财务分析的内容评价偿债能力评价营运能力评价盈利能力评价发展趋势比率分析与因素分析一、比率分析法（一）比率分析法的定义（二）比率分析指标（三）标准比率（四）比率分析法的局限二、因素分析法（一）连环替代法（二）差额计算法一、比较分析法1、定义2、常用形式(1)趋势比较：同历史比(2)横向比较：同类企业相比(3)差异比较：与计划比二、比率分析法1、定义2、常用形式(1)相关比率分析：两个或两个以上相关项目比值(2)结构比率分析：部分与总体比值(3)动态比率分析：同一项目不同时期比值①定基比率定基比率=分析期指标/固定基期指标×100%②环比比率环比比率=分析期指标/分析前期指标×100%（一）比率分析法定义比率分析法的定义：将影响财务状况的两个因素联系起来，通过计算比例，反映他们之间的关系，借以评价企业财务状况和经营状况的一种财务分析方法。可用百分率、比率和分数等方法来表示。（二）比率分析指标1、按投资主体或目的划分：1）投资者关注的财务比率2）债权人关注的财务比率3）政府管理者关注的财务比率4）经营者关注的财务比率（二）比率分析指标2、按分析内容划分3、按财务报表划分1）资产负债表比率2）利润表比率3）现金流量表比率4）资产负债表与利润表相结合的比率5）资产负债表与现金流量表相结合的比率6）利润表与现金流量表相结合的比率（三）标准比率（四）比率分析法的局限性1、比率的变动可能仅仅被解释为两个相关因素之间的变动；2、很难综合反映比率与计算它的会计报表的联系；3、比率给人们不保险的最终印象；4、比率不能给人们会计报表关系的综合观点。二、因素分析法（一）因素分析法的定义依据分析指标与其影响因素之间的关系，按照一定的程序和方法，确定各因素对分析指标差异影响程度的技术方法。（二）因素分析法的分类1、定性分析法查明影响的具体原因2、定量分析法1）连环替代法2）差额计算法1、连环替代法是指确定因素影响，并按照一定的替换顺序逐个因素替换，计算出各个因素对综合性经济指标变动程序的一种计算方法。注：当有若干因素对分析指标发生影响作用时，假定其他因素都无变化，顺序确定第一个因素单独变化所产生的影响。1）连环替代法的程序常用形式设k为某经济指标，a,b,c为影响该指标的因素。连环替代法（连锁替代法）注意：因素之间存在因果关系，替代时按顺序且换后不换回连环替代法的程序（1）确定分析指标与其影响因素之间的关系：指标分解。连环替代法的程序（2）确定分析对象，建立指标体系。连环替代法的程序（3～5）以基期指标体系为计算基础，用报告期指标体系中的每一因素的实际数顺序地替代其相应的基期数，计算替代结果。每次替代一个因素，替代后的因素被保留下来。用每次替代所计算的结果与这一因素被替代前的结果进行比较，确定各因素对分析指标的影响程度。检验分析结果。举例说明资料：假定A产品的直接材料费用定额为800，000元，实际为851，400元。有关资料如下：项目产量（件）单耗量（公斤）单价（元）材料费用（元）定额1，000 20 40 800，000 实际1，10018 43 851，400 差异 ＋100－2 +3 +51，400 要求：分别采用连环替代法和差额计算法计算产品产量、材料单耗量和材料单价三项因素对产品直接材料费用超支51400元的影响程度。连环替代法材料费用定额指标：1000×20×40＝800000（元）(1)第一次替代：1100×20×40＝880000（元）(2)第二次替代：1100×18×40＝792000（元）(3)第三次替代（实际）：1100×18×43＝851400（元）(4)(2)-(1)＝880000-800000＝80000(元)产量增加的影响(3)-(2)＝792000-880000＝-88000(元)材料单耗的影响(4)-(3)＝851400-792000＝59400(元)单价提高的影响80000－88000＋59400＝51400（元）各因素综合影响举例说明某企业2005年、2004年有关指标资料如下。财务指标要求：运用连环替代法分析各因素对总资产报酬率的影响程度。指标2005年2004年总资产产值率8082产品销售率9894销售利润率3022总资产报酬率23.5216.96答案练习资料：某企业2007年和2008年有关材料费用、产品产量、材料单耗和材料单价资料如下：指标2007年2008年产品产量（件）100110材料单耗（千克）87材料单价（元）56要求：分析各因素变动对材料费用的影响程度。练习（1）指标分解材料费用＝产量×单位产品材料费用＝产量×材料单耗×材料单价（2）建立指标体系基期材料费用＝基期产量×基期材料单耗×基期材料单价＝100×8×5＝4000（元）实际材料费用＝实际产量×实际材料单耗×实际材料单价＝110×7×6＝4620（元）分析对象＝实际材料费用-基期材料费用＝4620－4000＝620（元）练习（3）连环顺序替代基期指标体系：100×8×5＝4000（元）替代第一因素：110×8×5＝4400（元）替代第二因素：110×7×5＝3850（元）替代第三因素：110×7×6＝4620（元）（4）确定替代结果产量影响：4400－4000＝400（元）材料单耗影响：3850－4400＝－550（元）材料单价影响：4620－3850＝770（元）（5）检验分析结果400＋（－550）＋770＝620（元）连环替代法的关键在于确定替代的顺序（1）应根据指标的经济性质、各个组成因素的内在关系和分析的具体要求而定，一般原则是：先数量指标，后质量指标；先实物指标，后价值指标；先分子指标，后分母指标；同一性质的指标，依据指标间的依存关系。（2）计算结果具有一定的假定性。连环替代法的特点分析前提的假定性因素分解的相关性M1M2M4M3顺序替代的连环性因素替代的顺序2、差额计算法直接利用各因素实际数与基期数的差额作为该因素变动对指标的影响程度，从而省略了第二个步骤。举例说明资料：假定A产品的直接材料费用定额为800，000元，实际为851，400元。有关资料如下：项目产量（件）单耗量（公斤）单价（元）材料费用（元）定额1，000 20 40 800，000 实际1，10018 43 851，400 差异 ＋100－2 +3 +51，400 要求：分别采用连环替代法和差额计算法计算产品产量、材料单耗量和材料单价三项因素对产品直接材料费用超支51400元的影响程度。差额计算法材料费用定额指标：1000×20×40＝800000（元）1）产量增加的影响（1100-1000）×20×40＝80000（元）2）材料单耗的节约的影响1100×（18-20）×40＝-88000（元）3）材料单价提高的影响1100×18×（43-40）＝59400（元）4）全部因素的综合影响80000－88000＋59400＝51400（元）举例说明某企业2005年、2004年有关指标资料如下。财务指标要求：运用连环替代法分析各因素对总资产报酬率的影响程度。指标2005年2004年总资产产值率8082产品销售率9894销售利润率3022总资产报酬率23.5216.96运用差额计算法分析各因素对总资产报酬率的影响程度1、财务综合分析方法财务报表综合分析资产与权益综合分析利润与现金流量综合分析财务指标体系综合分析杜邦财务分析体系杜邦财务指标体系改进分析杜邦财务分析体系是利用几种主要财务指标之间的内在联系综合分析企业财务状况的一种综合财务分析方法。该体系以净资产收益率为主体指标，分别反映营运能力、偿债能力及盈利能力，并按其内在联系有机结合起来，从而形成一个将资产负债表、利润表的数据综合在一起的指标分析体系。一、杜邦分析法1、指标体系：用平均值计算资产报酬率×权益乘数销售净利率×资产周转率1÷1－资产负债率利润额÷销售收入÷资产额÷资产额负债额收入、成本等损益类指标资产、资本等财务状况类指标净资产收益率权益报酬率平均权益乘数1.8838＝1÷（1－负债比率）资产报酬率30.36%销售净利率14.79%×资产周转率2.053净利1260÷销售收入8520销售收入÷资产总额初38008520末4500总收入－总成本9442.98182.9非流动资产初2090末2520流动资产初1710末1980销售成本4190.4销售费用1370财务费用325其他流动资产初61末3管理费用1050货币资金初340末490短期投资初30末80存货初580末690应收及预付款初699末717营业外支出15.5税金1232权益净利率=资产报酬率×权益乘数第一年14.93%=7.39%×2.02第二年12.12%=6%×2.02通过分解可看出，权益净利率的下降不在于资本结构（权益乘数没变），而是资产利用或成本控制发生了问题，造成资产净利率下降。这种分解可在任何层次上进行，如可对资产净利率进一步分解为：资产报酬率=销售净利率×资产周转率第一年7.39%=4.53%×1.6304第二年6%=3%×2通过分解看出，资产的使用效率提高了，但销售净利率下降更厉害，至于原因是售价太低、成本太高还是费用过大，需进一步分解揭示。(2)杜邦分析体系有助于解释变动的趋势，通过与本行业平均指标或同类企业对比。假设D公司是一个同类企业，有关比较数据如下：资产报酬率=销售净利率×资产周转率ABC公司第一年7.39%=4.53%×1.6304第二年6%=3%×2D公司第一年7.39%=4.53%×1.6304第二年6%=5%×1.2两个企业利润水平的变动趋势一样，ABC公司是成本费用上升或售价下跌，而D公司是资产使用效率下降。杜邦分析方法是一种分解财务比率的方法，而不是另外建立新的财务指标，它可以用于各种财务比率的分解。影响权益资本净利率的因素分析(1)销售净利率①增加销售收入②降低成本费用销售收入的增加幅度＞成本费用的增加幅度(2)总资产周转率①增加收入②减少资金占用额③提高各种资产的利用效率(3)权益乘数合理安排资本结构杜邦财务分析的优缺点杜邦财务分析不仅可以揭示出企业各项财务指标间的结构关系，查明各项主要指标变动的影响因素，而且为决策者优化经营理财状况，提高企业经营效益提供了思路。杜邦财务分析只是一种分解财务比率的方法，而不是另外建立新的财务指标；这种分析只能“诊断病因”，不能“治疗病情”。杜邦财务体系的发展---帕利普财务分析体系可持续增长率净资产收益率×（1-股利支付率）销售净利率×总资产周转率×财务杠杆作用流动资产周转率固定资产周转率应收账款周转率应付账款周转率存货周转率营运资金周转率流动比率速动比率现金比率负债对权益比率负债与资本比率负债与资产比率利息保障倍数销售收入成本率销售毛利率销售净利润率销售息税前利润率销售税费率柱形图单位：亿元饼形图WebService&SolutionNetworkIntegration20%10%eBizConsulting15%SIService&Solution55%折线图利润贡献毛益盈利区成本与销售收入固定成本盈亏临界点总成本⊙亏损区变动成本销售量量本利图解分析法02007年度青岛啤酒财务分析报告一、青岛啤酒股份有限公司的基本面分析（一）公司简介（二）宏观经济分析1、国际经济形势分析2、国内经济形势分析（三）行业状况分析（四）啤酒产业发展趋势分析（五）公司在行业中的地位及优劣势分析二、报表及总体评价（一）比较财务报表及共同比财务报表（二）企业财务状况及经营成果的总体评价三、财务比率分析（一）青岛啤酒近三年来的财务总体状况（二）对财务比率的具体分析四、投资建议Sheet3
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图表4
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DescriptiveStatistics
N
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std.Deviation
Skewness
Kurtosis
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净资产报酬率
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libaobeishu
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负债比率
长期负债比率
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固定资长周转率
资产周转率
资产总计
实收股本
组合1
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5000
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流动比率
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logequity
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年份
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年份
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组合2
组合1
财务困境前年份
资产周转率
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
|
|
