转载：穆迪称巴菲特旗下保险公司抗利率上调风险能力超同业

 穆迪称巴菲特旗下保险公司抗风险能力超同业

2012-04-06 10:47:24　来源: 网易财经　有0人参与 手机看新闻

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网易财经4月6日讯 评级机构穆迪研究认为，如果利率出现上升，沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司能比竞争对手的财产险保险公司更好的回避固定收益投资价值下降造成的损失。

如果利息上升100个基点，以亏损投资人权益百分比计算，伯克希尔排在37家财产保险公司的末尾。穆迪的测试假设12个月内利率增长100个基点，两年内至少增长300个基点。

穆迪分析师Paul Bauer表示：“固定收益资产投资收益的分化，可能将是一段时期内利息增长产生的收益。”

保 险人通常持有固定收益投资到到期日，这意味他们必须承担损失。而伯克希尔持有的320亿美元债券组合的贬值将小于其对手，这主要是因为巴菲特选择的投资期 限较短，并且他对固定收益资产投资比例较低。巴菲特在最近的投资者信中说，公司的策略仍然是投资股票，并缩小了对债券、抵押债券和货币市场基金的投资。

81岁的巴菲特投资了2000亿美元收购包括可口可乐到美国运通在内的股票。他仍然认为这些固定收益资产存在问题。

在2月25日的投资者信中他说：“他们仍然是最危险的资产，在过去一个世纪中他们摧毁了许多国家的购买力，即便这些人仍然按时在回收利息和本金。”

穆迪估计如果利息增长150个基点，财产保险业将会有约为600亿美元的损失。向公立学校出售保险的Horace Mann Educators Corp将是最大的损失者。

穆迪Bauer认为：“对于那些现在不持有大量债券投资，或者那些注重短期债务的投资者而言，他们相比把投资锁定在长期债券上的公司，更能利用利息上涨的优势。”（浮游）

Buffett Guards Berkshire From higher Rates, Moody’s Says

By Noah Buhayar - Apr 6, 2012 4:31 AM GMT+0800

• http://www./news/2012-04-05/buffett-guards-berkshire-from-higher-rates-moody-s-says.html

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) is better positioned than rival property-casualty insurers to sidestep a decline in the value of fixed-income securities if interest rates rise, Moody’s Investors Service said.

Berkshire’s capital losses as a percentage of shareholder’s equity would be the lowest among 27 property-casualty and multi- line insurers if interest rates climb 100 basis points, according to a Moody’s report. The ratings firm projects an increase of at least that much over the next 12 months and as much as a 300-basis-point rise over the next two years.

Enlarge image 

Warren Buffett in San Francisco. Photographer: Tim Wagner/Zuma Press

“Investment diversification away from fixed-income assets is generally likely to be a benefit during a period of rising interest rates,” Moody’s analysts, led by Paul Bauer, wrote in the report dated yesterday.

Buffett, 81, built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire into a $200 billion firm through acquisitions and by accumulating equity stakes in companies such as Coca-Cola Co. and American Express Co. In February, he reiterated his company’s strategy of buying companies and investing in stocks to increase shareholder returns. He shunned investments including bonds, mortgages and money-market funds.

“They are among the most dangerous of assets,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders published Feb. 25. “Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal.”

Capital Losses

Moody’s projected capital losses of about $60 billion for the property-casualty industry if rates rise by 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points. Insurers often hold fixed- income investments to maturity, which means they may not have to realize the losses, the ratings firm said.

Declines in Berkshire’s $32 billion of bonds would be less than those of rivals, as a portion of shareholders’ equity, in part because Buffett’s firm has a shorter-duration portfolio and a smaller percentage of its investments dedicated to fixed- income, Bauer said. Horace Mann Educators Corp. (HMN), the seller of insurance to public school employees, would fare the worst if rates rise, because of its longer portfolio duration and higher allocation to bonds, Moody’s said.

The analysis “is a view of our entire investment portfolio, of which the vast majority are life-company investments,” Paul Wappel, a spokesman for Springfield, Illinois-based Horace Mann, said by phone. “To draw conclusions about our property-and-casualty company from this report is misleading. Our P&C portfolio duration is generally consistent with the Moody’s study.”

Longer Dated Liabilities

The ratings firm said in its report that life insurers have longer dated liabilities, “moderating the interest-rate risk of their investments.”

Buffett didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment sent to an assistant, Carrie Kizer. Berkshire is the largest shareholder in Moody’s Corp., the parent of the ratings firm, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Moody’s assigns its third-highest grade to Berkshire while Standard & Poor’s gives Buffett’s firm its second-best rating.

Aside from capital losses, an increase in interest rates would benefit insurers by boosting investment income, Moody’s said. Firms with a shorter duration would be better positioned to gain from the higher yields, said Bauer.

“For companies that don’t have a lot of bond investments now, or they are just focused in short-term debt, they will be able to take advantage of higher rates easier than a company that has their investments locked up in long-term bonds,” he said today in a phone interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at [e-mail].

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at [e-mail]