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We've all heard that robots are going to take our jobs -- but what can we do about it? Innovation expert David Lee says that we should start designing jobs that unlock our hidden talents and passions -- the things we spend our weekends doing -- to keep us relevant in the age of robotics. 'Start asking people what problems they're inspired to solve and what talents they want to bring to work,' Lee says. 'When you invite people to be more, they can amaze us with how much more they can be.' 我们都听说机器人将会取代我们的工作——但我们能如何应对呢？革新专家戴维·李认为，我们应该开始设计那些能发掘我们潜在天赋和热情的工作——那些我们会在周末做的事——从而让自己在机器人时代仍具价值。“首先，询问人们一心想解决什么问题，以及他们想在工作中展示什么天赋。”李说，“当你请人们施展才华时，他们展现的潜能可能令人惊奇。” 输12 WHY JOBS OF THE FUTURE WON’T FEEL LIKE WORK  So there’s a lot of valid concern these days that our technology is getting so smart that we’ve put ourselves on the path to a jobless future. And I think the example of a self-driving car is actually the easiest one to see. So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons. But did you know that “driver” is actually the most common job in 29 of the 50 US states? What’s going to happen to these jobs when we’re no longer driving our cars or cooking our food or even diagnosing our own diseases? 当今有许多实实在在的担心，担心技术正变得如此智能，我们几乎是在把自己引向失业。自动驾驶汽车是其中最浅显的一个例子。不管怎样，自动驾驶都是非常棒的事。但你是否知道，在美国50个州中的29个，司机都是最普遍的职业。当我们不再需要司机驾驶汽车，也不需要人来烹煮食物，甚至不需要医生来诊断疾病，这些工作岗位将何去何从？
Well, a recent study from Forrester Research goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs might disappear over the next 10 years. To put that in perspective, that’s three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis. And it’s not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk. On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains in the quality of analysis and decision-making because of machine learning. So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change. 来自弗雷斯特研究公司的一份研究报告显示，目前预计，未来10年可能有2500万个工作会消失。换个方式说，这相当于金融危机之后消失的职业数量的3倍，而且不只是蓝领职业有消失的危险。放眼华尔街和整个硅谷，机器学习在分析和决策中的应用取得了巨大成就。即便最聪明、最高薪的人也会被这一改变所影响。
What’s clear is that no matter what your job is, at least some, if not all of your work, is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years. And that’s exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels. But if our politicians can’t agree on things like health care or even school lunches, I just don’t see a path where they’ll find consensus on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income. Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry. We have to recognize the change that’s ahead of us and start to design the new kinds of jobs that will still be relevant in the age of robotics. 很明显，无论你的职业是什么，即便不是全部也至少有一部分会在接下来的几年里被机器人或软件所取代。而这恰恰是像马克·扎克伯格和比尔·盖茨这样的人在讨论政府需要保障人们最低收入水平的原因。但如果政客们连医保、学校午餐之类的事情都无法达成一致。我不觉得他们能在这样巨大且昂贵的全民基本生活保障的事情上达成一致。相反，我认为应该由我们这些行业内的人去引导。我们必须意识到面临的变化，并着手设计新的工作，使其在机器时代仍具有意义。 
The good news is that we have faced down and recovered two mass extinctions of jobs before. From 1870 to 1970, the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent, and then again from 1950 to 2010, the percent of Americans working in factories fell by 75 percent. The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time. We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories, and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy. The rate of change today suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust, and if we don’t react fast enough, that means by the time today’s elementary-school students are college-aged, we could be living in a world that’s robotic, largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression. 好消息是，我们之前经历过两次大的失业潮和经济复苏：1870年到1970年，在农场工作的美国工人数量下降了90%；而1950年到2010年，工厂里的美国工人数量下降了75%。不过，我们这次面临的挑战是“时间”。我们有100年的时间从农场转向工厂，又花了60年全面建立起服务业经济。如今的变化速度意味着我们只有10到15年来调整，如果我们不尽快作出反应，那意味着，当今天的小学生上大学的时候，我们可能就生活在一个充斥着机器人并伴随大量失业人群的萧条世界里了。
But I don’t think it has to be this way. You see, I work in innovation, and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies. Certainly some of these technologies are even specifically designed to replace human workers. But I believe that if we start taking steps right now to change the nature of work, we can not only create environments where people love coming to work but also generate the innovation that we need to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology. I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future is to rediscover what makes us human, and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions that we carry with us every day. 但我不认为未来一定会这样。我的工作是革新，我的部分工作是帮助大公司应用新技术。当然，其中有些技术就是专门设计来取代人类工作者的。但是我相信，如果我们现在开始着手去改变工作性质，我们不仅可以创造人们所热爱的工作环境，还可以产生我们所需要的创新来代替终将流失于技术的数百万职业。我认为，预防未来失业的关键在于，重新发现人类自身并创造新一代以人为本的职业，来释放人类身上隐藏的天赋和激情。
But first, I think it’s important to recognize that we brought this problem on ourselves. And it’s not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots. But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago, we still hold on to this factory mindset of standardization and de-skilling. We still define jobs around procedural tasks and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks. We’ve created narrow job definitions like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver and then asked people to form entire careers around these singular tasks. 但首先，我认为，重要的是要认识到问题是我们自己造成的。这不仅仅是因为我们创造了机器人。尽管几十年间很多工作已经与工厂无关，我们却仍然固守工厂那种去技能化的标准化思维。我们仍围绕程序化任务来定义工作，然后按照人们执行任务的小时数支付薪水。我们创造了狭隘的工作定义，比如收银员、贷款业务员或出租车司机，然后让人们围绕这些单调的任务去打造整个职业生涯。
These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects. The first is that these narrowly defined jobs will be the first to be displaced by robots, because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build. But second, we have accidentally made it so that millions of workers around the world have unbelievably boring working lives. 这些选择事实上带给我们两个危险的副作用：首先，这些被狭隘定义的工作会最先被机器人替代，因为单任务的机器人是最容易制造的；其次，这种不经意间的选择让全世界成千上万的人从事着难以置信的无聊工作。
 Let’s take the example of a call center agent. Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs because we’ve taken most of the need for brainpower out of the person and put it into the system. For most of their day, they click on screens, they read scripts. They act more like machines than humans. And unfortunately, over the next few years, as our technology gets more advanced, they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers, will see the vast majority of their work disappear. 我们来看看呼叫中心客服的例子。过去几十年，我们夸耀更低的运营成本，因为我们把对脑力的大部分要求从人身上拿出来放进了应答系统中。在一天的大多数时间里，客服只是点击屏幕，念念脚本。他们的行为模式更像机器而不是人类。而且不幸的是，接下来几年，随着技术更加先进，他们以及诸如书记员和簿记员那样的人将面临工作机会的大量丧失。
To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs that are less centered on the tasks that a person does and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work. For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work, but human beings have an amazing ability to bring together capability with creativity when faced with problems that we’ve never seen before. It’s when every day brings a little bit of a surprise that we have designed work for humans and not for robots. Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world, but so do our nurses and our plumbers and our therapists. You know, it’s the nature of too many companies and organizations to just ask people to come to work and do your job. But if you work is better done by a robot, or your decisions better made by an AI, what are you supposed to be doing? 要应对这一点，我们必须开始创造新的职业，那种不那么以人的任务为中心而是更集中在人的工作技巧层面的职业。比如，机器更适合重复性和受限的工作，而人类具有不可思议的能力把激发自己的创造力，去应对那些之前从未遇到过的新问题。当我们给人类而非机器人设计工作时，每天都会带来一点点惊喜。我们的企业家和工程师早已出现在这个世上，而我们的护士、水管工、心理咨询师同样如此。如今太多的公司和组织只是让人们来上个班干个事。但如果你的工作，机器人可以完成得更好，或者机器人做的决定都比你强，你还能做什么呢？
Well, I think for the manager, we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing over the next few years and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it. We need to create environments where both human beings and robots thrive. I say, let’s give more work to the robots, and let’s start with the work that we absolutely hate doing. Here, robot, process this painfully idiotic report. 我认为，对于管理者而言，需要现实地思考一下，接下来几年什么工作会消失并开始计划用更有意义、更有价值的工作去替代它们。我们需要创造人类和机器人可以共同成长的环境。让我们给机器人更多的工作，就从我们最讨厌做的工作开始吧。嘿，机器人，处理掉这个愚蠢的报道。
And move this box. Thank you. 再搬走这个盒子。谢谢。
And for the human beings, we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago. He says we have to make it so that people don’t leave too much of themselves in the trunk of their car. I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends. Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays. They’re artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes. But on Monday, they’re back to being Junior HR Specialist and Systems Analyst 3. 对于人类自身，我们应该遵从芝加哥大学哈利·戴维斯的建议。他说，我们必须做到让人们不把太多的自己放在后备箱中。我的意思是，人们在周末会变得非常厉害。想一想你认识的人以及他们在周六做的事。他们是艺术家、木匠、厨师和运动员。但是，到了周一，他们又变成了人力资源初级专员或3号系统分析员。
You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring, but they’re actually a subtle encouragement for people to make narrow and boring job contributions. But I’ve seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more, they can amaze us with how much more they can be. 这些狭隘的职业名称不仅听上去很无趣，其实还潜移默化鼓动人们去为狭隘和无聊的职业奉献。但我已经见识过了，当你邀请人们做更多时，他们能让我们刮目相看。 
A few years ago, I was working at a large bank that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture. So my team and I designed a prototyping contest that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted. We were actually trying to figure out whether or not the primary limiter to innovation was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent, and it turns out it was neither one. It was an empowerment problem. And the results of the program were amazing. We started by inviting people to re-envision what it is they could bring to a team. This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted but also be anything that you wanted. And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles, they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents to the problems that they were trying to solve. We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects, and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes. 几年前，我在一个大银行工作，试着把更多创新带进它的公司文化中。于是，我和我的团队设计了一个模型比赛，邀请每个人来建造任何他们想建造的东西。我们其实想试着找出限制创新的主要原因是什么——究竟是缺少想法还是缺少天赋，结果两者都不是。这是一个授权的问题。这个项目的结果非常惊人。我们起初邀请人们来重新构想他们能给团队带来的东西。这个比赛不仅是天马行空去创造的机会，也是一个做自己的机会。当人们不再被他们每天的工作头衔所限制时，他们会把各种不同的技能和天赋尽情应用到尝试要解决的问题中去。我们看见技术人员成为设计师、营销人员变成建筑师、金融人员化身段子手。
We ran this program twice, and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years. Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value, building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers, easier desktop tools for branches and even a thank you card system that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience. Over the course of the eight weeks, people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work. People learned new skills, they met new people, and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said, “I have to tell you, the last few weeks has been one of the most intense, hardest working experiences of my entire life, but not one second of it felt like work.” 这个项目我们运作了两次，每一次都有400多人在工作中展示出他们意想不到的天赋并且解决了他们很多年前就想解决的问题。他们共同创造了数百万美元的价值，创建了更好的呼叫中心按键系统、更易于使用的桌面工具等东西，甚至还有一个感谢信系统——这些都成为员工工作体验的基石。在8周时间里，人们展现了他们从未想过要在工作中使用的神通。人们学会了新的技巧，结交了新的朋友，最后有个人把我拉到一边说：“我得告诉你，这几个礼拜是我这辈子最紧张、最辛苦的工作经历，但我没有一刻感觉是在工作。”
And that’s the key. For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators. They had been dreaming of solutions to problems that had been bugging them for years, and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality. And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines. For now, our machines do not get frustrated, they do not get annoyed, and they certainly don’t imagine. 这就是关键。在那几周里，人们需要成为创造者和革新者。他们一直梦想解决那些烦扰了他们好多年的问题，而这是一个把梦想变为现实的机会，而有梦想是我们区别于机器的重要部分。目前，我们的机器不会有挫败感，它们不会被惹怒，它们当然也不具有想象力。
But we, as human beings—we feel pain, we get frustrated. And it’s when we’re most annoyed and most curious that we’re motivated to dig into a problem and create change. Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services, and even new industries. 但是我们，作为人类，我们会感到痛苦，我们会觉得沮丧。而我们最为烦恼和最为好奇之时就是我们产生动力去深究问题并作出改变之时。我们的想象力是新产品、新服务甚至新工业的诞生地。
 I believe that the jobs of the future will come from the minds of people who today we call analysts and specialists, but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow into becoming explorers and inventors. If we really want to robot-proof our jobs, we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset of telling people what to do and instead start asking them what problems they’re inspired to solve and what talents they want to bring to work. Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays, you’ll look forward to Mondays more, and those feelings that we have about Mondays are part of what makes us human. 我相信，未来的职业将源于我们今天称为分析员和专员那些人的头脑，但我们首先要为他们提供成为发现者和创新者所需要的自由和保护。如果我们确实想让工作不被机器人取代，作为领导者，我们就需要抛弃指使人们做事的模式，而应该询问他们想解决什么问题以及他们想在工作中展示什么天赋。因为，当你可以把周六的自己带到周三的工作中时，你会更期待周一，而对周一的那些感觉是人性的一部分。
And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines, I invite you all to work alongside me to bring more humanity to our working lives. 在为人工智能时代重新设计工作的过程中，我邀请你们所有人和我一起努力，把更多的人性带入我们的工作生活中。
Thank you. 谢谢。 |
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