 Forest fires like this one in the Cleveland National Forest in southern California are transforming the landscape by destroying pine forests and transforming the land into shrubland. 加州南部克利夫兰国家森林的森林火灾正在破坏松林，把土地变成灌木林，从而改变了景观。 The Earth's forests, deserts, landscapes and vital ecosystems risk a 'major transformation' in the next century due to climate change, international scientists warned on Thursday. 国际科学家周四警告说，由于气候变化，地球的森林、沙漠、景观和重要的生态系统在将在下个世纪面临“重大转变”的风险。 Some of these changes are already under way in the southwestern United States, where massive wildfires are destroying pine forests and transforming swaths of territory into shrubland. 其中一些变化已经在美国西南部发生，那里大规模的野火正在摧毁松林，并将大片土地变成灌木丛。 In the next 100-150 years, these changes will likely extend to savannas, deserts, and woodlands, upsetting ecosystems and imperiling plant and animal life, particularly in areas like Europe and the United States, researchers warned in the journal Science. 研究人员在《科学》杂志上警告说，在未来的100到150年里，这些变化可能会扩展到大草原、沙漠和林地，扰乱生态系统，危及动植物生命，尤其是在欧洲和美国这样的地区。 'If we allow climate change to go unchecked, the vegetation of this planet is going to look completely different than it does today, and that means a huge risk to the diversity of the planet,' said co-author Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan. “如果我们任由气候变化不受控制，这个星球的植被将与今天完全不同，这意味着地球的多样性面临巨大的风险，”密歇根大学环境与可持续性学院院长乔纳森·奥弗佩克说。 The report is based on fossil and temperature records from a period that began 21,000 years ago, when the last Ice Age ended and the planet warmed seven to 13 degrees Fahrenheit (4-7 degrees Celsius). 这份报告基于21，000年前的化石和温度记录，当时上一个冰河时代结束，地球变暖了7到13华氏度(4-7摄氏度)。 But experts say their predictions are conservative, since this historical warming, caused by natural variability, took place over a much longer period -- from the Last Glacial Maximum 21,000 years ago until the early Holocene, about 10,000 years ago. 但是专家们说，他们的预测是保守的，因为这种由自然变化引起的历史变暖是在更长的时间内发生的：从21，000年前的最后一次冰期到大约10，000年前的早全新世。 But human-caused climate change is different. The burning of fossil fuels like oil and coal emits heat-trapping gases around the planet. The Earth is currently heating up at much quicker pace. 但是由人类引起的气候变化是不同的。像石油和煤这样的化石燃料的燃烧会在地球上释放出吸热气体。地球正在以更快的速度升温。 'We're talking about the same amount of change in 10-to-20 thousand years that's going to be crammed into a century or two,' said Stephen Jackson, director of the US Geological Survey's Southwest Climate Adaptation Center. 美国地质勘探局西南气候适应中心主任斯蒂芬·杰克逊说：“我们谈论的是10-20万年内同样数量的变化，这些变化是在一个或者两个世纪内迅速发生的。” 'Ecosystems are going to be scrambling to catch up.' “生态系统将争先恐后地变化发展。” - Temperate zones – -温带地区- Researchers described their work as the most comprehensive study to date, based on pollen and plant-fossil records from 594 sites worldwide, dating back to between 21,000 and 14,000 years ago. 研究人员称，他们的工作是迄今为止最全面的研究，依据的是全世界594个地点的花粉和植物化石记录，可追溯到21000至14000年前。 Every continent except Antarctica was included. 除南极洲外，所有大陆都被包括在内。  Pedestrians cross the Aseler Bridge over the partially dried out Edersee lake in Asel-Sued, in central Germany 在德国中部的阿塞尔索斯，行人穿过部分干涸的埃德西湖，跨过阿塞勒大桥。 The most significant changes were seen in the mid-to-high latitudes of North America, Europe and southern South America. 最显著的变化出现在北美、欧洲和南美洲南部的中高纬度地区。 These were regions that had been most covered in glaciers, and which warmed up the most as the climate shifted. 这些地区是冰川覆盖得最多的地方，并随着气候的变化而升温最快。 Researchers calculated that if little is done to contain current emissions, 'the probability of large-scale vegetation change is greater than 60 percent.' 研究人员计算出，如果不采取什么措施来控制目前的排放量，“大规模植被变化的概率将大于60%。” However, if greenhouse gasses are limited to levels targeted in the 2015 Paris Agreement, 'the probability of large-scale vegetation change is less than 45 percent.' 然而，如果温室气体被限制在2015年巴黎协议的目标水平上，“大规模植被变化的概率不到45%”。 Shifting landscapes would affect not only the forests, but drinking water, river flow, and water recreation. 不断变化的地形不仅会影响森林，还会影响饮用水、河流流量和水上娱乐活动。 And the loss of forests could unleash even faster global warming, because important carbon sinks would disappear. 森林的流失可能导致更快的全球变暖，因为帮助吸收二氧化碳的植被消失了。 'A lot of the carbon now locked up by vegetation around the planet could be released to the atmosphere, further amplifying the magnitude of the climate change,' Overpeck said. 奥弗佩克说，“地球周围被植物锁定的许多二氧化碳可能会被释放到大气中，从而进一步放大气候变化的严重性”。 |
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