【DKV】预制模块化数据中心：从广告宣传到实际交付

Prefabricated modular datacenters:

from hype to delivery

预制模块化数据中心：从广告宣传到实际交付

Publication date: Wednesday, August29 2018

发表日期：2018年8月29日星期三

In one sense, things have gone quiet in the prefabricated modular (PFM) datacenter infrastructure market. There is less debate about definitions and market demand. In another sense, activity has never been greater, with discussions now focused on detailed competitive comparisons about engineering skills, flexibility of vendors, the suitability of configurations and the industrialization capabilities of vendors to deliver.

一方面，预制模块化（PFM）数据中心基础设施市场波澜不惊，对产品定义和市场需求不再有太多争议。另一方面，市场动作越来越大，目前的争论集中在以下细分的竞争比较方面：工程技术、厂商灵活性、配置的适应性和厂商交付的产业化能力等。

This is happening because shipments are taking off and the sector is enjoying strong demand–the focus is on practicalities. Why now? The various advertised benefits of prefabrication (that PFM is inherently superior in that it is a faster and more reliable process for building mission-critical facility systems) have not changed. But a growing body of datacenter operators, small or hyperscale, are finding the compressed build project timelines and better risk management highly appealing. At the same time, PFM datacenter offerings from numerous vendors have also matured and proven themselves in production over several years.

这一切的发生源自出货量快速增长，围绕实用性，行业迎来强劲的需求。为什么是现在呢？有关预制成效（预制模块化PFM与生俱来的先进性，是建造关键任务型设施系统更快速可靠的工艺）的各种广告宣传从未改变。或大或小，越来越多的数据中心运营方，都在寻求缩短项目建造周期的途径，对如何提高风险管理也越来越感兴趣。同时，大量预制模块数据中心厂商日渐成熟，在过去几年内的也用产量证明了自己。

All this has been underscored by agenerally strong global economy and favorable currency moves in 2017. Despite geopolitical turmoil, this gives 451 Research confidence in the continued expansion of the PFM datacenter systems market. We predict an acceleration of growth for 2019 and 2020, when many projects, the foundations of which were laid in 2017 and 2018, will come to fruition.

这要归功于全球经济走强和2017年有利的汇率变动。尽管动荡的地缘政治依然存在，451 Research 依然对预制模块数据中心市场的持续扩张充满信心。我们预计2019和2020年会加速增长，届时2017和2018年前期夯实的基础工作将迎来回报期。

The 451 Take

451观点

The PFM datacenter systems market has overcome its initial stumbling blocks. The industrialized methodology for building datacenter infrastructure has taken root at numerous sizeable operators; it is not a question of 'why do prefabrication?' but 'how to do it best.' Over the coming years, we expect growing (and even widespread) adoption of the PFM method due to competitive pressure to build more datacenters faster, which traditional on-site construction alone will struggle to fully match. Pressure will mount with the trend toward having a more dispersed datacenter infrastructure closer to businesses and consumers, the various forms of which are generally known as 'the edge.' Datacenter construction will see more prefabrication of critical subsystems.

预制模块化数据中心市场已经跨越了起步时的重重障碍。建造数据中心基础设施的产业方法论已经植根于各大运营方；现在的问题不再是“为什么要预制化”，而是“怎样才能做到最好”。在未来几年，我们预计预制模块化方法会有更快速增长（甚至广泛采用），原因在于建设数据中心面临更快速度的竞争压力，而传统的现场建设方法依然会因全面满足需求而得以维持延用。建设靠近业务和消费者更分散的数据中心设施，这种趋势带来的压力将依然存在，形式上就是各种“边缘数据中心”。建设数据中心将采用越来越多预制的关键子系统。

State of the PFM datacenter market

预制模块化数据中心市场现状

The market for industrialized datacenter facility infrastructure continued to mature in 2017 and into the first half of 2018. In 2016, we had already seen signals of wider acceptance of PFM systems across virtually all segments of datacenter operators. However, there were some strong headwinds: Long project cycles; a strong dollar, which muted IT investments; depressed commodity prices (oil & gas and mining businesses traditionally have been strong buyers of some PFM datacenter types); and macro-economic woes all meant that the health of the overall PFM datacenter market did not reflect the underlying shift underway.

数据中心基础设施产业市场在2017和2018年上半年更趋于成熟。在2016年，我们已经看到了越来越多数据中心运营商接受预制模块化数据中心系统的信号。不过当时仍然面临一些障碍：较长的项目周期，强势美元降低了IT投资，疲软的大宗商品价格（原油、天然气和矿业都是传统预制模块化数据中心的主要买家）以及宏观经济的低迷，预制模块化数据中心市场整体的健康发展，并未反映出这一深远转变悄然进行。

These signals have now become stronger, and the 'PFM vs. classic on-site construction' debate has largely moved on. One of the significant changes of 2017 and 2018, compared with previous years, is that a considerable number of mid-tier and large operators have now decided to adopt PFM systems, at least partially, for their new developments (where siting allows for it). At the same time, the economic environment has improved.

现在信号越来越明晰，虽然预制模块化和传统的现场建造的争议仍在继续。与前几年相比，在2017-2018年有一个明显变化，有相当数量的中等和大规模运营方已经决定采用预制模块化系统，至少在新项目（条件允许下）部分采用。同时，经济环境也已经改善。

These positives helped the market for PFM datacenter systems in 2017 (including not just complete facilities, but any prefabricated infrastructure components sold separately, such as cooling and power modules) to grow by 17% over 2016 and surpass $2.6bn, according to factory revenue data compiled by 451 Research. Even though the very first products had entered the market in the early 2000s and become popular for industrial and military operations, it wasn't until the turn of this decade that PFM systems started to gain serious currency with operators.

这些积极的因素帮助预制模块化数据中心市场2017年相比2016年增加了17%，（不仅包括全套设施，还有各类可单独销售的预制设施如制冷和供电模块），451 Research 的数据显示厂商销售营收超过了26亿美元。2000年后首批次产品已经进入市场，并在业内和军方开始流行，直到近10年，预制模块化系统才开始在运营方盛行。

451 Research has previously explored the various benefits of prefabrication over classical construction approaches. These include better quality controls, repeatable results and overall improvements to project management – all of which reduce risks. These are the result of shifting complex electrical and mechanical tasks from the construction site to a highly controlled and more productive factory environment. Another major factor that will stimulate demand for more PFM datacenter systems is the speed and scale at which midsize to large datacenter operators require standardized capacity in a growing number of locations.

451 Research 此前就预制相对传统建造方式的各种优势进行了调研，包括更高的质量控制、可重复的结果和项目管理的全方位改进，几方面都降低了风险。这都是把复杂的机电工程内容从建设现场转移到工厂中的成效，在工厂中有更严格的管控的同时生产效率也更高。另一个刺激对预制模块化系统需求的重要因素是速度与规模，中等和大型数据中心运营商在越来越多地点需要标准的交付能力。

Operators use PFM datacenter systems in a variety of ways, and although some trends have taken shape in recent years, such as the growing use of PFM electrical subsystems at multi-megawatt sites, the landscape remains diverse, with no single approach dominating. This is because, at its core, it is not about specific engineering choices per se – the choice of approach depends on a wide range of factors, such as the business case (where does the datacenter operation add value?), technical requirements, siting conditions, geographical location, organizational ability to manage change, etc.

运营商通过各种方式使用预制模块化数据中心系统，有些趋势近年来渐渐清晰，例如在兆瓦级项目场地中越来越多采用预制模块化电力子系统，情形各异并没有哪项突出占优。这是因为其核心，本质上不是具体的工程选项，可选方式依赖多种因素如成功的商业案例（哪里可以为数据中心运营方带来增值？）、技术需求、现场情况、地理选址，组织应对变化的能力等等。

Outlook

展望

Underpinned by the ongoing global buildup of datacenter capacity, 451 Research maintains a generally positive outlook for PFM datacenter systems. Benefits are available even if the operator modularizes just parts of the datacenter facility – be it the electrical room, the mechanical plant or the data hall.

有全球数据中心建设能力不断提供做支撑，451 Research 对预制模块化数据中心系统维持乐观的展望，即便是数据中心运营方在部分设施如在配电室、设备间或是机房区域，使用模块化系统的成效同样可观。

Vendors report not only growing bookings, but also the need to add manufacturing capacity to match demand going into 2019 and beyond. With this shift, the profile of the PFM market is moving away from one that was dominated by containerized and container-like installations and one-off projects, and toward one of repeat installations of datacenter subsystems and turnkey facilities at scalable campuses.

来自厂商的报告不仅反映了预订数量的增长，还有为满足2019年及之后产能扩充的需求。随着这一转变，预制模块化市场也从主要由集装箱、类似集装箱式安装和一次性项目的方式发生转变，转为在可扩展的园区内，数据中心子系统可重复安装和设施交钥匙建设的方式。

In its updated view, 451 Research currently forecasts the market for PFM datacenter infrastructure products to approach $4.4bn by 2021, up from $2.2bn in 2016 – this represents a five-year CAGR of 14.4%. Most of this growth will come from scalable datacenter facilities (what many would consider as mainstream) serving a wide range of workloads, as opposed to containerized and custom enclosures that are typically deployed toward specific tasks.

根据451 Research 最新的观点，估计预制模块化数据中心产品市场到2021年将从2016年的22亿美元增长到44亿美元，5年间的复合增长率CAGR达到14.4%。增长的大部分来自可扩展的数据中心设施方面（很多人同意这部分会成为今后主流）将承载更多业务负载，而集装箱式和客户定制方式将用于特定用途。

The PFM datacenter systems market remains highly fragmented, with dominant centers of gravity yet to emerge. While 451 Research expects revenue to become concentrated in the hands of a relatively few vendors over time, today the market remains largely open and competitive – even though this will likely change soon as the market matures and positions solidify. 451 Research tracks over 60 suppliers of PFM datacenter systems worldwide.

预制模块化数据中心市场仍然是非常分散的，尚未有占突出优势厂商出现。451 Research预期未来销售额会越来越集中在少数几家厂商手中，今天的市场仍然是相当开放和有竞争性的，尽管这一切将随着市场的成熟和实力的稳固而发生变化。451 Research长期跟进全球60多家预制模块化数据中心厂商的动态。

Although not specifically revealed in the numbers, 451 Research continues to predict that true fine grained modularity and build-to-fit configurations, as opposed to monolithic and homogenous capacity chunks, will be a new frontier for innovation in order to help drive down facility costs and performance optimization into the next decade. We now also expect stronger densification of IT systems in the pursuit of more performance (as the use of energy by silicon escalates), which will make the cost of prefabricated datahalls more attractive – a smaller footprint means less expensive high-grade steel.

虽然没有公布具体的数字，451 Research 继续预测细粒度模块化和为适用而建的配置将成为今后十年的创新前沿，将会降低设施成本和优化性能，而不是单一和同质模块的堆叠。我们期待支持追求更高的性能的更高密度IT系统（半导体消耗的能源不断提升），这将让预制数据中心的成本更加有吸引力，更小的空间占用意味着消耗更少价格不菲的构件材料。

Other than external economic and geopolitical shocks to IT investments, the biggest threat we see to PFM datacenter vendors is the possibility that large and hyperscale operators will take PFM design and supply chain matters into their own hands (e.g., commissioning their own designs, signing contract manufacturers, setting up assembly sites, or acquiring engineering and PFM manufacturing capacity). Nonetheless, the industrialization of large core sites (typically multi-tenant, IT service provider and hyperscale) will continue in the coming years, we believe, and that is where the bulk of the growth will be coming from.

与外部经济和地缘政治冲突对IT投资影响不同，我们认为对预制模块化数据中心厂商的最大威胁是大型IDC运营商和云厂商也许会把预制模块化的设计和供应链后向一体化（如调试自己的设计，与供应商签合同，建组装线，或者收购工程项目和预制模块化产能）。不过，大型核心项目的建设（典型的多租户，IT服务提供商和云厂商）将在未来几年中持续，我们相信这才是大部分增长的来源。

For a more detailed discussion of the data and PFM vendors, please see our study, Global Prefabricated Modular Datacenter Forecast 2017-2021: Picking Up Speed. The full report includes more detailed market-sizing and forecast breakdowns for different PFM datacenter form factors and geographies, as well as recommendations to suppliers and buyers of PFM datacenter infrastructure.

如需了解有关数据和预制模块化厂商更详细的讨论内容，请参阅我们的调研报告《全球预制化数据中心展望2017-2021：加速前进》。完整的报告包括更详细的市场容量和不同预制模块化数据中心因素和地理布局的细分类，也同时涵盖推荐的供应商和预制模块化数据中心设施的买家信息。

翻译：

高昆

世纪互联 DC产品中心华南区经理

DKV(DeepKnowledge Volunteer)计划创始成员

编辑：

李擎

北京欣盛云路科技有限公司 高级运营经理

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