Battery EVs: Not If, But When and How Fast (Part 2) | EE Times

一点进步 2020-08-06

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Market forces behind battery EVs (BEV) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are rapidly changing. This is the second in a two-part examination of the market battle between BEV and ICEV. Part 1 discussed the big picture on how the two technologies stack up, their differences and unique characteristics. Today I offer analysis and perspectives why and how BEVs will win in the long run.

There are two approaches to electric vehicles — BEVs and PHEVs. In BEVs the propulsion system is based on batteries only. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) use both batteries and an internal combustion engine. This column is focused on BEVs, because it is the long-term winner. Medium and heavy truck segments are also starting to use batteries or fuel-cells, but are not included in this analysis.

In five years or so, the BEV will meet the main criteria that makes it competitive or better than an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) — purchase price parity, variety of models for most use-cases, and much lower operating costs than ICEV. A large public charging infrastructure approaching gas station coverage will take much longer, but home charging will be a great benefit that will be enough for a large portion of potential buyers. The next table looks at key topics and questions that most potential BEV buyers may have.

BEV — *Click the image to enlarge. (Source: Egil Juliussen)*

Battery costs have declined dramatically, by about 87%, from 2010 to 2019 and further price reductions are expected over the next decades. A December 2019 blog from BloombergNEF said that 1 kilowatt-hour (KWh) at the battery pack level had dropped to $156 compared to $1,000 in 2010.

This trend indicates that 1 KWh battery cost will reach $100 by 2025 or possibly earlier. There is general agreement that when battery costs reach $100 per KWh, BEV purchase price will be equal to ICEV purchase price for many vehicle segments.

Many BEV models are needed to cover all vehicle segments to satisfy all buyers’ needs and use-cases. Hence BEV models must be available in large and small vehicles, cars, trucks, SUVs and other vehicle segments. There have been few BEV models so far, but planned introductions have grown significantly in the last three years. It is likely that enough model variety will be available around 2025 to meet most buyers’ use-cases. Most major auto makers will have 10 to 20 BEV models available in 2025 or shortly thereafter.

Lower operating cost
The lower operating costs of BEVs is another major advantage. Lower BEV operating costs are due to lower maintenance cost and lower fuel costs. BEVs have far fewer moving parts and less fluids, which translates to about 50% maintenance savings versus ICEVs. The average cost of electricity per mile driven for BEVs is around 50% of gasoline cost at $2.50 per gallon in the U.S. In Europe where gasoline cost is much higher, BEVs have even better fuel cost savings. Long-term, BEVs may also last longer in terms of miles driven as both Tesla and GM are talking about batteries lasting 1 million miles.

The long charging time of BEVs is a significant disadvantage versus refueling time of ICEV that is only 3-5 minutes. BEV charging is improving by both higher powered and faster charging systems plus future battery technologies with quicker charging times. This will not be enough to match ICEV refueling times.

The option of home charging for BEVs is a great benefit, but primarily works for BEV owners with a garage. A large BEV charging network is needed in every country to make BEVs successful. The strategy of where to locate the charging stations will be important to minimize the impact of BEVs long charging times. Existing gas station networks will certainly add BEV charging points to get this business and especially the potential higher product sales from BEV owners. With longer refueling time of BEVs, the profitable product sales may be larger than for ICEVs.

The BEV charging network also need to be in places where BEV owners regularly spend time of an hour or so. This includes workplaces, shopping centers, restaurants and other entertainment areas. It looks like Tesla is using this approach as part of charging network location strategy.

Emerging technologies to improve BEV
There are a couple of emerging technologies that will help improve BEV charging time versus ICEV fueling advantages. Wireless charging is becoming popular for smartphones and similar technologies are available for BEVs, but are not ready for volume deployment yet. Most wireless charging technologies are more efficient than wired charging due to less heat generation. Just check the temperature of your PC charger and you will see what I mean. However, it is more complex to deploy wireless charging infrastructures than wired versions. The BEV must also be modified to include the electronics for wireless charging. Wireless charging has many advantages such as using less electricity while charging and being easier to use.

There is another intriguing technology with faster charging potential for BEVs —super-capacitors. Think of a super-capacitor as similar to how cache memories speed up the performance of computers. The super-capacitor can be the “cache battery” between the BEV’s battery and the charging network or between the charging network and the electric power network. Super-capacitors have future potential for improving BEV charging time, but the timing and use-cases have too much uncertainties for predictions.

The charging frequency is also important and depends on yearly miles driven and BEV range. IHS Markit tracks the powertrain specification of all vehicle models sold across the world and includes a most comprehensive database and forecast of BEV specifications including battery size per model. The average battery size for BEVs sold in 2019 was about 52 KWh, which is projected to grow to over 70 KWh by 2030. Current BEV range of recently introduced models are typically 250 miles, but some BEV models are getting up to 400 miles. The range of future BEVs will increase significantly.

The average yearly miles driven per car in the United States was 13,500 miles based on 2019 Federal Highway Administration data. If we assume a BEV range of 300 miles, and a recharge averaging every 250 miles, the result is approximately a weekly recharging (54 times). However, range-anxiety is likely to create more recharging events. BEV owners with home charging are also likely to charge more often.

BEVs use technologies that can provide excellent driving performance. The electric motor provides nearly instantaneous torque, which translates into superb acceleration that often exceeds high-performance ICEVs. The location of batteries can be spread evenly across the bottom of the vehicle and provide a low center of gravity that give outstanding handling characteristics.

Minimal CO₂ emissions where BEVs are used is a major advantage over ICEVs, which produce 19.6 pounds of CO₂ for every gallon of gasoline used. Electricity generation may produce CO₂ where it is generated, but varies greatly by what technology is used. One could argue that big cities get lower CO₂ emissions at the expense of outlying areas where the electricity is generated.

Regulations that limit the use of ICEVs are emerging in some cities — especially in Europe where diesel vehicles have the highest market share. A few countries have set tentative dates for when ICEV will no longer be sold, but such dates are likely to be delayed. This ICEV regulation trend will increase future BEV deployment in many urban settings.

BEV buying incentives have already made an impact and will continue to do so. Buying incentives were most important when BEV prices were much higher than ICEVs. The incentives varied a lot by country and region. As the BEV price premium declines, buying incentives are less important. But BEV incentives will remain important for a few more years, but its impact will decline and is likely to disappear after 2025.

The use of BEVs does not generate much tax revenue to support maintenance and improvements of the road network. ICEVs are taxed via gasoline fees that support road network upgrades. There is little doubt that BEV use will soon get a tax to pay for their road usage. The most likely taxing methods is a mileage fee, but other taxes may be possible and will vary by regions. This future BEV tax will lower the operational cost advantage that BEVs have over ICEVs.

The future sales success of BEVs is always a key question and there is a large variety of answers based on how aggressive the forecasts are. Since I am familiar with IHS Markit’s forecast and understand their methodology, I will use their forecast trends. IHS Markit forecast BEV sales based on auto manufacturers’ current BEV models and future model plans. This methodology gives BEV forecasts that reflects the auto industry’s production planning perspectives. Since the auto OEMs BEV plans have increased greatly the last few years, the IHS Markit BEV projections have also grown. As auto OEMs add more BEV models to their portfolio, future BEV forecasts are likely to be larger. IHS Markit BEV global sales estimate was about 2.3% of total light vehicle sales. For 2030 the BEV global market share jumps to over 13%. If PHEV are included the 2030 market share is around 21%–up from 3.2% in 2019.

Summary
There is a saying in high-tech “nothing dies slower than obsolete technology” and that may apply to the remaining life of ICEVs. Of course, the ICEV is not obsolete and will continue to be popular. ICEV technology advances are harder to do and are much more costly to develop and deploy than a decade or two ago. BEVs are improving rapidly and are on a path to become the dominant propulsion technology for cars and other light vehicle segments. The remaining question is how quickly this will happen.