|
All OPEC data below is from the August OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The data is through July 2020 and is in thousand barrels per day.  OPEC crude only was up almost one million barrels per day in July.  The lions share of the increase in OPEC production came Saudi Arabia. Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE accounted for the rest.  It is a little surprising that Algeria did not increase production in July.  Angola continued to decline in July.  The Congo also suffered a slight decline in July.  Equatorial Guinea does not produce enough to make a difference either way.  Gabon down slightly. They haven’t been paying much attention to OPEC cuts either.  Iran is still suffering under sanctions. It will be interesting to see how the Biden Administration handles Iran.  Iraq increased production slightly, 39,000 bpd, in July.  Kuwait increased production by 73,000 bpd in July.  Libya thought they had a deal with the rebels, but they didn’t. Analyst see no hope for Libya in the near future. They all predict things will just get worse, at least in the near term. Nigerian oil production showed a slight decline. Saudi Arabia increased crude oil production by 866,000 barrels per day in July. That was 88% of the total OPEC increase of 980,000 barrels per day. The UAE had the second highest production increase in July, 98,000 barrels per day. Venezuela’s misery just continues. Here is where ALL the action is within OPEC. And here is what is happening with the rest of OPEC. Their claim that OPEC’s share of total global production (26.1%) is simply not correct. They are measuring OPEC crude only as compared with world total liquids, including OPEC’s condensate, NGLs, and other liquids. Since 2013, OPEC has averaged producing about 40% of world C+C. Russia is the only other nation with data through July 2020. Russian C+C production was 9,371.000 barrels per day in July, down from 11,339,000 barrels per day in April. This is OPEC crude only plus Russian C+C through July 2020. Over the last few years, OPEC plus Russian oil production has averaged about 53% of world oil production. The case for peak oil! The data for the two charts below is through March 2020, or the month before the virus collapse began. These four nations are where virtually all the oil production in the last five years has come from. Since 2016 their increase has averaged just over five million barrels per day. The rest of the world peaked, both average and monthly, in 2016. Since then their average production has declined over 3.6 million barrels per day. Russia has said that they have peaked at about the point they held in March, around 11.2 million barrels per day. And it looks for all the world that the USA has peaked also, though some may believe this is not the case. Nevertheless, those nations in decline will continue to decline at close to the rate they have declined since 2016. So the question is, will those four nations that have been responsible for keeping the world oil production increasing since 2016 continue to do so? No, that is simply not going to happen. Or at least that is my humble opinion. The North Dakota data has just been released. Their production was up 30,748 barrels per day. The North Dakota Director’s Cut. |
|
|
