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多年来我们的观影方式真的发生了很大的变化。当Apple TV上线的时候，我甚至能清晰回忆起靠着沙发看旧影碟的时光。作为消费者，我们主动或被动地接受媒体界的转变，却从没有机会了解对方的处境。希望这篇文章能串连起天平的两端，带你们稍稍窥见娱乐业的过去和未来。👇 娱乐业的未来——归权于民 作者：Los Angeles 译者：邬璐雪 校对：王禹琦 推荐：不 锁 策划：邬璐雪 & 刘小康 The future of entertainmentMedia giants are battling for viewers’ attention. There will be blood.媒体巨头们的夺“观”之战将是一场硬仗。 In Hollywood lingo, Disney+ launched hot. On blitz day, as Disney called the eve of its television-streaming service’s debut on November 12th, a massive marketing campaign reached a climax. Buses in its theme parks were wrapped in ads, employees in Disney shops wore QR codes for people to sign up with smartphones and ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” trailed the excitement to come. By the end of the first day, 10m people had signed up—beyond Disney’s highest expectations, it said. Its servers struggled to cope. The company rushed to fix the glitches, as viewers devoured “The Mandalorian”, a specially made live-action “Star Wars” spin-off.用好莱坞的话说，“Disney+”称得上是一炮而红。在11月11日的“闪电战日”——迪士尼流媒体服务正式上线的前夕，公司的市场营销活动达到了顶峰。迪士尼乐园里的巴士贴满了广告，商店员工的衣服上都印着二维码供人们扫描注册，紧随其后的还有美国广播公司（ABC）的“与星共舞”真人秀为之捧场助兴。Disney+上线一天后，平台的注册人数就达到了1000万人，超出迪士尼的最高预期。因大量观众狂刷《曼达洛人》（《星球大战》的特制衍生剧），迪士尼不得不赶着修复服务器故障。For $6.99 a month—slightly less than the cost of a cinema ticket—viewers in America, Canada and the Netherlands can now tap the world’s most valuable entertainment catalogue. As well as new original content, they can watch anything from “Snow White” to “Avengers: Endgame” and, thanks to Disney’s $71bn acquisition this year of 21st Century Fox, all 662 episodes of “The Simpsons” (America’s favourite cartoon family was also enlisted in the ad blitz). Behind the scenes, a new recommendation algorithm hoovered up enough user data in a few hours to start sending millions of personalised viewing suggestions, says Kevin Mayer, who runs Disney’s international and direct-to-consumer businesses, including Disney+.6.99美元一个月，美国、加拿大和新西兰的观众现在只需用略低于一张电影票的价钱，就能在世界最宝贵的片库中任意挑选。这个片库不仅包括新的原创内容，也涵盖了从《白雪公主》到《复仇者联盟4：终局之战》的所有影片。此外，在今年迪士尼斥资710亿美元收购了21世纪福克斯公司后，节目单中还增加了662集完整版的《辛普森一家》（这个最受美国人喜爱的卡通家族同样加入了闪电战营销活动）。负责Disney+项目以及直接面向消费者业务的凯文·迈耶表示，在后台，公司能利用新型推荐算法在几个小时内获取足量用户数据，并推送数百万条个性化建议。Going into on-demand streaming is an epochal shift for the 96-year-old company. Like its Hollywood rivals, it has built an empire on controlling access to films and tv shows, which were released in dribs and drabs—on cinema screens, broadcast networks and cable channels. That model, the entertainment industry has concluded, is no longer viable in the internet age. In October AT&T, which owns WarnerMedia, the former Time Warner, unveiled HBO Max. The new service will give viewers full online access to HBO programming, as well as to other valuable content including the libraries of Warner Bros, New Line Cinema and Japan’s Studio Ghibli, plus new original shows. NBCUniversal will parry with Peacock, a mainly ad-supported streaming platform also expected next year. Smaller services such as CBS All Access and Showtime have already piled in. On November 1st Apple, a tech giant with entertainment aspirations, launched Apple TV+, its own streaming service with several star-studded original shows.对于96岁高龄的迪士尼来说，进军流媒体是一个划时代的转变。如同他的竞争对手好莱坞，迪士尼的帝国也建立在控制影视剧的观看权上，这些影视资源通过电影院、广播网络和有线电视的方式逐步得到发布。但业内断定，此类模式在网络时代已经行不通了。坐拥华纳媒体（原名“时代华纳”）的美国电话电报公司（AT&T）在10月公布了它的流媒体平台“HBO Max”。这个新平台能给观众提供的不仅有HBO的全部剧集，还包括华纳兄弟、新线影业和日本吉卜力工作室的影片库及一些原创剧。NBC环球也将在明年推出广告支持的流媒体平台“孔雀（Peacock）”。除了这些行业巨头外，较小规模的服务商，比如哥伦比亚广播公司旗下的CBS全频道（CBS All Access）和美国娱乐时间电视网（Showtime），也都加入了战局。作为渴望跻身娱乐行业的科技巨头，苹果公司也在11月1日推出了流媒体平台“Apple TV+”，并上线了几部群星云集的原创剧目。 “We are surprised it took them all so long,” quips Ted Sarandos, chief content officer of Netflix, which began the streaming revolution in 2007. But now they are here. It is, in the words of Brian Roberts, chief executive of Comcast, a cable behemoth which owns NBCUniversal, “an important moment, as many parties across broad industries have entered the competition for content creation”. “我们其实很惊讶他们花了这么长时间才真正走到这一步，” 网飞公司（Netflix）的首席内容官泰德·萨兰多斯调侃道，毕竟网飞在2007年就掀起了流媒体革命。但现在已然是群雄并起。正如拥有NBC环球的有线电视巨头康卡斯特（Comcast）的首席执行官布莱恩·罗伯茨所说：“这是一个重要的时刻，许多跨行业阵营都已经加入到了内容创作战当中。”That competition should benefit consumers, who can expect a surfeit of high-quality fare. For media companies and their shareholders, it will be brutal. Billions of dollars will get torched. Some endings will be happier than others.博弈之下，涌现出的大量优质内容必然使消费者受益。但对传媒公司与股东而言，这将是场恶战。数以亿计的资金将付之一炬，结局也将是几家欢喜几家愁。The entertainment business’s original script was simple. People paid for cinema tickets (and later video rentals) to watch films, and advertisers paid networks for access to viewers of their TV shows. That began to change in the 1990s. Hit series like “The Sopranos” and “Sex and the City” on HBO, a cable channel then owned by Time Warner, proved that people would pay extra for compelling television. But HBO still relied on “sequential” releases of weekly episodes. It was also a wholesale proposition, sold in a bundle of pay-TV channels. “The big bang”, says Barry Diller, chairman of IAC, who in 1986 founded Fox Broadcasting as a rival to the three incumbent free-to-air networks, ABC, CBS and NBC, came in the mid-2000s with Netflix and, soon after, Amazon Prime Video, the e-commerce giant’s streaming service.娱乐行业最初的模式其实很简单。观众购买电影票（后来还有租赁影碟）来观影，广告商付费给广播电视植入广告。但在90年代，情况发生了变化。虽然当时时代华纳公司旗下的有线电视频道HBO主打的仍然是“按顺序”放送周播剧的模式，但《黑道家族》和《欲望都市》的热播也的确证明了观众愿意为好剧额外付费。把热播剧打包出售给多家付费电视频道，更像是个批发生意。IAC公司（全称InterActiveCorp，一家美国互联网公司）的董事长巴里·迪勒曾在1986年创立了福克斯广播（Fox Broadcasting），这家公司后来与美国广播公司（ABC）、哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）和美国全国广播公司（NBC）这三家免费收视广播公司四分天下。他说，“大爆炸”始于2006年左右，当时网飞的流媒体服务横空出世，随后电商巨头亚马逊推出Amazon Prime Video，希望从中分得一杯羹。”The industry’s initial response to the challengers was to pawn its crown jewels. Netflix paid hundreds of millions of dollars for rights to stream beloved sitcoms like “Friends” or “The Office”. HBO struck deals with Amazon to supply it with programming such as “Six Feet Under”. This allowed the streaming upstarts to rack up subscribers and splurge on more content. In time, they began producing their own programmes, notably in 2013 with “House of Cards”. Netflix released the entire first season of its political drama at once, ushering in the age of “binge-watching”.面对挑战者，娱乐业最初做出的回应是随意变卖自家的宝库。网飞公司花费数亿美元购买了《老友记》和《办公室》等观众钟爱的情景喜剧的播放权；HBO和亚马逊签订协议为之提供《六尺之下》等节目。这些手段使得流媒体新贵们得以快速积累用户并继续为收购内容一掷千金。他们找准时机开始制作原创剧，而其中最著名的当属2013年的政治剧《纸牌屋》。在制作完《纸牌屋》后，网飞一次性发布了第一季的所有剧集，从而引领了“刷剧”时代。Meanwhile, the rest of the business was being reshaped in other ways. Many media groups were folded into vertically integrated conglomerates that controlled both the production and distribution of content. In 2013 Comcast completed its purchase of nbcUniversal. In 2015 AT&T, a telecoms company, bought DirecTV, a satellite firm, and in 2018 paid $85bn for Time Warner, owner of HBO and the Warner Bros studio. Disney eschewed vertical integration but expanded horizontally. Its megadeal with 21st Century Fox was the fourth for its boss, Bob Iger, who had earlier snapped up Pixar (an animation studio), Lucasfilm (maker of “Star Wars”), and Marvel Entertainment, home of Marvel Comics.与此同时，行业的其他方面也正在被重塑。不少传媒集团被纵向整合成一体化的企业集团，以同时把控内容的生产和分销。2013年，康卡斯特公司完成了对NBC环球的收购；2015年，AT&T收购了卫星电视公司DirecTV，并在2018年以850亿美元的价格收购了坐拥HBO和华纳兄弟工作室的时代华纳。迪士尼则放弃了纵向整合转而进行横向扩张。对迪士尼的老板鲍勃·伊格尔而言，这次与21世纪福克斯（21st Century Fox）的巨额交易已是第四笔收购，而此前他就已将皮克斯动画工作室（Pixar）、《星球大战》的制作方卢卡斯影业（Lucasfilm）以及持有漫威漫画的漫威娱乐（Marvel Comics）收入囊中。This flurry of consolidation created a handful of giant content owners, with massive back catalogues and a willingness to spend heavily on old shows and new programming (see chart 1). In October HBO Max reportedly agreed to pay over $500m for the American rights to air 23 old series and three new ones of “South Park”, a satirical cartoon owned by Viacom. It was one of the biggest on-demand-licensing deals of all time. The same rights went for $192m four years ago. As one media executive puts it, with more than a hint of admiration, “AT&T is not screwing around.” Since 2010 just three groups—WarnerMedia, Disney and Netflix—have ploughed a total of $250bn into programming (see chart 2).
这阵合并热潮创造出了几个内容巨头。他们坐拥海量片库并且愿意在新旧节目上掷以重金（见图1）。据报道，今年10月HBO Max同意为全26季《南方公园》（维亚康姆旗下的讽刺动画，其中新系列占3季）的美国播放权花费5亿美元。这是有史以来最大额度的影视点播权交易之一，四年前同样的授权只卖出了1.92亿美元。正如一位媒体高管所说，“AT&T不是在闹着玩，”艳羡之情溢于言表。自2010年起，仅华纳媒体、迪士尼和网飞三家公司就已经在影视剧上投入了2500亿美元（见图2）。
图1
图2 As content-related costs have surged, the lucrative old business model has receded. Netflix has made viewers less willing to pay over the odds for a big bundle of pay-TV channels, which generated margins of around 50% and accounted for as much as three-quarters of profits at media conglomerates like Time Warner, Disney, Viacom or News Corporation. Streaming as a stand-alone business either loses money or at best, breaks even. Netflix books accounting profits but has yet to turn free cashflow positive (though it expects to soon). It has accumulated $12bn of long-term debt despite making no acquisitions. Media firms moving into streaming have “swapped a quarter for a nickel and paid $5 for the privilege,” sums up one executive.随着内容的相关支出激增，旧商业模式原本丰厚的利润已经萎缩。网飞的转变使得观众为大批付费电视频道消费的意愿降低。付费电视给网飞提供的利润率约为50%，并为时代华纳、迪士尼、维亚康姆和新闻集团等媒体企业贡献了约3/4的利润。但现阶段，流媒体作为一个独立业务，要么在亏损，要么充其量盈亏持平。网飞虽然录得了会计利润，但尚未将自由现金流回正（尽管预计指日可待）；虽未进行任何收购，但已欠下120亿美元的长期债务。一名高管曾总结道，那些向流媒体转型的传媒公司是在“用25美分换5美分，为了特权又再付上5美元。” There are three ways to make streaming pay. Firms can accumulate deep ranks of loyal subscribers at home and abroad. They can raise prices. Or they can spend less on programming.有三种方式可以从流媒体服务上获得回报：第一，在海内外同时积累大量忠实用户；第二，提价；第三，削减节目成本。Winning over millions of subscribers is getting harder. Once consumers have paid for broadband and for a simple bundle of news and sports, it takes only three or four streaming services at current prices before the bill adds up to not much less than what they coughed up for old pay-TV. Companies are jumping into streaming in a peak-attention economy, notes Tim Mulligan of MIDiA Research. Consumers have no more spare leisure time for new tv apps. Reed Hastings, boss of Netflix, has named “Fortnite”, a hit video game, and sleep as his main competition.要争取到百万以上的用户已经变得越来越困难。如果消费者已经为宽带和一些新闻、体育节目付费，那么按照现价只要再订阅三到四个流媒体服务，账单就将赶上付费电视。虽然米迪亚咨询公司的蒂姆·穆利根曾表示，现阶段正是各大公司争相转向流媒体的焦点经济时期，消费者们却没有多余的时间留给新的电视软件。网飞公司的老板里德·哈斯廷斯说过，《堡垒之夜》（热门游戏）和睡眠才是他的主要竞争对手。In practice, his and others’ streaming services will probably have to claw viewers away from each other. Even then, customers may not stay. Switching costs are low. People might sign up for Disney+ to see “The Mandalorian”, leave and then come back a year later for a new Marvel film.事实上，网飞和其他流媒体服务可能都不得不互相争夺观众。可即便如此，观众也不见得会留下。因为换台的成本太低了，观众可能会为了《曼达洛人》注册Disney+，看完后就转身离开，直到一年后再为新的漫威电影回归平台。If building an enormous subscriber base looks hard, what about raising prices? Netflix did so in the spring, when its standard plan went up by $2. There is chatter that Disney may need to raise its price for Disney+ sooner rather than later. But that risks driving subscribers into rivals’ arms.如果建立庞大的用户群看上去很困难，那么提升价格呢？今年春天网飞公司就把标准订阅套餐提高了2美元。也有说法认为，Disney+可能应该尽早提价。但这总有把自家用户推向竞争对手的风险。Again, Netflix serves as a cautionary tale. In the third quarter it added just 500,000 American subscribers, 300,000 fewer than expected. Earlier this year it saw their number decline for the first time in 12 years. And that was before Disney, Apple and others entered the fray. Globally, Netflix now expects to add 26.7m subscribers this year, down from 28.6m in 2018; 90% of its subscriber growth comes from abroad, where it is potentially more expensive to win viewers because of the need to tailor content for each market.于是网飞又一次成为了前车之鉴。今年第三季度，网飞的美国用户只增加了大约50万人，比预期少了整整30万。年初的时候，他们已经目睹了用户数量12年来的首次下降，而彼时迪士尼、苹果和其他对手尚未入局。从全球范围来看，网飞预计本年用户将新增2670万人，低于2018年的2860万，并且有90%的新用户来自海外。但由于每个市场的内容需要量体裁衣，赢得海外用户的成本自然也要高得多。That leaves spending on programming as the last lever on profits. This, says Mr Roberts of Comcast, will need to be pulled back somewhat over time. There is no sign of that yet. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, a research firm, the average cost of producing a single episode of a scripted drama is close to $6m, twice the going rate of three to four years ago. This year 16 firms, from Disney to Quibi, a short-form mobile-video platform, will spend a total of $100bn on content, according to UBS, a bank. That is roughly equal to the sum invested in America’s oil industry this year.这么看来，削减节目成本就成了撬动盈利最后的杠杆。康卡斯特公司的罗伯茨曾说，随着时间的推移，这笔开支会有所回落。但截至目前，这句话还没有应验。据调查公司彭博行业研究称，一集电视剧的平均制作成本接近600万美元，即便按现行汇率计算也是三四年前的两倍。而瑞士联合银行的数据则表明，从迪士尼到移动短视频平台Quibi，今年16家公司在内容上的投资共计将达1000亿美元。这几乎是美国石油产业今年的总投资额。Disney expects its streaming service to break even by 2024, once it reaches 60m-90m subscribers. The plan is for two-thirds of these to come from overseas. Some on Wall Street worry that the firm could lose money on Disney+ for years to come. Streaming may encourage a faster rate of “cord-cutting”, as people cancel pricey pay-TV subscriptions, cannibalising the company’s mainstay cable profits.迪士尼预计其流媒体服务平台将在2024年前积累6000万-9000万的用户量以实现盈亏平衡。并且在他们的计划里，其中2/3的用户会来自海外。但部分华尔街人士却担心该公司会在Disney+上亏损多年。流媒体可能促使观众更快地“切断电缆”，即取消昂贵的付费电视订阅业务，对迪士尼赖以为生的有线电视盈利形成冲击。Mr Iger has as good as admitted that Disney is betting the farm. But, as he explained in his recently published autobiography, it has little choice. Its rivals appear to share the sentiment. AT&T expects to invest $2bn in year one of HBO Max and to earn no revenue at the start. Over time, the hope is, investment will go down and revenue will rise; the service is also expected to break even in five years.伊戈尔基本上承认了迪士尼是在孤注一掷。但正如他在新出版的自传里解释的那样，迪士尼几乎别无选择。在这一点上，它的竞争对手似乎也有同感。AT&T预计会在HBO Max上线的第一年投入20亿美元，并做好了一开始不盈利的打算。它希望随着时间的推移，该服务能够慢慢实现投入下降和收益上升，并在第五年达到收支平衡。Still, a shake-out looks inevitable. There is much uncertainty about who will be left standing. The prevailing view in the industry is that Netflix will be hard to dislodge. It has amassed 158m global subscribers and created a brand that appeals to all ages and tastes. Its recent purchase of rights to “Seinfeld” will help make up for the loss of “Friends” and “The Office”, two of its most popular shows which AT&T and Comcast, respectively, plan to pull from Netflix. It has 47,000 TV episodes and 4,000 films in its American catalogue, according to Ampere Analysis, a research firm. That is far more than the 7,500 episodes and 500 films that Disney+ will offer in its first year. It will spend $15bn or so this year on original content. Mr Sarandos says there are no plans to adjust Netflix’s strategy in response to all the new competition.尽管如此，大洗牌似乎不可避免，谁能笑到最后也难有定数。业界普遍认为网飞的地位难以撼动。毕竟网飞已经积累了1.58亿全球用户，并创造了一个老少皆宜口味不忌的品牌。其最近购买的《宋飞正传》将弥补两部全民热剧《老友记》和《办公室》分别被AT&T和康卡斯特挖走所带来的亏空。根据安培分析公司提供的数据，网飞的美国片库中有47000部电视剧和4000部电影，远超Disney+第一年将提供的7500部剧和500部电影。除此之外，网飞今年还将为原创内容投入约150亿美元。萨兰多斯称，网飞并没有对所有新的竞争形势都作出战略调整的计划。Disney, with its must-see shows and profits that are the envy of the industry, is also here to stay. So in all likelihood is HBO Max, which can tap its parent company’s 170m customer relationships. 'We could not do this without AT&T,' says Bob Greenblatt, chairman of WarnerMedia Entertainment, who oversees the group’s direct-to-consumer business. “There is no way that we could so easily reach tens of millions of people on our own.” As with Comcast, whose Peacock service should find a nest in the new media landscape, entertainment is becoming an important source of revenue for AT&T. The phone giant will also use HBO Max to acquire and retain wireless customers. Smaller content players such as Discovery and Sony Entertainment will have to identify niches. CBS and Viacom (which are merging) are planning an arms-dealer strategy—of supplying content to anyone who wants to buy it. 而迪士尼，怀抱着其令业界羡慕的必看节目和利润，也将在业内屹立不倒。同样稳如泰山的还有能从母公司引流到1.7亿用户的HBO Max。“如果没有AT&T，我们做不成这件事，”华纳媒体娱乐公司的董事长、直面消费者业务总监鲍勃·格林布拉特说，“单靠我们自己绝不可能轻易吸纳数千万的用户。”和康卡斯特一样（预期“孔雀”业务能在新媒体格局中占据一席之地），娱乐业正在成为AT&T的重要收入来源。这家电信巨头也将利用HBO Max招徕和维系无线客户。不同于这些大公司，探索频道（Discovery）和索尼娱乐（Sony Entertainment）等小型内容生产商则必须在战局中明确自己的市场定位。而另一边的哥伦比亚广播公司和维亚康姆（合并中）则在计划一项“军火商式战略”——向任何有意者兜售内容。Over time, firms that can aggregate the various streaming services in bundles with simple interfaces will reap rewards. Consumers are overwhelmed by the volume of content coming their way. They are increasingly fed up with having to search for shows on various platforms. Internet service providers such as Comcast and Verizon can help curate this video onslaught. Comcast’s Xfinity Flex, a new service for broadband-only customers, for example, offers a seamless way to use more than 100 video and music services. A voice-controlled TV remote can search for, say, “the episode in ‘Seinfeld’ where George claims to be a marine biologist”.随着时间的推移，那些能用简单的界面汇总大量流媒体服务的公司将获得回报。琳琅满目的内容将使消费者应接不暇。他们越来越厌烦在各种不同的平台搜索节目。而像康卡斯特和威讯（Verizon）这样的网络服务供应商将解决这个问题。比如康卡斯特的Xfinity Flex流媒体盒，这款专为宽带用户提供的新服务，就可以实现百余个影像和音乐服务平台间的无缝转换。观众可以利用语音遥控来进行搜索，比如说一句“转到《宋飞正传》里乔治声称自己是海洋生物学家的那一集。”Then there are the technology giants. For them, producing entertainment is not an end in itself, says Matthew Ball, former head of strategy at Amazon Studios (and an occasional contributor to The Economist). In Amazon’s case, TV is a way to retain Prime subscribers and sell more shoes and loo roll. For Apple it is about selling hardware and expanding its range of services.科技巨头顺势进入了战局。偶尔也为《经济学人》撰稿的亚马逊工作室前策略主管马修·鲍尔曾说过，对他们来说，生产娱乐内容并不是最终目的。就亚马逊而言，电视不过是留住Prime用户并卖出更多鞋和卫生纸的途径而已。而苹果公司的目的，则是出售硬件并扩大业务范围。Many media executives, particularly the veterans among them, worry about what this means for the future of high-quality content. In their view, much of the film and TV business is now run by clueless outsiders. They cite Apple’s “Stories to Believe in”, as its first TV shows were mawkishly trailed, as evidence of naivety. “The Morning Show”, a drama about working in television starring Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon, got mixed reviews. “The show, and the service, don’t need to exist,” concluded Rolling Stone magazine. Despite kudos for backing critically acclaimed shows like “Fleabag” and “The Marvelous Mrs Maisel”, Amazon’s longer record in TV draws similarly tepid reviews. “Apple doesn’t know what the fuck they are doing and Amazon knows less,” concludes a former film-studio bigwig.很多媒体高管，尤其是其中的资深人士，认为高质量内容的前景堪忧。在他们看来，很多影视业务现在正由一些一无所知的外行人打理。由此他们援引了苹果第一批颇为煽情的预告片《值得相信的事》（Stories to Believe in）来证明其幼稚得可笑。而另一部由詹妮弗·安妮丝顿和瑞茜·威瑟斯彭主演、讲述电视台工作的原创剧《早间新闻》（The Morning Show），得到的评价则褒贬不一。“这部剧和这个服务平台，都没必要存在，”《滚石》杂志评论道。尽管因投拍《伦敦生活》（Fleabag）和《了不起的麦瑟尔夫人》（The Marvelous Mrs Maisel）等备受好评的剧集而获誉，亚马逊在电视方面的整体历程招致了同样惨淡的评论。一名前电影制片厂大亨总结道：“苹果压根就不知道自己在干什么，亚马逊更是如此”。Top management at AT&T wants HBO to produce a lot more programming. In practice, that could include less rarefied fare that might appeal to America’s heartland, not just its coastal elites. HBO’s unabashedly elitist old-timers are not keen on the new strategy. The decision by John Stankey, head of the telecom firm’s entertainment unit, to ramp up production prompted a raft of departures, including that of Richard Plepler, HBO’s head, who gave the green light to “Game of Thrones”. “Stankey wants HBO to compete with Netflix,” says Rick Rosen, a founder of the Endeavour Agency. But many people worry that there is a big risk of HBO’s brand losing its distinctiveness. “After 20 more years of doing it,” jokes one streaming boss, “John Stankey will be a great creative executive.”AT&T的高层想让HBO制作更多节目。但事实上，这包括了那些能迎合观众但不那么深入人心的节目。它们需要吸引美国中心地带的人群，而非仅仅是沿海的精英。HBO那些以精英主义自居的老前辈并不热衷于这种新战略。AT&T的娱乐业务负责人约翰·斯坦基提高产量的决定一经做出就引起了许多人的离职，其中包括HBO的负责人，曾为《权力的游戏》开过绿灯的理查德·普莱普尔。“斯坦基想让HBO和网飞竞争”，奋进经纪公司（Endeavour Agency）的创始人之一里克·罗森表示。但很多人担心这样做HBO有很大风险会丧失品牌特色。“可能再干个20年，约翰·斯坦基才能学会如何成为一名优秀的创意总监吧” ，一名流媒体主管调侃道。It would nevertheless be a mistake to conclude that outsiders will never get things right. Jeff Bewkes, former chief executive of Time Warner, once dismissed Netflix as “the Albanian Army”. Now Hollywood considers the company a legitimate film studio. It is also easy to overstate the role of senior executives at media firms’ parent companies. Much of the creativity in Hollywood comes from lower down, from outside big firms and from informal networks of writers and stars, some with their own production companies, including Ms Witherspoon and Michael B. Jordan.然而断定外行人永远做不好却是个错误。时代华纳的前首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯曾贬低网飞像“阿尔巴尼亚军队”一样外行，但如今就连好莱坞都不得不承认它已是电影制片的正规军。另外，传媒公司母公司中那些高管的作用也总是很容易被夸大。好莱坞的创造力有很多源于底层、外部大公司，以及作者与明星之间的非官方合作。其中有一些人还拥有自己的制作公司，比如威瑟斯彭和迈克尔·B·乔丹。Tinseltown has a way of absorbing outsiders. Media executives point out that Apple and Amazon are already adapting. At first they put tech types in charge of their TV operations but later installed seasoned film folk with strong links to the creative world. On November 12th it was reported that Mr Plepler is in talks with Apple about an exclusive production agreement. Like many a moneyman seduced over the years, Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s boss, seems star-struck. He goes to all the awards ceremonies, including the Golden Globes—above and beyond what even movie-studio bosses feel obliged to, remarks a former studio executive.好莱坞总有办法吸引外来者。传媒高管们指出，苹果和亚马逊正在适应这里的规则。起初，他们让技术人员负责影视运营，后来则将与创意界紧密联系的电影老炮安插其中。11月12日，有报道称HBO前总裁普勒（Richard Plepler）正与苹果就独家制片协议进行洽谈。像这些年慕名而来的众多金融家一样，亚马逊的老板杰夫·贝索斯似乎是个追星族。一位前制片厂高管透露，贝索斯热衷于参加各路颁奖典礼，甚至连制片人不必去的金球奖也照去不误。As long as money keeps flowing, creativity should flourish. So far, shareholders appear happy to let it flow. Netflix’s share price has fallen from its peak in mid-2018 but the company remains highly rated relative to earnings. Disney shares have risen by 28% since the company revealed the details of Disney+ to investors in April. AT&T and Comcast are also up this year.只要资金源源不断，创意就会喷涌而出。到目前为止，股东们都很乐意让资金流动起来。虽然网飞的股价在2018年年中已经从峰值开始下跌，但公司的收益排名仍居高不下。今年4月迪士尼向投资者们透露了Disney+的细节以后，它的股价上升了28%。AT&T和康卡斯特的股价今年也都有所上涨。Even before the taps are tightened—as they inevitably will be—the streaming wars have reshaped media well beyond video entertainment. The shift from linear schedules to fragmented, on-demand consumption makes it harder for any one company to exert a big influence on people’s viewing, says Bob Bakish, chief executive of Viacom. Every company needs to adapt accordingly, he adds. It is also weakening the link between entertainment and television news. That is most visible in Rupert Murdoch’s decision to sell much of 21st Century Fox to Disney, a deal which closed in March. He continues to control News Corp, containing newspapers, and Fox Corporation, a broadcaster that owns Fox News and other assets.甚至在资源不可避免地紧缩之前，流媒体之战对媒体的重塑也已经远远超出了视频娱乐的范畴。维亚康姆的首席执行官鲍勃·巴克表示，从线性的节目单到碎片式的点播消费，这个转变使得任何一个公司都更难对人们的观影产生重大影响。而后他又补充说，每个公司都需要做出相应调整。除此之外，娱乐和电视新闻之间的联系也被削弱了。最明显的例子就是鲁伯特·默多克决定将21世纪福克斯的大部分股份出售给迪士尼，这项交易于今年3月完成。而他自己继续把控新闻集团（报纸）和福克斯广播公司（拥有福克斯新闻频道和其他资产）。Silicon Valley, season twoThe wild card hanging over the industry is what the tech giants will do next. Some people think Apple could cut its spending on entertainment or even exit the business. It is seen as more unpredictable than Amazon, which seems committed to making and showing content. Yet the overriding view in Hollywood is that, with their untold piles of cash and their valuations of $1trn or so apiece, the tech giants are only just getting started. They could easily swallow a media firm or two.科技巨头下一步的动作则是那张高悬在业内的未知牌。有人认为苹果应该减少它在娱乐业上的开支，甚至退出这个市场，因为它的未来比致力于内容制作与呈现的亚马逊更不可预料。但是好莱坞的主流观点是，凭借巨额现金和每家公司1万亿美元左右的估值，科技巨头的娱乐产业之路才刚刚开始。它们甚至可以轻易吞并掉一两家媒体公司。Trustbusters may stymie any such move by Alphabet, Google’s parent, which already owns YouTube. Amazon might find it hard in practice given scrutiny of its rapid expansion (and Jeff Bezos’s ownership of the Washington Post). Apple might have an easier time. When Mr Bewkes was looking to sell Time Warner a few years ago, talks were held with Apple as well as AT&T. There has been much chatter about Mr Iger’s comment in his autobiography that, if Steve Jobs were still alive, Disney and Apple would have combined (Disney, for its part, nearly bought Twitter in 2016).反垄断机构可能会阻止谷歌母公司Alphabet的任何类似举动，毕竟它已坐拥Youtube。亚马逊的迅速扩张（加上杰夫·贝佐斯对《华盛顿邮报》的所有权）引来严密审查，增加了实操的难度。相比之下苹果可能更轻松一些。几年前，当贝克思尝试出售时代华纳时，他曾与苹果和AT&T都进行过谈判。伊戈尔在自传中宣称，如果史蒂夫·乔布斯还活着，迪士尼和苹果可能早已合并（迪士尼本身差点在2016年买下推特），此番言论引发了热议。For all Mr Sarandos’s fighting talk, even Netflix could be a target if the streaming wars affect its growth and the firm’s finances come under pressure. As dizzying as the pace of change has been in media in the past few years, it is unlikely to let up. 尽管萨兰多斯多番立下战斗宣言，但如果流媒体之战导致公司财务紧张、发展受阻的话，网飞成为众矢之的也并非无稽之谈。在过去的几年内，媒体变革的步伐令人眼花缭乱，而未来却也少有放缓的可能。对68岁的Iger来说，“Disney+”的失败决不是他想看到的结果，他计划在2021年底辞去自己的职务。他的遗产，以及迪士尼的未来，都有赖于“Disney+”。但当Iger准备好进入一个未知的世界，他有信心自己会到达理想的目的地。他说：“世上只有一个迪士尼。”https://www./archives/459899 从美国文娱IP看大娱乐产业的投资价值 随着流媒体纷纷开始转型制作原创内容，美国流媒体巨头开始撬动好莱坞电影、电视工业的架构。……未来的行业增长可能来自多元化服务，因为他们利用垂直商业机会授权品牌产品和服务，包装旅游和现场音乐的消费者体验，将音乐服务与其他在线内容服务捆绑在一起等等。流媒体服务将继续增长，并为消费者提供更多个性化服务。消费者比以往任何时候都更有能力影响数字娱乐产业。http://www.sohu.com/a/258527288_814389
流媒体平台HBO Max与吉卜力达成独家合作
据The Verge消息，华纳旗下流媒体平台HBO Max获得了日本吉卜力工作室所有动画电影的美国线上播放权，《千与千寻》、《龙猫》和《哈尔的移动城堡》等21部经典作品将于2020年正式上线。这是吉卜力首次授权许可旗下电影登陆北美流媒体平台。
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