月球是谁的？

Who owns this?

月球是谁的？

Is it America, the country that planted a flag on it?

是美国吗？因为在它上面插了一面国旗？

Or this man, who has been selling plots of it for almost 40 years?

或者这个已经卖了将近40年的月球上的土地的人？

Or is it us and anyone else who bought one and has the certificate to prove it?

或者是我们中的某人？买下了月球并且持有证书证明的？

Today many believe the Moon could be the next frontier for tourism, space exploration, or even the mining of precious natural resources, which means this question might be about to become a lot more important.

今天，许多人认为月球可能是下一个旅游、太空探索，甚至是开采宝贵自然资源的前沿阵地，这意味着这个问题可能会变得更加重要。

In 1969, an estimated 650 million people watched as Neil Armstrong took his first step on the surface of the Moon.

1969年，据估计有6.5亿人观看了尼尔·阿姆斯特朗踏上月球表面的第一步。

Five more landings followed.

随后又有五次月球着陆。

And then for almost 50 years, no humans went back.

然而，近50年来，没有人再去过月球。

That is about to change.

这种情况即将发生变化。

There are dozens of lunar missions planned over the next 20 years, and some will carry crews.

未来20年计划进行数十次登月任务，其中一些还将搭载宇航员。

The first to land could be in 2024, when NASA hopes to send a crew to the lunar south pole, where it's believed water may be frozen in craters.

第一次登陆可能是在2024年，美国宇航局希望派遣一批宇航员前往月球的南极，据称那里可能有水被冻结在火山口中。

That crew may well include the first woman to land on the Moon.

这些船员中很可能会有一名女性，第一名登上月球的女性。

After years of being left alone, why is the Moon hot property once again?

这么多年的无人问津之后，为什么月球现在又火了？

This book could have the answers, or at least the man who wrote it might.

这本书中有答案，或者至少是写这本书的人有答案。

He's Oliver Morton, senior editor at The Economist.

他是奥利弗·莫顿，《经济学人》的高级编辑。

The most simple reason perhaps is tourism.

最简单的原因就是旅游业。

We do live on a planet now with an extraordinary number of very rich people, and only some of them need to think this is a cool idea for it to happen.

我们现在生活在一个拥有大量富人的星球上，这些富人中就有人有这个想法。

There is a Japanese billionaire who has ordered a space flight from SpaceX, Elon Musk's company.

有一位日本亿万富翁从埃隆·马斯克的公司SpaceX订购了一次太空旅行。

The Chinese have talked about putting people onto the Moon, then the Americans are thinking about going back because the Chinese are thinking about going.

中国说要把人送上月球，而美国因为中国在考虑去月球之后，也想去月球了。

Of course none of this would be happening if you still had to spend sort of like a huge chunk of America's national budget to go to the Moon.

当然，如果仍然需要花费大量的美国国家预算才能去月球的话，那绝对不可能。

But in fact you probably don't now.

但事实是可能已经不需要花这么多钱了。

The price of a space launch, the most expensive part of going to the Moon, has dropped substantially.

太空发射是去月球这个计划中最昂贵的部分，但是它的价格已经大幅下降了。

In 1981, NASA paid almost $62000 a kilo to launch the Space Shuttle.

1981年，美国宇航局花了将近每公斤62000美元的价格来发射航天飞机。

Last year SpaceX's Falcon Heavy cost just under one and a half thousand dollars a kilo.

去年，SpaceX公司的Falcon重型飞机的价格几乎低于每公斤1.5美元。

That's a real term drop by a factor of 40.

这个价格实际上下降了40倍。

There's another reason the Moon may be an attractive destination: its resources, one of which is vital for supporting life in space.

月球如此有吸引力的另一个原因是：它有某种对于维持太空生命至关重要的资源。

One of the things you don't have much of in space near the Earth is water.

在地球附近的太空中有一种必须存在的资源就是：水。

But in the past few decades, ice has been discovered in craters of the Moon's poles.

在过去的几十年里，在月球两极的陨石坑中发现了冰。

So that's something that would be really useful if you're building a Moon base, because you wouldn't have to ship it up from Earth.

所以，如果要建造一个月球基地，那是非常有用的，因为我们就不需要从地球上运水上来了。

And there's the potential of mineable treasure, including highly valuable platinum-group minerals, left over from asteroid impacts.

还有可开采的宝藏，包括价值极高的小行星撞击留下的铂族矿物。

And the very rare isotope helium-3, absorbed by the Moon's surface from the sun, and used in nuclear fusion to produce a clean source of energy.

和非常罕见的从太阳吸收的同位素氦-3，可以用于核聚变产生清洁能源。

There are plans to mine both.

现在已经有计划要去开采这两种矿物。

But Oliver isn't convinced.

但奥利弗不相信这种事情。

If the platinum-group metals are there in really, really localized rich ways, there might be something to be done there, but we don't know that that's the case.

如果铂族金属是以非常、非常局部化的方式存在的，那可能需要提前做一些事情，但我们不知道情况是怎样的。

The helium-3 is there, but if you're doing something really difficult, like trying to recreate the power that drives the sun in a little magnetic bottle, do you really want to make life harder by saying, oh yeah and I'll use Moon dust too?

氦-3是存在的，但是如果你正在做一些非常困难的事情，比如试图在一个小小的磁瓶里重现驱动太阳的能量，你真的想让一切变得更困难吗，例如说什么我也要使用月球尘埃？

I don't think that's a very serious idea.

我认为这是一个非常不严肃的想法。

As well as its resources.

以及它的资源。

The Moon can teach scientists more about the history of the solar system.

月球可以让科学家更多地了解太阳系的历史。

And it could be a proving ground for further space exploration, for example for a manned mission to Mars.

它可能成为进一步太空探索的试验场，例如载人火星任务。

But ultimately the main driver for returning to the Moon is nationalism.

但最终让人们回到月球的主要动力是民族主义。

I think the politics of the Moon will probably reflect the politics of the Earth.

我认为月球的政策可能会反映地球的政治。

Make no mistake about it.

不要出任何差错。

We're in a space race today, just as we were in the 1960s.

今天我们正在进行太空竞赛，就像上世纪60年代一样。

And the stakes are even higher.

风险更大。

Boundless vistas are beheld from perilous peaks, I hope that our spaceworkers will boldly scale the high peaks on their journey to develop the space industry.

无限风光在险峰，希望广大航天人在航天事业发展的征程上勇攀高峰。

If the two nations that both have an interest in a crater on the south pole of the Moon, also have an interest in say the South China Seas, then the chances that they might be somewhat daggers drawn on the Moon is obviously higher.

如果两国都对月球南极的一个陨石坑感兴趣，就像对中国南海感兴趣一样，那么在月球上就可能发生剑拔弩张的情况。

And this is where who owns what on the Moon really starts to matter.

这就是月球是谁的这个问题变得极其重要的原因。

Which brings us back to this man.

让我们回到这个人身上。

He's Dennis Hope.

他是丹尼斯·霍普。

In 1980, he claimed ownership of the Moon, and started selling it off for around $25 an acre.

1980年，他声称拥有月球，并开始以每英亩25美元的价格出售月球上的土地。

He says it's netted him millions.

他说这让他赚了几百万美元。

Apparently even three former US presidents have Moon plots from him.

显然，就连三位美国前总统都从他那里买了土地。

Vicky Jeong is a space lawyer.

郑薇（音译）是一名太空律师。

Yes, that is a real job.

是的，那是一份真正的工作。

We showed her our lunar certificate.

我们给她看了我们的月球证书。

Oh you've even got a land registration form, wow!

哦，你甚至有一张土地登记表，哇！

It looks very pretty and nice but doesn't have any legal validity at all.

它看起来很漂亮，但根本没有任何法律效力。

This is because of an agreement signed in 1967 called the Outer Space Treaty.

这是因为1967年签署的一项名为《外层空间条约》的协定。

Meanwhile the foreign minister presided at the signing of the treaty banning nuclear weapons from outer space.

同时，外交部长主持签署了禁止外太空核武器条约。

As well as trying to avoid an arms race, the treaty set out certain restrictions.

该条约除了试图避免军备竞赛外，还规定了某些限制。

It states that it should be for the benefit of all mankind, and it sets out important principles such as non-appropriation.

该条约指出，月球应该是全人类的利益所在，它还提出了一些重要的原则，如不占有。

So whether you put up a flag, whether you do anything, you build anything, you just don't have property rights over the Moon.

所以，无论你挂起哪面国旗，无论你做了什么，你建造了什么，你还是没有对月球的产权。

But the Outer Space Treaty only prohibits ownership of the Moon itself.

但《外层空间条约》只禁止拥有月球本身。

The legality of who owns resources found on the Moon like metals or water is left up to interpretation.

谁拥有在月球上发现的资源，如金属或水，其合法性还有待解释。

So what if say China and America both want to mine the same bit of the Moon?

那么，如果说中美两国都想开采同样的月球资源呢？

To work out what could happen up here, we have to look down there.

为了弄清楚会发生什么，我们得往下看。

So the deep sea is really not a part of any country.

我们知道深海并不是任何国家的一部分。

It's also very hard to get to and that's like the Moon.

人类也很难到达深海，就像也很难到达月球一样。

So the Law of the Sea is the best model there is at the moment for what a Moon agreement might be like.

因此，《海洋法》是目前达成月球协议的最佳模式。

The Law of the Sea sets out which part of the deep ocean belongs to specific countries, and which is shared by all humankind.

《海洋法》规定了深海的哪一部分属于哪个国家，哪些是全人类共有的。

For those areas it has strict criteria for how private companies can mine for their own gain.

在这些领域，《海洋法》对私营公司如何为自己的利益进行资源开采制定了严格的标准。

This includes respecting the environment and ensuring some of the proceeds go to help less-developed countries.

包括保护环境和确保部分收益用于帮助欠发达国家。

But America has refused to ratify the Law of the Sea, believing as with the Moon in 'finders keepers'.

但美国拒绝承认《海洋法》，认为月球也是：谁发现就是谁的。

So even if there is a new Moon treaty, America is unlikely to sign up to it if it's modelled on the Law of the Sea.

因此，即使有一个新的月球条约，如果是仿照《海洋法》的话，美国也不太可能签署。

There is definitely a need to create another international legal framework.

所以绝对有必要建立另一个国际法律框架。

Most countries recognize that.

大多数国家都意识到了这一点。

But it is very hard to reach consensus, because a lot have their own interests.

但很难达成共识，因为很多人都有自己的利益。

It will be a political mess.

这将是一场政治上的混乱。

Just how much of a mess won't be known until the first crater is mined or the first hotel is built.

直到第一个陨石坑被开采或第一家旅馆建成，我们才能知道到底有多少乱七八糟的东西亟待解决。

And it may be many moons until the question of who owns the Moon is finally resolved.

所以可能会有很多个月球（这里是指很多人都声称自己拥有月球，所以有许多不同的说法），直到月球是谁的这个问题最终得到解决。