. He resorted to disguises and used false names in order to circumvent the bans. In his 20s, Jesse Livermore moved to New York.

In New York Livermore commenced his career as one of the greatest stock traders of all time. In 1906 he received a tip to short Union Pacific, and did so in a big way. The stock began to rise, and Livermore was in trouble. The San Francisco earthquake caused Union Pacific stock to plummet, leaving Livermore with a $250,000 profit. It also left him with a clear understanding of the dangers of blindly following tips.

In 1907, he gained a reputation as a 'bear raider', trading the short side of the market on a massive scale. It is believed that the powerful J.P. Morgan sent go-betweens to Livermore to ask him to scale down his activities.

W.D. Gann, in 45 Years in Wall Street (page 117) described Livermore as "one of the most spectacular traders of his day". Gann stated that Livermore was an honourable man who "believed in paying debts even after he had been relieved through the courts of bankruptcy".

In fact, Livermore and many other traders and investors, including Gann himself, once lost their money when the brokerage firm Murray Mitchell and Company failed in 1913. In Gann's words "In 1917 when Livermore came back and made a fortune, he not only paid back my proportionate part of money which I lost through the Mitchell failure, but paid everyone else". Gann added, "This was an honourable thing to do, and because of Livermore's honor and honesty, in 1934 when he was broke, I backed him and got other people to raise money and back him. Livermore came back again and made money".

Gann's one criticism of Livermore was that Livermore had only studied how to make money - not how to keep money. In Gann's words "He had the greed and the drive for power, and when he got a large amount of money, he could not trade conservatively. He tried to make the market go his way instead of waiting until the market was ready to follow the natural trend".

Livermore's success gave him a lifestyle that many could only dream about. The tall, thin blonde speculator bought a 200-foot yacht, the Anita. He dated famous women, including actress Lillian Russell. His trading exploits soon became well known, and people would often comment that someone was "as rich as Jesse Livermore".

During World War I, Livermore anticipated that coffee would have a substantial rise in price, and established huge long positions. His profits amounted to millions of dollars, however the coffee contract was voided. The government believed that he was profiteering at wartime. This bankrupted Livermore for the third time.

An aggressive trader, Livermore made, and subsequently lost, four million dollar fortunes. Much of the money was made using tactics prior to them being declared illegal by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the 1930s. The new regulations either prevented, or limited, tactics such as:

  • using inside information;
  • concealing his market positions;
  • cornering stocks; and / or
  • arranging for misleading, or incorrect, information to be published.

Livermore became well known for his tactic of waiting until a stock he had bought had risen to the point where he had made substantial paper profits, and then 'confiding' in a journalist from the New York Times, or other influential newspapers, that the stock was a great buy. Livermore would then unload his massive position, selling into the buying frenzy created by the journalist's article.

At his peak, he owned huge estates in several countries, Rolls Royce cars, and yachts, and was famous for his lavish parties.

He also maintained a secret suite of offices in Fifth Avenue. It was in these offices that Livermore ran a full-scale brokerage operation, with numerous telephone lines and private telegraph lines. The office featured a full size quote board, updated by his clerks. He also employed a team of research staff. The sole purpose of this office was to facilitate his own trading and investment activities.

In 1933, Livermore was suffering from depression. After a 26-hour drinking binge, he fell into a police station and told the policemen that he had lost his memory.

Unable to accumulate money at the rate he previously did, Livermore decided to sell his trading secrets in the form of a book. How to Trade Stocks was published in 1940 in two versions - a leather-bound edition, and an 'any man's' edition. The book failed to capture the trading public's hearts and minds.

Later that year, Jesse Livermore consumed two drinks in the Sherry-Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. He wrote an eight-page letter to his third wife, saying to her "my life has been a failure".

The man who had affectionately become known as the Boy Plunger, the Great Bear, and the Cotton King, then walked into the hotel's hat-check room, sat in a chair, and shot himself in the head. So ended the life of someone who was arguably the greatest trader of all time. Jesse Livermore, trader extraordinaire, the man who had made millions, left an estate of less than $10,000.

The New York Times had Jesse Livermore's epitaph as its editorial:

What good he did, what harm he did, what his life meant to himself and to others - such questions are for the novelist… His passion drove him on… He lived in a time when the speculating he did came to seem like that of boys pinching pennies… He left no clouds of glory behind him, nor any miasma of human misery that he had created… The 'Street' in which he operated is not what it used to be. His death punctuated the end of an era.

Livermore's Legacy

Jesse Livermore died more than 60 years ago. He left the world of trading three things:

How to Trade In Stocks : How to Trade In Stocks was copyrighted in 1940 - the year Livermore died. It is believed that he wrote the book in a desperate attempt to raise capital. The book talks about the rationale of Livermore's decision-making process while trading.

Following are some quotations from How to Trade in Stocks:

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. (Page 15)

On doing your own work and thinking for yourself:

… let me warn you that the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions. (Page 16)

On the best trades:

Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start. (Page 19)

On taking losses:

Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. (Page 21)

On holding and hoping:

If my stock does not act as I anticipated, I immediate determine that the time is not yet ripe - so I close out my commitment. (Page 22)

On 'buy and hold' investing:

Speculators in stock markets have lost money. But I believe that it is a safe statement that the money lost by speculators alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride. (Page 25)

From my point of view, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if all goes wrong, they lose it all. (Page 25)

On history repeating, and learning from the past:

The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements. (Page 51)

On tips:

Beware of inside information… all inside information. (Page 58)

…and if there was any easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it in your pocket. (Page 58)

The chart tells the entire story:

The only reason an investor or speculator should ever want to have pointed out to him is the action of the market itself. Whenever the market does not act right or in the way it should - that is reason enough for you to change your opinion and change it immediately… Remember, there is always a reason for a stock acting the way it does. But also remember: the chances are that you will not become acquainted with that reason until some time in the future, when it is too late to act on it profitably. (Page 71)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator : This trading and investment classic, supposedly written by Edwin Lefevre in 1923, is arguably the most popular book ever written about speculation.

Lefevre was a financial journalist, and the book was dedicated to Jesse Livermore. It is supposedly a novel about a fictional trader called Larry Livingston.

In reality, Livermore almost certainly wrote the book himself, with Lefevre being the editor. The book is a thinly disguised account of Livermore's life.

Despite the book being one of the most enjoyable books on trading ever written, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator contains market truths from cover to cover. A few examples include:

To learn that a man can make foolish plays for no reason whatever was a valuable lesson. [Pages 155 and 156]

In fact, I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game - that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. [Page 14]

The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. [Page 129]

… after a while, I heard a lot of calamity howling and the old stagers said everybody - except themselves - had gone crazy. [Page 34]

… and the only thing to do when a man is wrong is to be right by ceasing to be wrong. [Page 103]

But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself. [Page 122]

No trading library should be without a copy of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It is no wonder that many authors today regularly quote passages from this book.

Martin Zweig once stated that Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was "The best book I've read. I keep a supply for people who come to work for me".

Jack Schwager, author of Market Wizards and New Market Wizards says of the book:

In my interviews with over 30 of the best traders of our time, there were some questions that I raised in each conversation. One of these was: "Are there any books that you find particularly valuable and would recommend to aspiring traders?" By far, the most frequent response was 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'.

Jesse Livermore's third legacy to the world was his life story. On the one hand he was an honourable man who paid debts that he was not legally required to pay. On the other hand, he was a big time trader who would use any legal tactic to enhance his chances of making money.

The one thing his supporters and his critics agree on is that he was a true market master.



名人资料:杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse Livermore)生平简介


Jesse Livermore生于1877年 7月26日逝于1940年11月27日,闪亮而富有魅力的一生,投机行业里无出其右的奇才。充满了神秘的气息,有华尔街大熊与独狼之称,他的一生是交易的经典。

Jesse Lauriston Livermore在孩童时代他的快速理解力和远超常人的数学天赋就引人注目,13岁时父亲对他说上学对农夫来说是无用的,14岁时把他从学校带走从事农活,Jesse Lauriston Livermore遇到了打击,他的母亲私下里支持他,14岁那年他带着口袋里仅有的5美元离开了父母。他搬到了波士顿,在那找到了第一份工作,在当地Paine Webber分公司当Chalkboard Boy。他对自己记下的数据的意义很感兴趣,在数据专栏里寻找样本。一个月后,那是1892年他刚15岁,他用午休的时间在附近的"Bucket Shop" (一个股票交易场所)自己进行投机交易。当他的上司知道后,跟他谈话威胁他如果不放弃的话炒他鱿鱼。Jesse Lauriston Livermore选择了离开,他很高兴,结束了时间很短的首个工作。尽管那是他当时唯一可以逗留的地方,虽然离开的时候,显得不太体面。
 
后来他在当地Bucket Shops赚钱维生。16岁时他赚了1000美元,对他这样的年龄来说是一笔不小的数额。他一个人工作,不对任何人说他做什么,没有搭档,从不借钱。他很成功,被人们称为神奇男孩,投机男孩。后来,他带着2500美金(期间已经赚了10000美金)开始了华尔街的冒险,但是最终失败了。他只能向Ed Hutton借了1000美金。再次在Bucket Shops他熟悉的领域寻找机会。1899年22岁时他带着10000美金的起始资金再次开始了华尔街的冒险。1901年他从牛市中赢得了巨大的利润,50000美金并开始做空。这是他还必须学习的一课。尽管他判断对了市场的方向,但糟糕的操作毁掉了他的计划。他再次输光了。他的夫人拒绝把首饰当掉,只好又到Bucket Shops寻找机会。当他再次凑够了足够的资金,又回到了华尔街。他改良了系统,特别研究失败者的态度,因为他不想再次成为失败者。最终他成功了,1906年初29岁时他做空数千Union Pacific的股票。那年4月18日旧金山发生大地震,Union Pacific三天后向石头般下落,他获得了250000美金的利润。

1907秋30岁时他已经有了1百万美元。他认为自己看对了方向,在他获利了结后去了欧洲旅行。直觉告诉他他仅仅是为了不在失去利润而了结没有任何理由,回到纽约后再次大量做空。后来10月发生了真正的崩溃,24日他第一次赚到了1百万美元,仅一天之内,这天还没过去,他相信自己的交易规则,在交易日结束前他又获得了巨大的利润。他的保证金足够多第二天又可以向市场投入给市场死亡之吻。如果他成功了,那将不是1百万而是1千万的利润甚至两千万,另一方面他将会不确定,是否交易市场还会再开。朋友Warren Augustus Reed的拜访软化了他的决定,请求放弃做空,这个请求不是来自随便什么人而是JP Morgan,在那时已是传奇。Jesse Lauriston Livermore31岁时他的成就他的力量达到了暂时的高峰,他掌握着像morgan那样的力量,至少在一天之内。Jesse Lauriston Livermore同意了,不仅出于无私也是出于计算。他将没有更多的股票可以做空,第二天开始获利了结,然后他开始疯狂买进,引起了市场反弹,他买进了其他100000股在交易日结束时获得了3百万的利润。
 
好景不长。同一年他遇到了Percy Thomas, 棉花大王。这给他带来了厄运。尽管Livermore原则上拒绝和别人合作,尽管在与Thomas认识出问过自己重要的问题如果他能很好的了解讯息为什么会破产,Thomas还是把他拉下了水。Livermore渐渐扔掉了多年来获得的经验,在这次冒险中越陷越深,这一课陪上了3百万美元,而只有不到300000的回报。当他试图尽快赢回他的损失时,犯下了又一个错误。在下个月绝望的尝试中最终背上了1百万的债务。
 
几个月后他才找到力量去分析他的态度,第一次意识到了自己交易中的情绪部分。他的衰落源于自我。他已经习以为常的去应付失败,然而真正把他甩出成功之路的是1907年10月24日那次过高的成就。他痛苦的学到,有时成就比失败更让人难以承受。1915年2月Livermore38岁时宣布破产。思想轻松了带着一个老朋友的起始资金,他又开始了尝试。事态发展的不错,1917年初他偿还了债务,尽管由于破产这不是必须的,他的债务人毫无例外的谢绝了他提供的利息。
 
二十年代期间Livermore总是报道的主题,他对这些基本从不评论。他的态度更增添了他的传奇。二十年代是他的好时候。
 
从1929年夏Livermore察觉到了过热的市场和恶化的供求比例。他尝试着小规模的做空多种股票,但是很快兑现了因为市场还没有准备好,Livermore停止了做空。在第三次的尝试才获得了他的位置,开始用久经考验的方式建仓。这给他在短期内带来超过1亿的财富。这比美国大萧条初期多半破产更具影响,他收到了很多绝望的人们的死亡威胁,要突然袭击杀死他,他应该对这个灾难负责。
 
他达到了成就的顶峰。然而快乐并没有伴他而来,和第二任妻子的离异使他更加的沮丧,失去了投机游戏的兴趣,他的财富很快的蒸发掉了。1934年仅仅他最辉煌成就的5年后再次宣布破产,失去了一切。1939年他写了一本书如何交易股票,最后尝试着东山再起,他受到了打击,他那传奇示的感觉不复存在。1940年11月27日,他在Sherry Netherland Hotels的厕所里用手枪结束了他的生命。
 
江恩在《江恩:华尔街四十五年》中的章节“历史上的大炒家”,列举了不少大炒家的故事,其中一个就是股票作手利文摩尔。江恩称利文摩尔是个有信用的人,他虽然屡屡破产,但只要恢复元气,一定还债(包括欠江恩的钱)。高夫曾提到利文摩尔在1929年便彻底失败,而江恩说他在1934年再次破产后又赚了钱,当然最后确实在破产状态下自杀。《金融心理学》的作者拉斯-特维德还提到过利文摩尔是如何逃过1929年大崩盘的,当时他雇佣40名“统计员”作为助手,在没有计算机的情况下,对下跌和上涨的股票家数进行计算。在他们广泛选取的1002只股票中,有614只同一时期下跌,只有338只上涨,所以尽管工业指数成份股涨势喜人,利文摩尔感到大势不妙,赶紧走人。
 
江恩对这位大炒家的总结是:“利文摩尔的弱点之一是他除了学习如何赚钱之外,什么都不学。他从不学习保存资金的方法。他贪心,有权力欲,所以当他赚了一大笔钱以后,就不再稳妥地进行交易。他试图让市场跟着他的意愿走,而不是等待市场自然地转势”。这也是所有最终失败的大炒家的通病,当他们赚到大钱后,就忘却了遇事小心谨慎的成功之道,变得过度交易,没考虑意外的出现,忘乎所以,最后市场经常只有他一个买家,其他都是卖家。
 
Livermore最后自杀是因为婚姻生活的失败导致抑郁症,而非破产自杀。(如果你做过研究你会知道他曾经四次破产,所以破产对于他不是什么打击,并且他破产后的生活还算过的可以;1934年破产后的第一件事是与他妻子去欧洲旅行了20月,在上甲板前,他对记者说:“我希望解决我思想中的一些问题”)。除了他自己的最后不幸,他的家人大多也以悲剧收场,他妻子曾经枪击他的儿子Jesse livermore Jr.,他的儿子Jesse Livermore Jr. 深度酒精中毒,虐待妻子并且差一点杀死他妻子。
 
股票作手回忆录是在1929年股灾后他的人生达到最高峰时写的,由一位记者进行编辑润色,类似回忆录,但是并非完全史实,而是有些艺术虚构。。。
(文章摘自外汇论坛,发贴人:Leonardo1977) 

 
Izul注:本篇介绍资料提到Livermore在Sherry Netherland Hotels的厕所里自杀,但有国外其它资料记载的是他在饭店里醉酒后留下遗言,然后坐在衣帽间的沙发上开枪自杀。

文章引用自:http://


对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse Livermore)的生时校正


在金融市场这个领域,W.D. Gann(William D. Gann:威廉·江恩)和Jesse Livermore(Jesse L. Livermore:杰西·利文摩尔,利文摩尔也有翻译成利物莫、利物默等)是两位令我敬仰的大师。Gann以其深奥、玄妙而精准的分析技术流传至今,被他的时代誉为交易大师。而Livermore则被称为最具传奇色彩的投机奇才,一生闪亮而富有魅力,至今仍是许多青年专业投资家的偶像。
 
多年以前我专门收集过他们两位的资料。Gann的信息很容易获得,应有尽有,由于他出版的专著多,加上声名显赫,所以在AstroDatabank的名人数据库里就可以找到他的记载。Livermore就不同了,他虽名望盛极一时,也有著作出版,但影响范围主要是在专业领域,另外,以自杀作为其人生最后的收局也为他的一世英名蒙上了缺憾。一直以来我没有找到他的完整出生资料,以此为憾。令人意外的是,前两天和朋友聊天时提起了他,他的出生日期竟被朋友找到了。。。拿到他的出生日期,我脑子里闪过的第一个念头就是要找出他的出生时间。
 
根据记载,他的出生日期是1877年7月26日,出生于美国的South Acton。South Acton的经纬数据为:42.27N,71.27W,根据美国州数据采用的时区马塞诸塞州按西5区计算。下面来记录对他的本命盘时间的推导细节,以纪念这位传奇人物。
 
对于Livermore留给人们最深刻的印象是:自我、高傲、正直、对数字拥有极好的记忆力和敏锐的思维、喜好赌博和投机、财来财去、多情、奢侈的生活、三次婚姻、不争气的下一代、以及最后自杀结束生命。
 
首先看日盘特征,自我、高傲是狮子座的典型特征,木星落射手强势,与金星形成准确的相位利财,日水合相为人聪明好思考,火土合相凶星力量集中,既代表顽强的意志力、专横固执的行为,也存在着危险、暴力倾向。大凡生出名人的盘,多数盘中拥有准确相位的行星。Livermore是金木准确相拱在一度之内,财运极强,另外,日水合相的同时形成纬照,智慧超凡。这个日盘没有显著的恒星照耀,所以初步推测必定有关键行星落在四角。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
再来考虑定位宫位问题。赌博投机兴趣和运气以5宫为首要,先放入木星,木星庙旺落本位宫,投机天赋很强。火土凶星汇聚并未对其关键行星产生大的刑克,所以自杀的悲惨结局就首先考虑火土落入8宫,这样上升点就定位在狮子座,进一步强化了他的自我而正直的特征。接着,数字天赋和交易(短线投机)才华以水星为代表,仅是日水相位还不足以透视出他超群的水星力量,将上升点调整到水星附近,让水星在盘中最为突出,相应地水星为2宫和11宫的主宰星,突出了他的财运和人缘(多次破产均有朋友相助,同时一生亦以喜好豪华party闻名)。剩下的金星落1宫,符合他为人多情、奢侈豪华生活的特点,月亮落在7宫,重视婚姻家庭生活,但宫主星为土星,与火星合在8宫受克,婚姻给他带来的灾难是深重的。
 
在没有强力恒星的支持下,考虑到Livermore对数字的超人天赋,就进一步将水星定位在准确与上升点相合的位置。这样福点落在水瓶座22-23度,福点有金木相位守护大吉,但同时定位星土星受克,幸运与灾难相辅相成,太阳也与上升点相合,但落在了12宫,这与他为人神秘、低调、不事张扬相符,同时12宫的精神、心理障碍亦是他晚年自杀的主要原因之一,12宫主宰星月亮落7宫,体现出婚姻家庭是造成太阳(命主)悲剧的罪魁祸首。
 
最后剩下的基本点是关于其子女情况。Livermore的两位公子都是绝对的帅哥,相貌堂堂,但却是“逆子”,两个儿子的放纵和逆天行为估计也给他的晚年带来很大的沮丧和痛苦。星盘中5宫落入木星,但对其子女却未能发挥其投机天赋般的作用。木星是受到火土的潜在威胁的,但这个相位由木星主导,不算凶险,只是在开启了子女点(男性)这个命运点后,就会发现它落在了双子19-20度,准确地与火土相刑,这才是关键。那么针对5宫的投机情况,打开投机点,它出现在巨蟹24度,恰属于恒星Procyon的位置,这是一颗凶吉属性都很极端的星,代表行动力、突然的成功然后陷入灾难、提升及暴力,凶吉参半亦是Livermore一生交易的真实写照,巨蟹24度属性为火,主宰星为木星,从另一个侧面体现出其投机运和操作风格。
 
这样,Livermore的星盘就基本出来了。接下来再根据他的大事记结合推运对生时进行校验和调整。由于有关Livermore的事件记载很少有精确到日的,所以时间校正的精确程度不求分秒必争。
 
我习惯以Degree-for-year象征推运作为主要手段,对个别有日期记载的事件,再考量流年的影响。据说校正生时最好的方法是精确计算的主限法,若根据ZET软件中的Direction Equatorial推导,Livermore的生时应比5:12提早一些,不过比较之后我感觉简化了的Direction效果更好,其校正的结果配合流年事件的对应效果也较Direction Equatorial更佳。
 
1、1891年,Livermore14岁时离开家乡打工,同时开始投机交易。
 
对只有年份的事件,我按其生日做Direction推运盘。这一年,水星携上升点推进到狮子座的25度,与木星形成准确的相位,代表机遇和新发展。同时火土推进到白羊3-4度,与本命太阳形成准确相位,这个考验也体现出了那年的磨难,先是从家乡逃离到波士顿,然后再是在工作中因参与投机交易的缘故而被解雇。之后,Livermore开始了专职投机之路。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
 
2、1901年24岁时,他获取了5万美金的巨大收益,但随后做空亏掉了全部,第二次破产。
 
这一年的推运盘是太阳推进到狮子座28度,与中天相拱,Livermore的事业就是钱财,那年是他有生以来达到的第一个高度。同时,命运弄人,他本命的亮点——金木却推进到处女座的20度和摩羯座的19度,准确地与本命火土对应着,诱发着8宫的火土破财。

对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
 
3、1907年10月,他达到了一生之中的第二个顶峰,JP Morgan(摩根财团)请求Livermore停止放空以挽救市场,这一年他获利丰厚。但命运再次弄人,也是这一年发生了转折,因合作问题被人拉下水,随后即开始亏钱,最终亏掉全部后并负债百万美元。
 
资料记载的是10月24日Morgan派人拜访他,这一天的流年是木星经过上升点和水星,太阳经过下中天,金星位于天底支持着经过上升点的木星,是他春风得意之刻。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 

从推运盘看,这一年金星推进到26度,与本命木星的相位紧密,命主星太阳推进到第二宫宫头(1906年进入),不过,这个位置也恰巧是推进到了本命南交点的位置,推进中的南交点也同时与本命太阳纠缠着,财来财去再一次发生在Livermore身上。(因Blog文章图片数量限制,本推运图略)
 
4、1915年2月,Livermore宣布破产,这是Livermore第三次破产。
 
先看Livermore1915年2月的月亮返照图。返照火星落下降点,交点轴线扫过其本命金星,土星对冲着木星,而木星则移动到了本命交点的轴线,这是一个即折腾又困苦的一个月。(因Blog文章图片数量限制,月亮返照图略)
 
再返回到象征推运盘中,1915年2月,Livermore的本命土星推进到了中天白羊28度,与中天准确相合,水星携上升点推进到处女座18度,与对面的火星对冲。不过,土星过了10宫形成了挫折之后亦会带来机遇。Livermore宣布破产后债务即被免除,他没有了思想上的压力可以轻装上阵了,所以当他恢复交易之后再次开始赚钱。盘中的火星在白羊26度,推进两年后也与中天相合,火星是其10宫主宰星,所两年后也就是1917年初,他清偿了所有被免除的债务,并继续盈利。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
 
5、1929年夏季,Livermore达到了一生第三个顶峰,也是最后的辉煌,他做空股票市场令股市崩盘,在三个月内下跌近50%,引发了持续3年的熊市。但也正是在这一年,他的运势在达到巅峰后开始走下坡路了,二婚的妻子离开了他,财运也开始衰败。5年后,也就是1934年,Livermore第四次破产。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正

根据道琼斯指数的走势图,1929年的股市崩盘开始于9月初。以这个时间做出的推运盘中,火土位于盘中高点与上升下降点相刑,标志着下坡路的开始,木星前一年合月之后开始离开,太阳也与木星呈出相位运动。5年后,火土向前推进5度,与月亮准确相刑,Livermore再次破产。
 
6、1940年11月27日,Livermore开枪自杀。
 
Livermore有具体日期记载的事件不多,死亡日期就显得格外重要。根据有关资料记载,Livermore自杀后的第二日其子才去认尸,所以自杀的时间发生在午后或夜晚的可能性较大。1940年11月27日那天的流年星盘上,土星位于盘中高点与上升点和水星相刑,火星经过4宫与本命太阳相刑,同时窥视着8宫宫首,流年金木尾随着土火但没有凶星力量强,流年水星与12宫主月亮准确相刑并与8宫的火土相拱,自杀是在一种异常沮丧和不安定的精神状态下进行的,并意图寻求解脱,流年的月亮当日经过天蝎座,同时引发了流年的火星、土星、水星的激烈作用。结合Livermore临死前留给他第三任妻子的信尾写着:我的人生是一场失败!这个投机奇才亡于心魔。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
最后看看Livermore结束生命时的象征推运盘。盘中突出的是金星落在下中天过1度,木星六合中天过1度,事实上Livermore于1939年著书出版,行星对那年的影响还是有利的,只是不料相隔一年他就自杀了。推进中的水星运行到天枰14度,与12宫宫首形成准确相刑,预示着心灵和精神层面的一个关口。福点,另一个盘中突出之处,被火土准确相刑。无独有偶,如果计算出Livermore本命的Anareta点,就会发现它与福点位于同一位置,即22度28分,算是巧合,火土凶星同时对这两个点形成威胁,表明行运进入到了生死攸关的一年,可惜Livermore没能熬过这一关。
 
对杰西·利文摩尔(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生时校正
 
 
根据前述的推运校验,看来初步确定的5点12分生时已没有再进行调整的必要。目前手头拥有的详细资料还有限,若日后能找到关于他更翔实的传记,再仔细参对。
 


Livermore一生传奇而闪亮,但却是个悲剧终结,他的勇气、智慧、正直和超人的意志力所闪耀出的魅力永不会磨灭,而他更以自己的屡次惨痛失败警醒后人什么才是投机交易的最大敌人。Gann和Livermore是老相识,Livermore曾通过Gann的经纪公司做交易,在Livermore破产的时候Gann曾支援过他,二人之间亦有很好的友谊,但他们对于投机和操作的风格却有着天壤之别。Gann在其著作《华尔街45年》里对这位大炒家的总结是:“Livermore的弱点之一是他除了学习如何赚钱之外,什么都不学。他从不学习保存资金的方法。他贪心,有权力欲,所以当他赚了一大笔钱以后,就不再稳妥地进行交易。他试图让市场跟着他的意愿走,而不是等待市场自然地转势”。Gann依靠技术并遵循规则适度交易,保持了不败的记录,这才是真正意义上的成功者。如果Livermore能够吸取Gann的交易理念和规则并恪守,那又会是怎样的一个结局?但Livermore就是Livermore,其人性的弱点损毁了他的超凡才赋,命运决定了他谱写出的生命历程是闪烁着无尽荣耀的悲剧,正如《纽约时报》所引用的Livermore墓志铭作出的评价:他的去世为一个时代划上了句号,他的功过任由后人评说。。。(Izul/2006.5.5,23:07)
 

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