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The number of air-conditioners worldwide is predicted to soar from 1.6 billion units today to 5.6 billion units by midcentury, according to a report issued Tuesday by the International Energy Agency. If left unchecked, by 2050 air-conditioners would use as much electricity as China does for all activities today. 根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)周二发布的报告，到本世纪中期，全球的空调数量预计会从今天的16亿台飙升至56亿台。如果不加管束，2050年的空调耗电量将相当于中国今天所有活动的用电量。 Greenhouse gas emissions released by coal and natural gas plants when generating electricity to power those air-conditioners would nearly double, from 1.25 billion tons in 2016 to 2.28 billion tons in 2050, the report says. Those emissions would contribute to global warming, which could further heighten the demand for air-conditioning. 报告称，到2050年，给空调机供电的燃煤和天然气发电厂排放的温室气体将接近翻倍，从2016年的12.5亿吨增长至22.8亿吨。这些排放将导致全球变暖，可能进一步加剧人们对空调的需求。 Right now air-conditioning is concentrated in a handful of countries, mainly in the United States and Japan, and increasingly in China. 目前，空调的使用集中在少数几个国家，主要是美国和日本，中国也在逐渐增多。 As incomes in those countries rise, however, more people are installing air-conditioners in their homes. The energy agency predicts much of the growth in air-conditioning will occur in India, China and Indonesia. 然而，随着这些国家收入提高，越来越多的人正在家里安装空调。能源署预计，空调的增长大部分会出现在印度、中国和印度尼西亚。 Some of the spread is simply being driven by a desire for comfort in parts of the world that have always been hot. But other factors are at play. 在世界上一些向来很热的地区，空调的普及仅仅是因为人们渴望获得舒适。但也有其他因素的作用。 For example, as household wealth increases, so does the presence of household appliances like refrigerators and televisions, the report notes. These appliances generate heat, making homes warmer. 比如，报告指出，随着家庭财富增长，冰箱和电视等家用电器也越来越多。这些电器会产生热量，使屋内更热。 And because air-conditioners work in part by venting hot air outside, they also make the surrounding neighborhood warmer. Practically speaking, if enough of your neighbors buy an air-conditioner it may increase the temperature in your home enough to drive you to do the same. 而且，由于空调的运行部分是通过向室外排出热气，所以它们也会使周围的环境更热。报告称，据预计，空调将使某些城市的夜间气温提高大约一摄氏度。实际上，如果你有足够多的邻居买了空调，那么你家的温度可能也会升高，从而促使你也买空调。 And then, of course, there’s climate change. India is already one degree Fahrenheit warmer on average than it was a century ago. This has led to more “cooling degree days,” or days when average temperatures are warm enough to necessitate air-conditioning. 当然了，还有气候变化。印度的平均气温已比一个世纪以前高了一华氏度。这就导致“冷度日”更多，也就是平均温度已经热到必须使用空调的日子。 Many air-conditioners on sale in India today use twice as much electricity to provide the same amount of cooling as more efficient units, Dr. Davis said. 戴维斯博士称，如今印度市面上的许多空调提供相同制冷效果所需的电量比高效空调多出两倍。 On the other end of the spectrum, air-conditioners sold in Japan and the European Union tend to be 25 percent more efficient than units sold in the United States and China. 而在做得较好的地方，比如日本和欧盟，市面上的空调效率往往比美国和中国市面上的空调高出25%。 Dr. Davis said electricity prices must also play a role in developing countries. “It is hard to make more progress on any of those fronts without more rational pricing for electricity,” he said. Accounting for emissions in the cost of electricity and removing subsidies would encourage more efficient air-conditioning and more sustainable buildings, he said. 戴维斯博士表示，电力价格也应该在发展中国家发挥作用。“如果没有更合理的电价，就很难在这些领域取得更大进展，”他说。他表示，让人们通过支付电费的方式为排放负责，再加上取消补贴，将会鼓励人们使用更高效的空调，修建更有利于可持续发展的建筑。 The report also envisions a role for renewable energies — especially solar power, which to some degree aligns the peak of its energy generation, in the middle of the day, with the peak demand for cooling. 该报告还展望了可再生能源在未来的角色，尤其是太阳能。从某种程度上讲，在正午时分制冷需求最旺盛的时刻，太阳能的发电量也是最高的。 |
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