|
本文为英国特许保险学会CII'THE JOURNAL'文章。  As the CII publishes a new report on the subject, Arthur White looks at the underwriter of the future in an age of disruption 在CII发布一份有关这一主题的新报告之际，亚瑟·怀特(Arthur White)审视了这个颠覆性时代未来的核保人  Media buzz about change and disruption in insurance usually focuses on insurtech and personal lines, with commercial lines insurance perceived as more traditional and staid. However, important transformation is underway across the commercial insurance world. From the small and microbusiness world, up to the large corporate and wholesale level, change is being fuelled by digital automation, new forms of competition and new forms of risk. 媒体对保险变革和颠覆的关注通常集中在保险科技和个险上，而商业险被认为更传统、更稳定。然而，商业保险领域正在进行重要的变革。从小型和微型商业，到大公司和批发商，数字自动化、新形式的竞争和新形式的风险正在推动变革。 Disruption is already high on the agenda in most boardrooms, with all sectors starting to feel the implications of factors such as increased automation, continuing cost and pricing trends, and the rise of data-driven analysis. 在大多数董事会层面，颠覆性已经成为首要议程，所有行业都开始感受到自动化程度提高、成本和定价趋势持续，以及数据驱动分析兴起等因素的影响。 The capabilities, tools and the skills necessary to build winning business models will change and, although the role of the underwriter will not vanish, it will evolve radically. Simply put, insurers cannot afford to stand still. 构建成功商业模型所需的能力、工具和技能将发生变化，尽管核保人的角色不会消失，但它将发生根本性的变化。简而言之，保险公司不能原地踏步。 In 2012, the CII partnered with global management consultancy Oliver Wyman to publish a report: The Underwriter of the Future: Secrets to Commercial Success. This study painted a picture of what the UK’s commercial insurance market might look like in 2022. 2012年，CII与全球管理咨询公司奥纬咨询(Oliver Wyman)合作发布了一份报告:《未来的核保人:商业成功的秘密》。这项研究描绘了一幅2022年英国商业保险市场的图景。 This year, 2018, passes the halfway milestone of that first study, so our published report The Underwriter of the Future: Understanding Rapid Transformation on the Road to 2027, takes stock of the current market. 2018年是第一项研究的中期里程碑，因此我们发表的报告《未来的核保人:理解直到2027年的快速转型之路》对当前市场进行了评估。 It looks at which predictions played out as expected and where there have been new developments, asking what this means for the insurance executives and underwriters of today. It also takes a cross-country view, looking at trends in the UK and comparing and contrasting these with market experiences in Germany and the US. 它放眼哪些预测符合预期，以及哪些领域出现了新的发展，并问到这对当今的保险高管和核保人意味着什么。它还从跨国视角，观察英国的趋势，并与德国和美国的市场经验进行对比。 STATE OF PLAY IN 2018 竞赛中的2018 In the UK, the SME market has been developing largely as forecasted. There has been notable progress towards direct and online distribution for micro and small risks. At the larger end of SME, person-to-person relationships still predominate but the economics of the traditional branch-based, manually-underwritten model continue to deteriorate. 在英国，中小企业市场的发展与预期基本一致。在直接在线销售小微风险方面取得了显著进展。在规模较大的中小企业方面，人际关系仍占主导地位，但传统的以分支机构为基础、由人工核保的模式日渐式微。 Insurers are using significantly more automated placement and model-based pricing, and broker and insurer platforms (with full end-to-end automated processing of placement) are gaining share. 保险公司正在使用更多的自动配售和基于模型的定价，而经纪公司和保险公司平台(具有完全的端到端自动配售处理)的市场份额正在增加。 All these trends will go further during the next 10 years. Customers will demand more price transparency, faster turnaround times and lower costs – forcing insurers to significantly re-engineer their service proposition and operating model. Outside the UK, similar trends are also beginning to play out in Germany and the US, meaning insurers in these markets will soon also be facing similar tough choices. 所有这些趋势将在未来10年得到进一步发展。客户将要求更高的价格透明度、更快的周转时间和更低的成本——这将迫使保险公司大幅重新设计其服务理念和运营模式。在英国以外，德国和美国也开始出现类似的趋势，这意味着这些市场的保险公司很快也将面临类似的艰难选择。 In the large corporate and wholesale markets worldwide, customer needs have evolved less rapidly than was predicted in 2012. Some corporates are retaining more risks, although fewer than expected. Markets for ‘new economy’ risks, such as supply chain and cyber, have not reached their full potential yet. However, their longer-term impact will be significant, as ‘Industry 4.0’ changes the risks companies face and how they manage them. 在全球大型企业和批发市场，客户需求的发展速度没有2012年预测的那么快。一些公司自留了更多的风险，尽管低于预期。供应链和网络等“新经济”风险的市场尚未充分发挥其潜力。然而，随着“工业4.0”改变了企业面临的风险以及它们如何管理这些风险，它们的长期影响将是巨大的。 Instead, the real pressure in large corporate and wholesale has been on the supply side, with the ongoing abundance of capital continuing to put the traditional industry under major cost and competitive pressure. The traditional broker-insurer-reinsurer value chain is fragmenting, with innovative insurers showing willingness to separate capital provision from risk selection and underwriting. 相反，在大公司和批发市场，真正的压力一直在供应方面，持续不断的充裕资本继续使传统行业面临巨大的成本和竞争压力。传统的经纪-保险-再保险价值链正在分化，创新的保险公司表现出将资本准备金与风险选择和承保分离的意愿。 Likewise, some non-insurer players – such as brokers, MGAs and reinsurers – have been starting to bypass traditional primary insurers to create their own new hybrid models. Traditional insurers have been caught between the pincers of cheap capital and distributor encroachment – catalysing some major consolidation moves, alongside attempts to digitise the traditionally artisanal, decentralised approach to selecting and pricing risk. 同样，一些非保险公司，如经纪商、MGAs和再保险公司，已开始绕过传统的主要保险公司，去创建自己的新混合模式。传统保险公司一直被夹在廉价资本和分销商蚕食的夹缝中，这催生了一些重大整合举措，并试图将传统的手工分散的风险选择和定价方法数字化。 TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS 技术的影响 These changes in the commercial insurance sector will continue to add business and operating-model complexity. Technology in particular will create a barrage of issues as products, customers and channel experiences evolve. 商业保险部门的这些变化将继续增加业务和营运模型的复杂性。特别是随着产品、客户和渠道经验的演变，技术将产生一系列问题。 Established players need to be willing to tackle the major costs and disruption required to create new platforms and propositions. At the same time, they must also undertake the unenviable task of moving away from legacy systems and distribution assets. 成熟的参与者更愿意处理创建新平台和市场定位所需的主要成本和颠覆程度问题。与此同时，它们还必须承担一项不值得羡慕的任务，即远离遗留系统和分销渠道。 The industry will also need to work out how to embrace the productivity and effectiveness unleashed by technology and analytics advancements. The role of the underwriter will need to be significantly enhanced by technology. This could be termed the ‘bionic’ model, combining the best of man and machine. 该行业还需要研究如何利用技术和分析性进步所释放的产能和效率。核保人的作用将需要通过技术大大提高。这可以被称为“仿生”模型，结合了人和机器的优点。 In short, we see the future as an inseparable blend of digital technology and human capabilities. In SME, efficiency, automation and e-trading will be a prerequisite. 简而言之，我们认为未来是数字技术和人类能力不可分割的融合。在中小企业中，效率、自动化和电子交易将是先决条件。 Fortunately, it will become much simpler to acquire these capabilities through microservice-enabled software-as-a-service solutions and API-based services. These already exist today in banking and such solutions are currently being introduced in retail insurance by players like IBA or Guidewire. 幸运的是，通过支持微服务的软件即服务解决方案和基于api的服务获得这些功能将变得简单得多。这些解决方案目前已经存在于银行业，IBA或Guidewire等保险公司目前正将其引入零售保险领域。 However, it is not enough to simply acquire capabilities. Many insurers have so far taken an incremental approach to implementing digital via a series of point solutions. This raises the very real danger that they will end up with a ‘spaghetti architecture’, which will be the next decade’s legacy IT problem. 然而，仅仅获得能力是不够的。到目前为止，许多保险公司都采取了一种渐进的方式，通过一系列点式解决方案来实现数字化。这就带来了一种非常真实的危险，即他们最终会得到一个“意大利面式架构”，这将是下一个十年遗留的IT问题。 Firms therefore also need to design their new bionic architecture today. This will require agile experimentation and a very different capability from digitisation and automation. Much more in-house agile coding will also become essential. 因此，今天的公司也需要设计新的仿生架构。这将需要敏捷的实验，以及与数字化和自动化截然不同的能力。更多的内部敏捷编码也将变得至关重要。 In the large corporate world, there will be some similar moves. Some changes will be required and will not necessarily be easy, such as moving away from labour-intensive manual data collection, cleansing and analysis to ‘one-click portfolio transparency’. 在大公司世界里，也会有类似的举动。一些变化将是必要的，而且不一定是容易的，例如从劳动密集型的手工数据收集、清理和分析转向“一键式资产包透明度”。 REMAINING COMPETITIVE 保持竞争力 In short, CEOs of established insurers and brokers face many harsh choices during the next few years. Worst case, if they do not find new ways to compete, they risk being burdened with declining volumes and high trapped costs – and with their competitive advantage slowly but steadily eroded. 简而言之，老牌保险公司和经纪公司的首席执行官们在未来几年将面临许多艰难的选择。最糟糕的情况是，如果它们不能找到新的竞争方式，它们将面临业务量不断下降和成本居高不下的风险，同时它们的竞争优势将缓慢但稳步地被侵蚀。 There are also major implications for individual underwriters and for underwriting leaders. We see far less traditional, case-based underwriting in regional offices for SMEs – but more automated, portfolio-underwritten business that may open up opportunities for those willing and able to fit into teams combining sophisticated analytical, data engineering, technological and entrepreneurial skills. 这也对个体核保人和牵头核保人产生了重大影响。我们看到，面向中小企业的地区办事处不再采用传统的以个案为基础的逐单承销方式，而是采用自动化程度更高的组合承销业务，这可能会为那些愿意并能够融入具有复杂分析、数据工程、技术和创业技能的团队的人提供机会。 In the large corporate world, there will still be demand for those able to understand, select and price complex risks – but with much more technological and analytical sophistication. There will also be significant pressure to reduce the cost and complexity of today’s fragmented and artisanal process flows. 在大企业世界，仍对那些能够理解、选择和为复杂风险定价的人有需求，但他们的技术和分析水平要高很多才行。在降低当今分散的手工流程的成本和复杂性方面，也将面临巨大压力。 Underwriting leadership will need to work out how to source the capabilities needed, whether and how to upskill existing staff; and how to make their departments an attractive place for new kinds of talent. They will need to help underwriters be more creative and openminded in their ways of assessing, pricing and limiting risk for clients. 领先的核保人将需要弄清楚如何获得所需的能力，是否以及如何提高现有员工的技能；以及如何使他们的部门成为吸引新型人才的地方。它们需要帮助核保人在评估、定价和限制客户风险的方式上更具创造性和开放性。 FUTURE 未来 By 2027, the best underwriting teams will be a heady mixture of statisticians, engineers and technology developers. 到2027年，最好的核保团队将由统计学家、工程师和技术开发人员组成。 Individual underwriters will need to adapt their skills and outlook to this radically changing world. Some may choose to see this as a threat – and it is true that some traditional underwriting roles will disappear, or at least shrink in numbers. But there will be also significant opportunities for those willing to be entrepreneurial, to learn new skills and to embrace change. 个体核保人将需要调整自己的技能和观念，以适应这个急剧变化的时代。一些人可能会选择将其视为一种威胁——确实，一些传统的核保角色将消失，或至少数量将减少。但对于那些愿意创业、学习新技能并接受变革的人来说，也将有重大机遇。 |
|
|
