股息投资的三个制胜秘诀

卓智汇见

大多数投资者都愿意在投资组合中持有股息配置，因为这部分配置能够给他们带来真正的现金流。然而股息收益型股票在市场波动时期尤具吸引力，不仅是因为它们能够提供持续稳定的现金派息，更加是因为高派息通常意味着公司的经营更加稳健。因此，股息增长型股票有助于提高投资组合的安全性和稳定性，尤其在当前的晚周期环境下。

在最新一期的《市场月报》中，从事股票研究逾18年的摩根大通私人银行投资组合经理Jack Caffrey先生与摩根大通私人银行投资策略师Jake Manoukian先生共同探讨了股息和股息增长向市场传递的信息，分析投资者在构建股息投资组合配置时应重点考虑的因素，以及阐释市场中目前存在的机会和风险。

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概要

股息反映了公司的健康状况以及管理层如何看待公司与投资者的关系。

有时候仅有很高的绝对股息收益率是不够的。事实上，股息增长更能够反映企业经营的健康状况。

目前我们尤其看好科技行业的发展趋势，不论是云端计算的兴起还是从4G到5G的演进。

为了抵御市场因缺乏流动性而加剧波动的风险，投资者可投资于一些能够提供持续稳定的股息现金流的公司。

股息向市场传递了哪些信息?

我们认为股息向投资者传递了三个重要信息。首先，这说明公司报告的盈利是真实的。股息是公司每个季度或每年回馈给投资者的真金白银，很难造假。其次，我们认为股息能够迫使管理层做出更加明智的决策。一旦管理层承诺派息，就必须更加谨慎地对待公司的资产投资。最后，我们认为股息是一个真实的合作信号，反映了管理层真正将投资者视为公司的合作伙伴。因此，随着公司价值的增长，管理层应与投资者共同分享财富的增值，而不是仅仅将他们视为资本的提供者。

换言之，股息是反映公司业务、财报、以及与市场的关系健康与否的「晴雨表」。

如何构建投资组合中的股息配置?

在构建投资组合中的股息配置时，我们认为投资者应重点考虑三个方面。首先是力求实现超越市场水平的投资组合收益率，这有助于稳定投资组合的日常表现。

其次，投资者还应考虑股息增长对股价长期升值的推动作用。假设投资者的股息现金流按照7-10%的速度增长，我们可以合理预测公司股价亦有望实现同等水平的涨幅。

最后，投资者应积极寻找市场中被低估的机会。随着公司的业务和现金流逐渐被市场了解和认可，其股价将有望获得重估并为投资者带来回报。

股息增长更具参考价值

相对于股息而言，我们更加看重公司的股息增长，因为有时候仅有很高的绝对股息收益率是不够的。股息增长更能够反映企业经营的健康状况。

从真正长期的视角来看，对于长达数十年的投资而言—不论是教育基金、退休基金还是慈善基金，股票投资者最终获得的是公司的盈利，或者说是公司从不断增长的盈利中派发的股息。因此在做出投资决策之前，投资者应重点考察公司业务的稳定性和重要性。

科技是市场的灵魂

目前我们尤其看好科技行业的发展趋势。不论是云端计算的兴起还是从4G到5G的演进，都为我们提供了大量极具吸引力的投资机会。科技板块以往曾出现过许多高速增长的企业，如今科技板块已日趋成熟，逐渐成为市场中最大的现金回报来源之一。我们认为这进一步加大了科技板块的投资吸引力。

科技板块目前在标准普尔500指数总市值中所占的比重约达21%，是市场中最大、最重要的板块。如果不看好科技板块，整个市场就失去了最大的投资价值和吸引力。

股息是投资组合的「压舱石」

延续至今的美股史上最长牛市在很大程度上受益于过去八年来持续高涨的乐观情绪。当市场流动性开始减少，投资者决定离场时，市场或许将再次遭遇像去年12月那样的波动。在此背景下，一些投资者已开始思考自己投资组合的风险承受能力是否适宜，以及自己的投资组合布局在当前的晚周期环境下是否合理。

为了抵御市场因缺乏流动性而加剧波动的风险，我们建议投资者可投资于一些能够提供持续稳定的股息现金流的公司。这种安全、稳定的现金流有助于减轻投资者在市场波动时期的焦虑感。

如欲了解如何根据上述观点构建您的投资组合，请联系您的摩根大通顾问。

Ideas & Insights

What you want to know about dividends

When investors think about dividends as part of their portfolio, most feel positively because they are delivering cash flow. But there is more to dividends than this. Dividend stocks can be attractive in times of uncertainty because of the consistent cash payout, and the belief that companies which have committed to paying dividends are more prudently managed. 

In the April edition of our Markets Monthly, Mr. Jake Manoukian, Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, and Mr. Jack Caffrey, Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, discuss what dividends and dividend growth really tell you about the health of a company, what to focus on when constructing a portfolio with dividend stocks, and what is making them excited and worried right now in the market.

To watch the video interview, please click “Read More”.

Highlights

Dividends are a sign of the health of a company and a signal about how they view their investors in the company.

Sometimes it’s not enough just to have a high absolute dividend yield. Really, the growing dividend seems to be more indicative about the underlying health of the business.

What we find really exciting right now is what’s going on in the technology industry, whether it’s the rise of cloud computing or the evolution from fourth generation to fifth generation wireless.

A way an investor can deal with the risk of heightened volatility due to lack of liquidity is investing in those companies with that consistent cash flow stream that a dividend provides.

What do dividends signify?

We think dividends can offer three important signals to an investor. The first is that the earnings the company is reporting are real, because it’s really hard to fake a check that you have to write to your investors every quarter or every year. Second, we think dividends can force management to make better decisions. Once you’ve made the commitment to pay a dividend, you have to be more careful in how you invest the company’s assets. Lastly, we think dividends are a real sign that management views its investors as their partners in the business. As the business becomes more valuable, they should share that growing wealth with their investors as a partner rather than just as a capital provider.

Therefore, we see dividends as a sign of the health of a company and a signal about how they view their investors in the company. More specifically, they are an indicator of the health of the business, the health of the reporting, and the health of the relationship ultimately with the markets.

How to include dividend stocks into your portfolio?

There are three important things you need to focus on when constructing a portfolio with dividend stocks. The first is trying to have a portfolio yield above that of the market. That would provide some stability to your portfolio on a day-to-day basis.

The second is looking to dividend growth as a driver of capital appreciation over time. If, say, your cash flow from a company’s dividend payments is growing at 7%-10%, we think it’s reasonable to think that the share price of that company could be rising in line with that cash flow returned to you.

Lastly, we think that you can try to look for situations which might be seen as underestimated or underappreciated in the market. You might end up being rewarded for better understanding and appreciating the business and the cash flows they might get from it.

Why does dividend growth matter?

We like the concept of dividend growth because sometimes it’s not enough just to have a high absolute dividend yield. The growing dividend seems to be more indicative of the underlying health of the business.

If you take a truly longer-term perspective with a multi-decade horizon for investment, whether it is intended to fund a college, a retirement or a charitable cause, ultimately what you have got from your investment is the earnings, or more specifically, the dividends being paid out of the growing earnings stream. So it’s really important to think about the stability and, ultimately, the relevance of the businesses you look to invest in.

If you don’t like tech, you don't like the market

What we find really exciting right now is the technology industry. There are so many interesting things going on in the tech space, whether it’s the rise of cloud computing or the evolution from fourth generation to fifth generation wireless. The tech sector has historically given rise to a number of high-growth businesses and is now getting more mature and becoming one of the largest cash returners in the market. We think that makes it even more compelling from an investor’s perspective.

Tech companies now represent about 21% of the market value of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. When you think about the market, the largest and most important sector is technology. So if you don’t like the 20% of the market, it is hard to like the whole.

A ballast in times of volatility

We are still in the longest bull market in history, which has been largely supported by no one wanting to take the other side for the last eight years. December was just a taste of what happens when people decide to be selling during a time with less liquidity in the market. This has left some investors wondering what is the right risk tolerance in their portfolios, and whether they’re positioned themselves accordingly for a later-cycle environment.

Investing in companies that offer consistent cash flow of dividends can be a way for investors to effectively safeguard returns in times of heightened volatility resulting from a lack of liquidity. And knowing you’re going to get some money every three or six months can help you sleep a little better at night. 

For ideas on how to incorporate these views appropriately into your portfolio, we invite you to contact your J.P. Morgan advisor.

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