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今天还是一篇我写的英文文章。为了方便各位，后面就附一个Google自动翻译吧。 In Economics, the difference between 10 Year and 2 Year Bond Yields is one of the leading indicators that help investors to observe any significant changes in the economy. Let’s break things down a little further. Firstly, common sense dictates that if you want to make a term deposit in the bank, the rate you can get from the long-term deposit will be more than short term. Therefore, the spread between long-term and short-term return rate should always be positive, well, in most of the time. However in some historical periods, sometimes the yield spread would be “flatted” (i.e., drop close to zero) or even become negative, in some extreme cases. If that happens, where short-term returns are higher than long-term returns, this is seen as an economic overheat, and a recession is coming. From the chart below, we can see that the current yield spread is heading towards zero. Since the Fed is guaranteed to have four rate hikes in 2018, and more increases are foreseeable in 2019, the spread is very likely to go negative sooner or later. We’ll take a look that the previous cases of the inverted yield curve (i.e., negative yield spread) 1. 2000’s Dotcom Bubble The US Federal Reserve increased its interest rate from 4.75% to 6.5% in a brief time, between Jun 1999 to May 2000, which makes short-term yield soar rapidly and inverted yield curve occurred. After the NASDAQ bubble burst, the Fed dropped its rates thirteen times in two years, to save its economy. 2. 2008’s Subprime Crisis The same story happened all over again, the Fed first increased its rates 17 times, from 1% to 5.25%. At that time whole world’s economy reached its peak, there is a 6-7% average GDP growth in emerging markets, and even in advanced countries there is a 2.5% growth (which is a lot, compared with today’s growth in the UK) However soon after the crisis triggered, the Fed dropped its rates from 5.25% to 0.00% in only one-year time and kept its zero-rate environment for almost a decade. From the two lessons above, we can observe a similar pattern. Inverted yield curves consistently occurred near the end of the rate hike cycle, and a substantial economic recession would generally follow. Currently, the US is in the middle of its rate hike cycle, and it seems many of the economic data reveals a sign of overheat. Take the unemployment rate as an example, last month it fell to 3.9%, which is an 18-year low. The performance of new jobs number is in one of the best periods of growths in recent history. Although previous activity doesn’t necessarily predict future outcomes, history suggests once these figures reach their highest possible level, a turning point could be around the corner. There is a saying that lightning never strikes twice, we shall see in this case.
Lanson Chen 在经济学中，10年期和2年期债券收益率之间的差异是帮助投资者观察经济中任何重大变化的主要指标之一。让我们进一步细分。 首先，常识要求如果您想在银行存款，您可以从长期存款中获得的利率将超过短期。 因此，在大多数情况下，长期和短期回报率之间的差距应始终为正。然而，在某些历史时期，在某些极端情况下，有时收益率差异将“平缓”（即，接近于零）或甚至变为负值。如果发生这种情况，短期回报高于长期回报，这被视为经济过热，经济衰退即将到来。 从下图中，我们可以看到当前的收益率差距正趋于零。由于美联储保证在2018年有四次加息，并且在2019年可以预见更多涨幅，这种差价很可能迟早会出现负面影响。 我们将看看之前的反向收益率曲线的情况（即负收益率差价） 1. 2000年的Dotcom Bubble 美国联邦储备委员会在1999年6月至2000年5月的短暂时间内将利率从4.75％上调至6.5％，这使得短期收益率迅速飙升，且收益率曲线反转。 纳斯达克泡沫破裂后，美联储在两年内降低了13倍的利率，以挽救经济。 2. 2008年的次贷危机 同样的事情再次发生，美联储首次将利率从1％上调至5.25％。当时全球经济达到顶峰，新兴市场的GDP平均增长率为6-7％，即使在发达国家也有2.5％的增长率（与英国今天的增长相比，增长幅度很大） 在危机爆发后不久，美联储仅在一年时间内将利率从5.25％下调至0.00％，并保持零利率环境近十年。 从上面的两个课程中，我们可以观察到类似的模式。在加息周期结束时，反向收益率曲线一直发生，通常会出现大幅度的经济衰退。 目前，美国正处于加息周期的中期，似乎许多经济数据显示出过热的迹象。以失业率为例，上个月降至3.9％，这是18年来的最低点。新就业人数的表现是近期历史上最好的增长期之一。 虽然以前的活动并不一定预测未来的结果，但历史表明，一旦这些数字达到最高水平，转折点可能即将来临。有一种说法，闪电永远不会发生两次，我们将在这种情况下看到。 |
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