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hello大家好，我是达达。昨天我查了一下自己银行卡的存款，突然有点小惊喜~~~其实一毕业，我就开始把收入分成好几份，一份存起来，一份日常花销，一份学习和自我投资。很多人不理解，觉得我们为什么要存款？赚多少花多少，好好享受生活不是挺好的吗？那你有为自己的以后的生活做过打算吗？你现在不养成存款的习惯，整天大手大脚花销，以后的日子会很难熬！听听Shlomo Benartzi博士怎么说吧，存款真的很重要，现在不存就晚了！每天都要存款是一件重要的事 来自TED英语演说优选 00:00 18:03 I'm going to talk today about saving more, but not today, tomorrow. I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow. It's a program that Richard Thaler from the University of Chicago and I devised maybe 15 years ago. 今天我要谈一谈存钱，但不是今天开始存钱，而是明天存钱。我将要谈的是：明天存更多的钱。这是芝加哥大学的理查德·泰勒和我在15年前设计的一个项目。The program, in a sense, is an example of behavioral finance on steroids -- how we could really use behavioral finance. Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance? 在某种意义上这个项目是广义的行为金融学，我们怎样才能真正地利用行为金融学。现在也许你会问什么是行为金融学？So let's think about how we manage our money. Let's start with mortgages. It's kind of a recent topic, at least in the U.S. A lot of people buy the biggest house they can afford, and actually slightly bigger than that. 那让我们考虑一下我们是如何管理我们的钱的，让我们从贷款开始。这个话题很新，至少在美国很新，很多人买的房子都是他们能支付得起的最大的房子。而且实际上，比那种还要再大一些。And then they foreclose. And then they blame the banks for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.之后，他们的财产被银行收走了。然后他们就开始责备银行， 因为银行不好，给了他们贷款。Let's also think about how we manage risks -- for example, investing in the stock market. Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago, markets did well. We were risk takers, of course. Then market stocks seize and we're like, 让我们也来想一下我们如何管理风险：比如说，投资股票市场。两年或三年，甚至是四年以前，股市很好，当然，当时我们也是风险承担者。之后股市开始缩水而我们就开始感叹，'Wow. These losses, they feel, emotionally, they feel very different from what we actually thought about it when markets were going up.' So we're probably not doing a great job when it comes to risk taking.从情感上而言，他们会觉得这些损失与我们实际的想象中市场会回升的时间有很大差距 ，涉及风险的时候，我们做的也许不是很好。How many of you have iPhones? Anyone? Wonderful. I would bet many more of you insure your iPhone --you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty. What if you lose your iPhone? What if you do this? How many of you have kids? Anyone? 你们中多少人有iPhone？有人吗？太好了。我打赌你们中许多人都给你们的iPhone上了保险，延长保修期也是一种隐性的保险。如果你的iPhone丢了怎么办？如果发生了其他事情怎么办？你们当中多少人有孩子? 多少人？Keep your hands up if you have sufficient life insurance.I see a lot of hands coming down. I would predict, if you're a representative sample, that many more of youinsure your iPhones than your lives, even when you have kids. We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.如果你有足够的人寿保险请继续举着手不要放下，我看到很多手放下去了。我预计说，如果你是一个代表性样本，那么你们给iPhone上的保险比你们的寿险还要多，有了孩子也是一样。每当谈及保险的时候，我们做的都不够好。The average American household spends 1,000 dollars a year on lotteries. And I know it sounds crazy. How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries? No one. 美国一般家庭每年花费1000美元在乐透彩上。我知道这听起来很疯狂。在座各位有多人每年花1000美元在乐透彩上？没有人。So that tells us that the people not in this room are spending more than a thousand to get the average to a thousand. Low-income people spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries. So where does it take us? We're not doing a great job managing money.这就告诉了我们，没在这间屋子里面的人每年花在乐透彩上的钱超过了1000美元，这才能让平均值保持在1000美元。低收入人群花在乐透彩上的钱远远超出了1000美元，那么这会如何影响我们呢？我们并不是很擅长于管理钱。Behavioral finance is really a combination of psychology and economics, trying to understand the money mistakes people make. And I can keep standing here for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left and make fun of all sorts of ways we manage money, and at the end you're going to ask, 'How can we help people?' 行为经济学实际上是心理学和经济学的结合。请试着理解一下人们所犯的有关于金钱的错误。在剩下的12分53秒中，我可以一直在这里站着取笑我们管理金钱的各种方法。结束的时候你们就会问：“我们如何才能帮补别人呢”？And that's what I really want to focus on today. How do we take an understanding of the money mistakes people make, and then turning the behavioral challenges into behavioral solutions? And what I'm going to talk about today is Save More Tomorrow.这才是我今天想讲的重点：我们如何理解别人在管理金钱上犯的错误，并且改变这些行为上的挑战，使其变为解决方案？今天我将要讲的是增加未来的储蓄。I want to address the issue of savings. We have on the screen a representative sample of 100 Americans.And we're going to look at their saving behavior. First thing to notice is, half of them do not even have access to a 401(k) plan. 我想讨论一下储蓄的问题，在屏幕上有一个100个美国人的代表性样本，我们将会看一下他们的储蓄行为。首先需要注意的是他们当中一半人都没有加入401退休福利计划。They cannot make savings easy. They cannot have money go away from their paycheck into a 401(k) plan before they see it, before they can touch it. What about the remaining half of the people? Some of them elect not to save. They're just too lazy. 他们想要储蓄很不容易，他们不能将钱一眼不看、一分不动地投入到 401退休福利计划当中。那么剩下的一半人呢？他们中的一部分选择不储蓄，他们只是太懒了。They never get around to logging into a complicated website and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan. And then they have to decide how they're going to invest in their 52 choices, 他们从来不愿意登录一个比较复杂的网站，并且点击17下鼠标加入401退休福利计划。然后他们需要决定如何投资52种不同的计划，and they never heard about what is a money market fund. And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join. How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan? One third of Americans. Two thirds are not saving now.他们也从未听说过什么是货币市场基金，他们应接不暇，所以也就不了了之了。有多少人最后会加入401退休福利计划呢？三分之一的美国人，三分之二的美国人现在没有在储蓄。Are they saving enough? Take out those who say they save too little. One out of 10 are saving enough. Nine out of 10 either cannot save through their 401(k) plan, decide not to save -- or don't decide -- or save too little. 他们存够钱了么，除去那些说自己没有存钱的人。10个人里面有一个人存的钱是足够的。10个人中有9个或者是不能通过401退休福利计划存款或者是决定不存款，或者还没决定存不存款，或者存款少的微乎其微。We think we have a problem of people saving too much. Let's look at that. We have one person -- well, actually we're going to slice him in half because it's less than one percent. Roughly half a percent of Americans feel that they save too much.我想那些存款过多的人面临着一个问题，让我们来看一下我们有一个人实际上我们只算他的一半，因为这个数据是少于1%的，大约有0.5%的美国人认为他们存的钱太多了。What are we going to do about it? That's what I really want to focus on. We have to understand why people are not saving, and then we can hopefully flip the behavioral challenges into behavioral solutions, and then see how powerful it might be. 那么我们该如何对待这件事情呢？这就是为什么我想将重点放在这上，我们需要理解人们不去储蓄的原因，这样我们才有希望跨过行为上的障碍，将其变为解决方式，并且看一下这会有多强大。So let me divert for a second as we're going to identify the problems, the challenges, the behavioral challenges, that prevent people from saving. I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.所以请给我一秒钟转移话题，因为我们即将要找到那些问题人们在储蓄上面对的挑战、行为上的挑战，我想先谈一下香蕉和巧克力。Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week. And during the break there would be a snack and you could choose bananas or chocolate. How many of you think you would like to have bananas during this hypothetical TED event next week? Who would go for bananas? 假设我们下周还有一次美好的TED讲座，那么在休息期间会有茶点提供，你有香蕉或者是巧克力可以选择。那么各位有多少人在这场假想的讲座的茶歇间，会选择吃香蕉呢？有多少人吃香蕉，请举手。Wonderful. I predict scientifically 74 percent of you will go for bananas. Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted. And then count down the days and see what people ended up eating. The same people that imagined themselves eating the bananas ended up eating chocolates a week later.很好 我从科学角度预计你们当中有74%的人会选择香蕉。至少一个很好的研究也应该能预测到这一点，然后让我们等到那一天，看看人们最后吃的什么吧。那些想象着自己吃香蕉的人一周之后吃的都是巧克力。Self-control is not a problem in the future. It's only a problem now when the chocolate is next to us. What does it have to do with time and savings, this issue of immediate gratification? Or as some economists call it, present bias. We think about saving. 自控能力不是未来的一个问题，当巧克力就在我们手边的时候，这就是一个现在的问题。这与时间、与储蓄有什么关系呢？与这种即时的喜悦又有什么关系呢？一些经济学家将其称为，及时性偏见。我们总是想着储蓄。We know we should be saving. We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend. Christmas is coming, we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know. So this issue of present bias causes us to think about saving, but end up spending.我们知道我们应该储蓄，我们知道我们明年会做，但是今天我们还是先消费吧，圣诞节快到了，我们会给认识的所有人都买礼物，所以这种及时性偏见，让我们想的是储蓄但却以花钱告终。Let me now talk about another behavioral obstacle to saving having to do with inertia. But again, a little diversion to the topic of organ donation. Wonderful study comparing different countries. We're going to look at two similar countries, Germany and Austria. 让我再谈一个与惰性有关的储蓄的行为障碍，但是同样我需要先岔开一下话题，谈一下器官捐赠。这是一个有关不同国家的非常好的比较研究，我们将要看两个相像的国家德国和奥地利。And in Germany, if you would like to donate your organs --God forbid something really bad happens to you -- when you get your driving license or an I.D., you check the box saying, 'I would like to donate my organs.' Not many people like checking boxes. It takes effort. You need to think. Twelve percent do. 在德国如果你想要捐赠器官，希望上帝是可以保佑你的在你在拿到驾照或者是身份证的时候，你需要在方框中打勾来说明“我想要捐赠器官”。没有多少人在方框中打勾，这需要很大努力，你需要再三考虑，有12%的人选择捐赠。Austria, a neighboring country, slightly similar, slightly different. What's the difference? Well, you still have choice. You will decide whether you want to donate your organs or not. But when you get your driving license, you check the box if you do not want to donate your organ. 在邻国奥地利情况略有相似，却也有些不同，那么什么地方不同呢？那就是你还是有选择的，你需要决定你是不是想要捐赠器官，但是当你拿到驾照的时候如果你不想捐赠器官，你需要在方框中打勾。Nobody checks boxes. That's kind of too much effort. One percent check the box. The rest do nothing. Doing nothing is very common. Not many people check boxes.没有人在方框中打勾，这太费劲了，只有1%的人打了勾，其他的人什么都没有做，无所事事是很正常的只有少部分人在方框中打勾。What are the implications to saving lives and having organs available? In Germany, 12 percent check the box. Twelve percent are organ donors. Huge shortage of organs, God forbid, if you need one. In Austria, again, nobody checks the box. 那么救助他人性命和器官捐赠有什么影响呢？在德国有12%的人打了勾有12%的人是器官捐赠者，器官短缺非常严重，上帝保佑你，如果你需要一个的话。在奥地利，同样的，没有人勾上了方框。Therefore, 99 percent of people are organ donors. Inertia, lack of action. What is the default setting if people do nothing, if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes? Very powerful. 因此99%的人都是器官捐赠者。惰性、缺乏行动，如果人们什么也不做，那么默认的什么就是什么，如果他们一直拖延下去，如果他们不选择呢，这是很有力的。We're going to talk about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared to make their 401(k) choices. Are we going to make them automatically join the plan, or are they going to be left out? 我们将会谈一谈如果人们很害怕选择投资401退休福利计划时，该怎么办？我们是应该让他们自愿加入计划，还是让他们被落下。In too many 401(k) plans, if people do nothing, it means they're not saving for retirement, if they don't check the box. And checking the box takes effort.在许多401退休福利计划当中，如果人们什么也不做 这就意味着如果他们不在方框中打勾，他们就没有为未来存钱，而打勾是花费精力的。So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges. One more before we flip the challenges into solutions, having to do with monkeys and apples. No, no, no, this is a real study and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics. 我们已经谈及了几个行为障碍，在我们跨过挑战讨论解决方案之前，我们再来谈一个，这个与猴子和苹果有关系。不不不，这是一项存在的研究与行为经济学有很大关系。One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy. The other group gets two apples, one is taken away. They still have an apple left. They're really mad. Why have you taken our apple?有一组猴子得到了一个苹果，它们很高兴。另一组猴子得到了两个苹果，但是有一个被拿走了，它们只剩下了一个苹果，它们就非常的愤怒，为什么要拿走我们的苹果。This is the notion of loss aversion. We hate losing stuff, even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk. You would hate to go to the ATM, take out 100 dollars and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills. It's very painful, even though it doesn't mean anything. 这就是由损失引起的厌恶情绪，我们讨厌失去东西即使我们并不会因此承担多大风险。如果你去自动取款机取出100美元，然后发现你丢了其中的20美元，你很可能会很愤恨，即使这并不意味着任何事情，这还是非常令人心痛的。Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch. So this notion of loss aversion kicks in when it comes to savings too, because people, mentally and emotionally and intuitivelyframe savings as a loss because I have to cut my spending.这20美元很可能代表着一顿午餐。所以这种对损失的愤恨情绪在储蓄的时候同样也会发生，因为人们从精神上、情感上和本能上都认为储蓄是一种损失，因为我需要减少花销。So we talked about all sorts of behavioral challenges having to do with savings eventually. Whether you think about immediate gratification, and the chocolates versus bananas, it's just painful to save now. It's a lot more fun to spend now. 那让我们来讨论一下最终可能会影响到储蓄的各种行为上的困难，无论你想到的是不是即时的喜悦，还是巧克力与香蕉之间的选择，从现在开始存款就是很令人心痛的。现在开始花钱却有趣得多。We talked about inertia and organ donations and checking the box. If people have to check a lot of boxes to join a 401(k) plan, they're going to keep procrastinating and not join. And last, we talked about loss aversion, and the monkeys and the apples. 我们讨论了惰性与器官捐赠以及是否在方框内打勾，如果人们需要打很多个勾才能加入401退休福利计划的话，他们就会搁置下这件事选择不去参加。最后，我们来谈下由损失引起的厌恶情绪以及猴子和苹果的故事。If people frame mentally saving for retirement as a loss, they're not going to be saving for retirement.如果人们在思想上认为，为退休而储蓄是一种损失的话，他们就不会打算为退休而储蓄。So we've got these challenges, and what Richard Thaler and I were always fascinated by -- take behavioral finance, make it behavioral finance on steroids or behavioral finance 2.0 or behavioral finance in action --flip the challenges into solutions. 所以我们得出了以下人们可能面临的困难。理查德·泰勒和我总是对这些困难很感兴趣，将行为金融学变得更加深入具体。或者我们可以称其为行为金融学2.0版或者现实中的行为金融学，将所面临的困难化为解决方案。And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution called Save More, not today, Tomorrow. 我们得出了一个异常简单的解决方案叫做为了明天而储蓄，不是今天。How is it going to solve the challenges we chatted about? If you think about the problem of bananas versus chocolates, we think we're going to eat bananas next week. We think we're going to save more next year. 那么这种方案将怎样解决我们刚刚谈到的这些困难呢？如果你想到了香蕉还是巧克力的问题，想我们下周应该是吃香蕉，那么我们就应该想我们明年要存更多的钱，明天存更多的钱。Save More Tomorrow invites employees to save more maybe next year --sometime in the future when we can imagine ourselves eating bananas, volunteering more in the community, exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.邀请员工也许明年开始存更多的钱。未来的某一天，我们想象自己吃香蕉或者志愿参加更多的社区活动的时候，更多的锻炼或者是做所有正确的事情。Now we also talked about checking the box and the difficulty of taking action. Save More Tomorrow makes it easy. It's an autopilot. Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future, 现在我们再来谈一下在方框中打勾以及采取行动所面临的困难。明天存更多的钱让这些困难变得简单。他是一个自动驾驶仪，一旦你告诉我你想要在未来存更多的钱，let's say every January you're going to be saving more automatically and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan before you see it, before you touch it, before you get the issue of immediate gratification. But what are we going to do about the monkeys and loss aversion? 比如说每个一月份开始，你都想开始存更多的钱。那么在你看到或拿到你的工资前，一部分钱就已经赚到了你的401退休福利计划当中，这样你就不会有因为及时的喜悦而难以选择的问题。但是我们应该怎么处理那些猴子和由损失引起的愤恨情绪呢？Next January comes and people might feel that if they save more, they have to spend less, and that's painful. Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January. Maybe we should make people save more when they make more money. 当明年一月份来临的时候，人们可能会觉得如果他们存更多的钱，那么他们需要少花钱，他们因此而心痛，也许我们不应该仅仅从一月份开始。当人们赚的越多的时候我们就应该让他们存的更多。That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise, they don't have to cut their spending. They take a little bit of the increase in the paycheck home and spend more -- take a little bit of the increase and put it in a 401(k) plan.这样的话，当他们赚的越多，当他们的收入升高的时候，他们就不需要减少开支了。他们可以将涨的工资的一部分拿回家，增加开销，然后再多拿出一点投入到401退休福利计划当中。So that is the program, embarrassingly simple, but as we're going to see, extremely powerful. We first implemented it, Richard Thaler and I, back in 1998. 这就是我们的项目非常非常的简单，但是我们将会看到非常有效的成果。理查德·泰勒和我最初施行这个项目是在1998年的时候。Mid-sized company in the Midwest, blue collar employees struggling to pay their bills repeatedly told us they cannot save more right away. Saving more today is not an option. 在中西部的中型公司中的蓝领工人中间推行的。他们挣扎在交各种账单，他们不断地告诉我们他们不能马上存下来钱。今天存更多的钱不是可行的。We invited them to save three percentage points more every time they get a pay raise. And here are the results. We're seeing here a three and a half-year period, four pay raises, people who were struggling to save, were saving three percent of their paycheck, three and a half years later saving almost four times as much, almost 14 percent.那么我们就让他们在每次涨工资的时候，都多存3%的钱。那么结果就是在三年半的时间内，他们的收入涨了四次。那些很难存下钱的人就存下了他们工资的3%，三年半之后他们就存下了大约四倍的数量，也就是大约14%。And there's shoes and bicycles and things on this chart because I don't want to just throw numbers in a vacuum. I want, really, to think about the fact that saving four times more is a huge difference in terms of the lifestyle that people will be able to afford. 就相当于买鞋和自行车的钱，以及在这张表上显示的其他物品，因为我不仅仅想凭空用数字说话，我真的想要想一下这个事实，那就是多存四倍的钱真的会在人们能支付的其的生活方式上有很大的不同。It's real. It's not just numbers on a piece of paper. Whereas with saving three percent, people might have to add nice sneakers so they can walk, because they won't be able to afford anything else, when they save 14 percent they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes to walk to the car to drive. 这是真的，这不仅仅是一张纸上的数字，然而当只存3%的钱的时候 ，人们可能只能买新的平板鞋为了走路，因为他们负担不起其他的东西。要是他们存14%的话，他们可能就有钱买漂亮的礼服鞋穿着，开车出去玩这是很大的不同。This is a real difference. By now, about 60 percent of the large companies actually have programs like this in place. It's been part of the Pension Protection Act. And needless to say that Thaler and I have been blessed to be part of this program and make a difference.到现在，有60%左右的大型公司已经实际上推行了这样的项目，这是养老金保护法案的一部分，无需赘言泰勒和我也有幸成为这个项目的一部分，并且做出了一些改变。Let me wrap with two key messages. One is behavioral finance is extremely powerful. This is just one example. Message two is there's still a lot to do. This is really the tip of the iceberg. 让我来总结两条重点：第一点是行为金融学是非常强大的，这仅仅是其中的一个例子。第二点就是，我们要做的还有很多这仅仅是冰山一角。If you think about people and mortgages and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it, we need to think about that. If you're thinking about people taking too much risk and not understanding how much risk they're taking or taking too little risk, we need to think about that. 如果你想一下人们与按揭贷款，人们在买房子但是他们却根本支付不起，这是我们需要考虑的问题之一；我们还需要想，要是人们承担了过多的风险却不知道他们到底承担了多少风险，或者是承担的太少的风险该怎么办？If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year on lottery tickets, we need to think about that. The average actually, the record is in Singapore. 我们还要想如果有人一年花1000美元在乐透彩上，该怎么办？实际上，平均而言新加坡的数据就是如此。The average house holdspends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets. We've got a lot to do, a lot to solve, also in the retirement area when it comes to what people do with their money after retirement.在那里每家每年花费4000美元在买乐透彩上，我们要做的还有很多我们有许多问题要解决。还有一个关于退休的问题是当退休之后人们如何分配他们的钱？One last question: How many of you feel comfortable that as you're planning for retirement you have a really solid plan when you're going to retire, when you're going to claim Social Security benefits, what lifestyle to expect, how much to spend every month so you're not going to run out of money? 最后一个问题当你们为退休而打算的时候，你们当中有多少人可以说关于你们何时退休你有一个很稳定的计划，什么时候去领社会保障金？退休后过什么样的生活？每个月需要花多少钱才能保证钱足够花？How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future when it comes to post-retirement decisions. One, two, three, four. Less than three percent of a very sophisticated audience. Behavioral finance has a long way. There's a lot of opportunities to make it powerful again and again and again.当谈到退休后的决定的时候在座有多少人认为你们对于未来的打算稳妥了呢？一二三四在这些经验丰富的观众中只有不到3%。行为金融学还有很长的路要走还有很多机会将它变得越来越强大。
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