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题目：1994年爆发的墨西哥金融危机：表面是偶然，其实是必然 墨西哥在1994年爆发了严重的金融危机，从这件事上我们至少应该有3点反思。
【感谢局势君翻译团队全体成员】：Carry、一平方米、阿琳仔°、Hanferia、Arthur、奤驹、jessie、原来Molly有魔力 墨西哥在1994年闹过一场金融危机，在危机肆虐的短短3个多月里，墨西哥的货币大跌，股市跟着暴跌，还出现了严重的通货膨胀，整个社会出现了动荡的症状，让墨西哥这个原本治安就不怎么样的国家变得更加危险。这场危机还诡异地蔓延到了巴西、阿根廷、智利等国家，影响了小半个美洲。 A financial crisis broke out in Mexico in 1994. Over a short period of 3 months during the crisis, Mexico's currency depreciated drastically, the stock market crashed, and severe inflation happened. The society started to show the signs of turmoil, which aggravated the already precarious security situation in Mexico. This crisis also somehow crawled to some countries like Brazil Argentina and Chile, inflicted on nearly half the American continent.危机爆发的1994年墨西哥正好在换总统，可是选举工作进行的相当不和谐，反对党和执政党之间为这事闹的水火不容，还没挨到正式选举的日子，就有一名总统候选人被暗杀身亡。当时的墨西哥政坛因此变得乌云笼罩，谁也不知道选个总统会不会引发更大的冲突，一时间人心有点迷茫和慌张。 Mexico was changing their president when the crisis broke out in 1994, but the election process was rather discordant. The ruling party and the opposition party were at loggerheads over this matter. Even before the official election day arrived, one of the presidential candidates was assassinated. This cast dark clouds over Mexican politics. No one knew whether the presidential elections would lead to more severe conflicts, so quite a lot of uncertainty and anxiety arose among the people.对于墨西哥本地人来说，政坛动荡只是他们艰苦生活的一部分，想躲也没地方躲。但是那些在墨西哥的外国投资者就不一样了，他们可是有退路的，看到政坛动荡和可能引发的危机，他们会未雨绸缪地抛售资产拿着钱暂时离开，等局势明朗了再考虑回来继续玩。这种现象就是所谓的外资撤离。 For the local Mexican people, political upheaval is a part of their difficult lives, from which they cannot hide. But this is not the case for the foreign investors in Mexico, who have other options. In the face of political turmoil and possible crisis triggered by it, they can sell off their assets and save for a rainy day, and not come back until the situation settled down. This phenomenon is known as foreign capital outflow.外资撤离多多少少会造成一些依赖外资的企业倒闭，也会造成外汇储备下降，或者货币市场的波动，进而引起股市的波动，对墨西哥来说从头到脚都是坏处。吸引外资进来常常都要求爷爷告奶奶，但是要赶走外资却有无数种方法，政坛动荡就是最常见的一种。一次总统选举就闹到外资撤离的地步，当时的墨西哥政客们也是太没有大局观念了。 Foreign capital outflow will inevitably cause the closure of some foreign investment reliant companies. It would also lead to the falling of foreign exchange reserves, or fluctuations in the forex market, which in turn can cause fluctuations in the stock market. Totally a chain of bad news for Mexico. Attracting foreign investment often requires a lot, but there are countless ways to get rid of it. Political turmoil is the most common one. A presidential election can lead to the withdrawal of foreign capital, the Mexican politicians at the time were truly lacked of a boarder view. 再说那个时候墨西哥的经济状况也不好，就像它现在这样。当年墨西哥的制造业非常不给力，民众赖以生存的日用品都依赖进口，进口就意味着要花外汇，从美国买就得花美元，从英国买就得花英镑。那么外汇从哪儿来呢？要么借要么自己挣。为了赚取外汇，当时的墨西哥政府招商引资整了一些出口型企业，这些企业的特点是严重依赖外资，而且产品自己人也用不着。 Besides Mexico's economy was in bad shape, as it is now. Manufacturing in Mexico was so weak, that the daily necessities people relied on had to be imported, which meant spending foreign exchange, dollars when from the United States, and pounds when from Britain. So where does the foreign exchange come from? Either borrow it or earn it themself. In order to earn foreign exchange, the then Mexican government attracted investment in a number of export-oriented enterprises, which were characterized by heavy reliance on foreign capital, and their products were not what the people of their own country need.为了筹集外汇，那时候墨西哥政府也对外开放了自家的金融市场，吸引了很多胆大心细的投机者，那些人提着本钱到墨西哥的股市和汇市碰运气。可是这些投资者带来的本钱只是暂时变成了墨西哥的外汇，一旦股市或货币市场有点波动，这些钱会毫不犹豫地逃走，让墨西哥的外汇储备迅速降低，正所谓来得快走得也快，从不考虑墨西哥的感受。 In order to raise foreign exchange, the Mexican government also opened up its financial markets to the outside world, which attracted a lot of bold but cautious speculators, who took their money to Mexico's stock and currency markets to make a fortune. But the capital brought by these investors had only temporarily become Mexico's foreign exchange, once the stock market or currency market fluctuated, these money would leave without hesitation, declining Mexico's foreign exchange reserves sharply, just like easy come and easy go, Mexico's feelings were never taken into their consideration.聊到这儿想必大家已经有点替墨西哥担忧了，因为它来钱的两个渠道都很依赖外资，而多数外资都有强大的祖国可以用来狐假虎威，墨西哥政府不能拿它们怎么样，只能小心伺候着给它们营造舒适的经营环境，让它们尽可能长期留在本国。可是当时的墨西哥令人担忧的还不止是外资的不安全，还有它那个强大的邻居美国。 By this point you may be a little worried about Mexico, because the two of its fund channels heavily relied on foreign capital. However most of foreign capitals were backed up by their strong motherlands, the Mexican government could not do much about them, but to delicately build a sound business environment instead, so that to keep them inside the country as long as possible. However it was not only the insecurity of foreign investment that worried Mexico, but also its powerful neighbor the US.谁做了美国的邻居，都会不可救药地依赖美国，墨西哥从过去到现在一直这样依赖着。1994年前后美国经济发展的特别好，市场上流通的美元有点多。这流动性一旦过剩，要么是形成通货膨胀导致物价上涨，要么是出现炒作形成泡沫经济，这都不是什么好事儿。为了将这些危机消灭在萌芽状态，美联储下重手连着6次提高了存款准备金率。 Anyone being the neighbor of the United States, would be hopelessly dependent on the United States, and Mexico has always been so. The US economy was doing particularly well around 1994, and there were a little more dollars in circulation. Once the liquidity is in excess, it would either form inflation that cause price hiking, or speculation that lead to a bubble economy, none of which could be a good thing. In order to eliminate these crises as they arose, the Fed had raised the deposit reserve ratio by six times.美联储相当于美国的央行，央行提高了银行在它那儿的存款利率，普通银行也就被迫提高了自己的存款利率。这种时候储户们掐指一算就发现，手里的闲钱还是存银行里吃利息划算，起码不用操心风险问题。于是在1994年那个时候，全世界的美元都在心照不宣地向美国回流，那些投入墨西哥股市的美元也不例外。有了美国的高利率吸引和墨西哥政坛危机的逼迫，墨西哥外资流出就有了双倍的动力。 The Fed can be seen as the central bank of the US, when the central bank raised the deposit rates for banks, the commercial banks were forced to raise that of theirs too. At this time the depositors all found out that, it was a good deal to keep the spare money in the banks to have the interest accrued on it, at least with no worrying about risks. So in 1994, all the dollars in the world knowingly were flowing back to the US, including those invested in the Mexican stock market. Due to the attraction of high interest rates in the US and the pressure of political crisis in Mexico, the outflows of Mexico's foreign capital got doubled.在金融危机正式爆发之前，墨西哥政府面临的最大问题便是外汇严重短缺。到底是提高赚外汇的能力还是提高外汇的逃离难度呢？新总统塞迪略上台后选择了前者。塞迪略的想法是让墨西哥比索多少贬值一些，这样既有利于降低进口的规模，也有利于出口创汇，出口上去了赚的美元就多了，运气好说不定还能补上外汇流失的缺口。 Before its financial crisis actually broke out, the biggest issue the Mexican government had to tackle was the desperate shortage of foreign exchange. So should they enhance the ability of earning foreign currency or raise the bar of currency flowing out? The president of Mexico Zedillo chose the former when he came into power. What he planned was to depreciate Mexican pesos a little, which would not only help to downscale its imports, but also be beneficial for exports so as to earn more foreign exchanges, more exports mean more dollars coming in, and this plan might be able to make up for the shortage of foreign currency if lucky.经过了一番准备后，塞迪略打发人宣布墨西哥比索对美元汇率的浮动范围扩大15%。这个消息就意味着比索比过去有了更大的贬值空间。消息一放出来，整个墨西哥市场上的投资者都慌了，他们觉得这只是个开始，比索对美元还会继续贬值下去，自己手里的比索将会越来越不值钱。 After some preparations, Zedillo had someone announced that the Mexican peso's fluctuating range against dollars expanded to 15%, which insinuated peso got a broader space to depreciate. As soon as the announcement was out, it stirred up the whole Mexican investment market, people thought that it's just a beginning, and the rate of pesos against dollars would keep depreciating, which would only make their owned pesos counting for less. 于是外国投资者们闻风而动，争先恐后把手里的比索兑换成美元，接着把美元存进美国的银行，只有这两步都完成了，才会有落袋为安的踏实感。外资的抛售和撤离迅速引发了市场的效仿，连墨西哥当地人也对自家货币失去了信心，纷纷跑到窗口兑换美元。当所有人一起卖一种东西的时候，那种东西只会严重地供过于求，而且越来越廉价。 Therefore foreign investors answered the call immediately, by rushing to exchange pesos to dollars, and then saved them in the American banks, only when they finished the aforementioned two steps, would they feel a sense of security. The underselling and withdrawals of oversea capitals soon triggered a series of negative imitations, even the local Mexicans lost confidence in their own currency, and all crowded to the bank counter to convert peso into dollar. When everyone sells the same thing, will only lead to a severe over-supply, and result in its price dropping. 墨西哥政府预想的15%浮动范围不到3天就被突破，塞迪略政府一开始还试图抢救一下，咬咬牙拿出压箱底的美元给投资者兑换，幻想着营造一种“美元有的是，大家不用慌”的气氛。可是政府手里有多少余粮大家心里还是有数的，结果是救市的那点美元很快被人抢光，走投无路的墨西哥政府3天后无奈地宣布比索对美元自由浮动，一切就听天由命吧。 The 15% range that the Mexican government had envisioned was breached in less than 3 days. The Zedillo administration initially tried to salvage it, by offering their reserved dollars to investors, in the hope to create an atmosphere of "the dollar supply is sufficient, no one needs to be panic". But everyone had an idea on how much reserves the government had. The result of bailout was that the dollars were snapped up very shortly. Three days later the Mexican government announced that peso would float freely against dollar, leaving the things to fate.消息宣布后墨西哥比索贬得一塌糊涂，3天之后就暴跌了42%，美元更是以恐怖的速度外逃，资金从哪个领域流出，哪个领域就要倒大霉。因为此前进入墨西哥股市的钱最多，这一波逃离就像抽走了股市的血液一样，导致股价暴跌，从12月20号到3月初，股市整个跌去了48%。在这三个多月里，心惊肉跳的股民纷纷割肉止损，加剧了股价的下跌，于是墨西哥的股市就这样朝着崩溃的方向绝尘而去。 Mexican peso was down to hell once the news was announced. In three days it dropped 42%. Dollar also fled at a terrifying rate. Which area the money fled from, which area would be in bad luck. Since Mexican stock market attracted most of the foreign capitals, the fleeing was like taking the blood out of the market, causing the stock prices to plummet. From December 20 to the early March, the stock market fell 48%. In more than three months, nervous investors had to stop their losses by closing positions, which further exacerbated the decline of the stock price. So in this way Mexican stock market headed down to the ground.话说阿根廷、巴西、智利等国家和墨西哥的物理距离相当遥远，但是这些国家的股市居然也在同一时刻跟着暴跌。那是什么东西跨越了万水千山，让暴跌从北半球蔓延到南半球了呢？是人心！被墨西哥市场吓到的投资者们凑一起互诉衷肠，他们发现南美洲部分国家的经济状况和墨西哥有几分相似，既然墨西哥出了大事儿，那这些国家会不会也跟着出事儿呢？
When talking about Argentina Brazil or Chile you can realize they are quite far away from Mexico. But the stock markets in these countries followed to slump at the same time. What crossed mountains and oceans, spread the slumping from the northern to the southern hemisphere? That was the popular feeling. When the investors spooked by the Mexican market gathered together, they found that the economies in parts of the South America were somewhat similar to Mexico's. Now that something was going wrong in Mexico, were these countries going to do the same?出不出事很难预测，不过早点把钱拿出来存到美国银行肯定是保值的，早跑说不定还能保本获利，跑晚了就怕血本无归。想到这儿胆小的投资者们开始从南美国家撤资逃离，外资的抛售和撤离引发了更多的效仿，导致同样的股市暴跌和经济动荡在这些地方原样上演，这几个南美国家就这样无辜躺枪了。 It's hard to predict whether something would go wrong or not, but draw their money out earlier and save it in the US banks surely can keep its value, running away earlier might break even or make a profit, while running late might lose all of their money. Thinking about this those timid investors started fleeing the South American countries, the underselling and withdrawals of foreign capital led to more copycats, therefore the same stock market crash and economic turmoil played out in these places, these Southern American countries were thus implicated.不过躺枪者受到的伤害还算有限，最大的受害人依然是发源地墨西哥。股市暴跌让散户们损失巨大，比这个更惨的是他们的日常生活也难以为继。由于外资逃离的太厉害，导致墨西哥缺钱进口日用品，各种东西因为匮乏开始涨价。再说比索的抛售又导致了严重的流动性过剩，这就从货币层面加剧了通货膨胀，物价就涨的更厉害了。 But the damage to those implicated was limited, biggest victim was still the source region Mexico. Retail investors suffered a lot by the stock market crash, worse than that was their daily lives couldn't be sustained. Since too much foreign capital fled away, Mexico was short of money to import daily necessities, prices of commodities began to rise because of scarcity. Moreover the underselling of Peso had led to severe excess liquidity, which deteriorated inflation at the monetary level, price rose even higher. 要扭转眼前的糟糕局面，墨西哥政府需要大笔的钱。有了钱就可以拿一部分进口日用品给超市补货，降低物价保证普通人的正常生活；还可以拿一部分投入金融市场，稳定比索让它不要再跌。再说既然比索已经跌成这幅熊样，那么对于外资来说墨西哥的商品都变成了白菜价，这可是出口的好时机，所以钱还可以拿一部分出来恢复出口制造业。 In order to turn around this terrible situation, the Mexican government needed a huge amount of money, as they could take part of those money to import necessities for supermarket replenishment, to lower commodity price and ensure the normal life of ordinary people; they could also put some of those money into financial market, to stabilize Peso and stop it from slumping again. Since the value of Peso had nearly fallen to its bottom, then for foreign investors the prices of Mexican goods were very competitive, this was a good time to export, so part of the money could also be used to revive export manufacturing.后来在国际货币基金组织和美国的帮助下，墨西哥政府果然筹到了500多亿美元。当这些钱被投下去以后，市场终于逐渐稳定，墨西哥人的生活也慢慢回归了正常，那些唯利是图的外来投资者们再次提着钱过来投资，一切又恢复了往日的繁荣。但代价是墨西哥政府为了解决这次危机欠下了几百亿美元的巨额外债。 Later with the help of IMF and the US, the Mexican government managed to raise more than 50 billion US dollars. When the money was invested, the market got stabilized finally, and Mexicans' lives returned to normal gradually, thus mercenary overseas investors came back to invest in Mexico, and the market was booming again. But the price is that the Mexican government has owed several tens of billions of dollars in solving the crisis.我们经常说一个国家要“独立自主”，这四个字包含了太多的东西。从墨西哥鲜血淋漓的经历我们应该意识到，一定要有自己健全的制造业，起码要做到普通的日用品不依赖进口。因为依赖进口意味着依赖外汇，依赖外汇又会迫使自己依赖外来投资者和出口型制造业，一个不小心外资就会逃离，从而让自己很多领域一起倒霉。 We often say that a country should be "independent", and that term means a lot. We can learn from the bloody experience of Mexico, that a country must have a sound manufacturing industry of his own, at least that the supply of commodities is not depending on importation. Because a country relying on imports means that it has to rely on foreign exchange, which will force that country to rely on foreign investments and export-oriented manufacturing, once foreign capital flees facing with economic fluctuation, many industries will be trapped subsequently.从墨西哥鲜血淋漓的经历中还应该意识到，一个国家对外来资本要有合理的管理规矩，尤其要防止它们快进快出引起羊群效应，不然原本好好的日子就会被破坏，吃瓜群众们还没回过神来，资产已经严重缩水内心开始恐慌，这对整个社会的稳定非常有害。 We can also learn a lesson from Mexico that, a country should impose reasonable regulation on foreign investments, especially hot money from foreign investors, otherwise the stable economic circumstance will be destructed, before the public gets aware, their assets will already have shrunk seriously which will cause public panic, and also will be very dangerous to the stability of the whole society.从墨西哥鲜血淋漓的经历中我们还看到了管控信息的重要性，市场会因为各种各样的有利因素艰难地变好，但也会因为一条小道消息一夜崩溃。想要恢复一个已经崩溃了的市场有时候并不难，但是会花掉很多时间，也会花掉大笔的金钱，这也是有些国家欠下巨额外债的原因。 We also see the importance of information management from the example of Mexico, as the market can struggle to recover from many favorable factors, but it can also crash down overnight due to just one word on the street. It is not quite difficult to recover a crashed market, but it will cost a lot of time, besides a lot of money, and that is why some countries have owed huge foreign debts.
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