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澳大利亚统计局(Australian Bureau of Statistics)公布的2019年5月贷给家庭和企业的贷款数据显示，不包括“再贷款”的房贷数量继续下降，但速度有所放缓。 尽管首次购房者需求猛增，考虑到当前宏观经济环境，房屋贷款数量下滑并不令人意外。在5月份联邦选举之前房价持续下行，虽然速度比前几个月有所放缓，但是房地产市场仍然存在很多不确定性。借款人的需求未增加，符合市场规律。 澳大利亚统计局5月份公布的数据显示，首次购房者的贷款数量增长了近20%，尽管该数据同比下降了7%，但新数据表明，首次购房者对市场的信心正在提高。 5月份数据统计表明，共有46,600笔面向自住业主的住房贷款获得批准，不包括“再贷款”数据，同比下降0.1%，降幅为12.4%。 要点回顾： ·澳大利亚统计局最近公布的2019年5月家庭和企业贷款数据显示，不包括“再贷款”在内的住房贷款数量继续下降，但速度有所放缓。 ·澳大利亚统计局的数据显示，5月份，首次购房者的贷款数量增加了近20%，而数据显示，5月份同比下降了7%。 ·澳大利亚统计局数据显示房地产市场似乎已看到曙光，其它指标也表明房地产市场调整正在趋于稳定。 澳大利亚房地产协会(REIA)主席阿德里安·凯利(Adrian Kelly)表示:“2019年5月的总体数据显示，不包括再融资在内的住房代款获准数量下降了0.5%。这是连续第21个月下降，也是自2012年8月以来的最低水平。” 今年5月，不包括“再贷款”在内的住房投资总成交价下降了1.5%，环比下降27.8%，达到2009年3j月以来的最低水平。 “首次购房者的贷款数量增加了0.8%,是2018年11月以来的最高水平。5月份首次购房贷款占总住房贷款从18.2%上升到18.8%,”凯利说。 “虽然房贷获批的总数可能持续温和减少，我们要清楚联邦选举在本月举行，结果存在相当大的不确定性。房地产税收变化可能会对政府有较大影响。” 凯利补充称，随着大选后购房者对房地产市场信心的增强(咨询增多就是明证)，加上5月份两次降息和调整APRA的要求，极有可能标志着贷款周期以处于底部。 “自2017年达到最高点后，住房贷款需求和全国住宅价值面临许多不利因素，但联邦选举的结果，以及澳大利亚统计局最新数据发布以来的两次降息，标志着房地产市场即将再次迎来曙光。” Housing finance figures show cautious optimism, Mortgage Choice The May 2019 Lending to Households and Business figures show the number of loans for housing, excluding refinancing, continues to decline at a slower rate, despite first home buyer demand spiking.
此文章出于 <The Economy, July 12 2019> The recently released May 2019 Lending to Households and Business figures by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the number of loans for housing, excluding refinancing, continues to decline, but at a slower rate. “This decline in home loan demand is unsurprising when you consider the broader context of the macro environment at the time,' said Mortgage Choice Chief Executive Officer, Susan Mitchell. 'Leading up to May, there was still a lot of uncertainty in the market in the lead up to the federal election, and property prices continued on their downward trend, albeit at a slower pace than in preceding months. With this in mind, I would not have expected to see an increase in demand from borrowers.' Ms Mitchell added, “Pleasingly, the ABS data revealed that the number of loans to first home buyers increased almost 20% over the month of May, and while the data showed there was a 7% decline year on year, the new data suggests that sentiment amongst first home buyers is improving.' According to the ABS, 46,600 home loans to owner-occupiers were approved throughout the month of May – a reduction of 0.1% excluding refinance and a reduction of 12.4% year on year. At a glance: The recently released May 2019 Lending to Households and Business figures by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the number of loans for housing, excluding refinancing, continues to decline, but at a slower rate. The ABS data revealed that the number of loans to first home buyers increased almost 20% over the month of May, and while the data showed there was a 7% decline year on year. Ms Mitchell, said that looking ahead, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel for the property market as the ABS data supports other indicators that the housing market correction is stabilising. “Overall the figures for May 2019 show, in trend terms, that the number of owner-occupied finance commitments, excluding refinancing, decreased by 0.5 per cent – the twenty-first consecutive month of decreases and the lowest since August 2012,” Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) President Adrian Kelly said. “The value of investment housing commitments, excluding refinancing, decreased by 1.5 per cent in May. This is down 27.8 per cent from a year ago and is at its lowest level since March 2009. “The number of loans to first home buyers increased by 0.8 per cent and is the highest since November 2018 whilst the proportion of first home buyers, as part of the total owner-occupied housing finance commitments increased in May to 18.8 per cent from 18.2 per cent in April,' he said. “Whilst the total number of finance commitments for May show a continuing, but modest, decline it needs to be remembered that the federal election was held in the middle of the month with considerable uncertainty regarding the outcome and concern about changes to property taxation and its impact should there be a change in government.' Mr Kelly added that with the post-election boost in confidence in the real estate market as evidenced by higher levels of enquiry, two cuts in interest rates and changes in APRA’s requirements in May will most likely mark the bottom of the lending cycle. Ms Mitchell, concluded, “Looking ahead, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel for the property market as the ABS data supports other indicators that the housing market correction is stabilising. 'Home loan demand and national dwelling values have faced many headwinds since peaking in late 2017 but the outcome of the federal election and two subsequent rate cuts since this latest issue of data from the ABS could help paint a different picture for the property market going forward.”
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