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西门子日前发布的一份报告指出，互联与自动驾驶车辆（CAV）的出现有可能对全球城市造成重大和颠覆性的冲击。 The advent of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAV) has the potential to cause major and disruptive changes to cities worldwide, a report launched by Siemens indicates. 这份名为《驾驶座位上的城市》的报告强调城市需要及时规划布局，并应对解决更广泛背景下的出行变革问题。 The report “Cities in the Driving Seat” stresses the need for cities to plan early and tackle the issue in a wider context of mobility transformations. 该研究报告在新加坡举行的世界城市峰会上发布，探讨了城市发展、公共交通政策、电力供应、污染以及CAV在城市交通中所占份额的增长等方面相互依存的关系问题。 Launched at the World Cities Summit in Singapore the study explores the interdependencies between urban development, public transportation policies, power supply, pollution and the increasing share of CAV in city traffic. 来自于西门子全球城市能力中心的作者们认为，缺乏中期规划和延迟对基础设施的投资可能会对社会、经济和环境产生负面影响。 Lack of mid-term planning and delayed investments in infrastructure could create negative social, economic and environmental effects, the authors from Siemens’ Global Center of Competence for Cities argue. 西门子全球城市能力中心城市发展和环境总监Pete Daw表示：“自动驾驶车辆必须成为城市地区更广泛变革中的一部分。城市需要确保把人放在首要地位，而不是汽车，否则我们将有可能重蹈覆辙。 “Autonomous vehicles must be part of a wider transformation of urban areas. Cities need to ensure that they work towards putting people first – and not cars, or we risk repeating the mistakes of the past. said Pete Daw, Urban Development and Environment Director, Siemens Global Center of Competence Cities. 采用互联与自动驾驶车辆，将极大地改变我们城市的未来，并在气候变化、空气质量及公共健康等多方面塑造未来趋势。” The future of our cities could look very different with the adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles and they could help shape future trends in climate change, air quality, public health and more,” “驾驶座椅上的城市——城市发展中的互联与自动驾驶车辆”就城市在CAV时代的到来时所面临的机遇和风险提出了深刻的洞见。 “Cities in the Driving Seat – Connected and Autonomous Vehicles in Urban Development” provides insights into opportunities as well as risks for cities faced with the arrival of CAV. 该研究汇总了涵盖气候、健康、可行性、设计和建筑多个领域的行业专家的观点。 The study includes thought-leadership pieces from industry experts covering topics like climate, health, accessibility, design and architecture. 此外，报告还介绍了自动驾驶车辆的主要优势及潜在风险，同时研究了使用自动驾驶车辆的各种场景，研究表明根据使用方式的不同将直接影响结果。 In addition, the report describes the key benefits and potential risks of autonomous ?vehicles. It examines scenarios for adopting autonomous vehicles which illustrate how outcomes could differ significantly depending on how they are adopted. CAV将有潜力带来巨大的变革，其优势包括： The potential for CAV to bring transformative change is huge. The benefits include: 解决“第一与最后一英里”的出行问题，提升公共交通能力； First and last mile trips that will strengthen public transport; 减少噪音、空气污染和温室气体排放； Reduction of noise, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions; 减少道路交通事故伤亡人数；全球每年有125万人因道路交通事故而丧生，其中有90%的事故是人为原因所造成的； Decrease of number of road fatalities and injuries; annually 1.25 million lives are lost around the world due to road collisions, with some 90 percent of these collisions the result of human error; 改善年轻人、老年人、残疾人和边缘化人群的出行； Expanded mobility access to the young, elderly, impaired and marginalized; 将目前用于停车和道路用地转变为绿地、住房、学校以及受保护的自行车道等； Repurposing of land currently used for parking and roadways into green space, housing, schools, protected cycle lanes, etc. 通过车辆与城市基础设施之间的连接和通信，提高行车效率和安全性。 Greater efficiencies and safety through the connection and communication of vehicles with city infrastructure 然而，如果没有明确的和完善的政策和法规，CAV的到来可能会产生一些负面影响，例如： However, without clear and thoughtful policies and regulations the arrival of CAV could result in negative consequences, such as: 如果CAV的排放未被规定为低碳或零碳，将会对气候变化产生持续影响； Continuation of effects of climate change if CAV are not regulated to be low or zero-carbon; 如果个人更倾向于使用自有CAV而非共享交通系统，那么车辆拥有率将不会下降； No decrease in vehicle ownership if individuals prefer their own CAV instead of adopting a shared transport system; 闲置CAV可能造成交通拥堵，并且需要占用不必要的停车位； Unused CAV may cause congestion and require unnecessary parking space; 如果人们将通勤方式从步行、骑自行车或乘坐公共交通转向乘坐CAV，那么车辆行驶里程将会增加。 Increase of vehicle miles traveled if individuals alter their commute from walking, cycling or taking public transport to using CAV. 为了实现自动化和实施CAV的最大效益，报告建议应综合考虑和应用四种交通变革的优势：自动化、电气化、数字连接和共享出行。 To maximize the benefits of automation and of the introduction of CAV, the report recommends harnessing the advance of four transformations in unison: automation, electrification, digital connectivity and shared mobility. 单独采用某一种变革可能会导致不良后果或影响潜在效果。 Adopting mobility transformations in isolation could lead to adverse outcomes or detract from potential benefits. 本次研究定义了三种可能的场景来阐明城市不同的愿景和政策将会带来的不同结果。 The study defines three possible scenarios to illustrate how outcomes could vary depending on the vision and policies that a city puts in place. 理想城市场景假设共享出行方式成为常态，私家车拥有率下降，停车位释放出来并改造成学校、医院和新的住房，大多数车辆为由清洁能源供电的电动车。 The strong city scenario assumes that shared mobility becomes the norm and private car ownership declines, that parking space is unlocked and retrofitted as schools, hospitals, and new housing units and that most vehicles are electric and powered by clean energy grids. “一切如常”场景提供了对未来移动出行的一种展望，即未来出行并没有以一致的愿景或有效的政策为指导。 The business-as-usual scenario?provides an outlook of future mobility that is not guided by a coherent vision or effective policies. 汽车自动化和电气化所假设的革命并没有大规模铺开，私人用车仍然保持常态，几乎没有城市土地得到释放，只有少数CAV 是电动的。 The assumed revolutions in vehicle automation and electrification do not lift off at scale, and private usage remains the norm, little urban land is unlocked and only a minority of CAV are electric. 在“CAV作为奢侈商品”的场景中，CAV 仍然较为稀有，拥有私家汽车为常态，共享汽车和共享出行仍然是一个小众概念，随着时间的推移，公共交通的使用量迅速减少。 In the CAV-as-a-luxury-good scenario CAV remain an exclusive rarity, private car-ownership is the norm, shared vehicles and shared trips remain a niche concept and public transport usage decreases rapidly over time. 汽车推动个人出行，仍然使用内燃发动机，二氧化碳排放量比以往任何时候都多。 Vehicles promote individual trips and still utilize internal combustion engines, causing more CO2 emissions than ever before.
来源 / 经济日报（记者陈颐、朱琳）、综合果壳网 编辑 / 胡达闻 |
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