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1 导读 感谢小兔提供的思维导图 小兔，女，外企打工仔，设技爱好者 2 听力|精读|翻译|词组  The long hot summer 漫长而炎热的夏季 英文部分选自经济学人Science and technology版块 Climate change 气候变化 The long hot summer 漫长而炎热的夏季 Greece is burning, Japan is in a state of emergency. Heat is causing problems across the world and, worryingly, such weather events may become more common 希腊火日炙人，日本的情况也紧急。高温天气正在世界各地引发各种问题，令人担忧的是，这些气候问题很有可能会愈发普遍。 SODANKYLA, a town in Finnish Lapland just north of the Arctic Circle, boasts an average annual temperature a little below freezing. Residents eagerly await the brief spell in July when the region enjoys something akin to summer. This year they may have wished for a bit less of it. On July 18th thermometers showed 32.1°C (89.8°F), which is 12°C warmer than typical for the month and the highest since records began in 1908. But Sodankyla is not the only place that is sizzling. 索丹屈莱是一个位于芬兰拉普兰区的小镇，恰好坐落于北极圈以北，以其年均气温略低于零点为荣。当地居民总是对七月的短暂时光迫不及待，那时他们便可以享受近似于夏天的气候。今年，他们可能希望少一些这样的夏日时光。7月18日，温度计显示32.1°C (89.8°F)，这高于往年同期12°C，并打破了自1908年以来的历史高温记录。然而，并非只有索丹屈莱赤日如此炎炎。 Wildfires have killed at least 80 people near Athens. Sweden has suffered a rash of forest fires, sparked by unusually hot and dry weather. Britain and the Netherlands look more parched than they did in 1976, one of the driest summers on record. Some 80,000 hectares of forest are burning in Siberia. Japan has declared its heatwave to be a natural disaster. On the night of July 7th, the temperature in downtown Los Angeles did not drop below 26.1°C. That seems positively nippy compared with Quriyat in Oman, which recorded a 24-hour minimum temperature of 42.6°C a few days earlier. 在雅典附近，火灾已经夺走近80人的生命。瑞典遭遇了一连串因天气异常燥热引起的森林火灾。英国和荷兰今年夏天的炎热程度看起来要比1976年（史上最干燥夏天之一）更甚一筹。西伯利亚约80,000公顷的森林正燃起熊熊大火。日本宣布此次高温为自然灾害。7月7日晚，洛杉矶市中心的气温没有低过26.1°C，这温度和阿曼古利亚特（Ouriyat）相比似乎绝对称得上寒冷。前几天，古利亚特记录显示日最低温为42.6°C。 Heatwaves bring problems, especially in the developing world. Crops are ravaged, food spoils and workers become less productive. Studies have linked rising temperatures to violent crime and civil strife. And heat can kill on its own. In 2003 more than 70,000 Europeans may have died as a direct result of an infernal summer. 高温天气带来许多问题，尤其是在发展中国家。庄稼被毁，食物变质，工人工作效率变低。研究将持续高温与暴力犯罪、国内动乱联系起来。高温本身也能致死。2003年，那个恶魔般的夏天可能直接造成了七万多欧洲人的死亡。 That was seen as a once-a-millennium heatwave at the time. By comparison, notes Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, outside of northern Europe the summer of 2018 looks unremarkable, so far, in terms of temperature. The Netherlands, for instance, can expect scorchers every couple of years. Except, he adds, a century ago that might have been once every 20 years. A few years back, a team led by Peter Stott of Britain’s Met Office calculated that, by 2012, summers like the one in 2003 would be expected to occur not every 1,000 years but every 127. 当时被人们认为是千年不遇的热浪。相比之下，荷兰皇家气象研究所高级研究员吉尔特·扬·范·奥尔登伯格（Geert Jan van Oldenborgh）注意到，至今就气温而言，2018年北欧地区以外的夏季看起来并不惹人注意。比如，荷兰预计每两年就会遭遇一次高温天气。另外，奥尔登伯格还说，一个世纪前荷兰的高温周期可能是二十年。前几年，由英国气象局（Britain’s Met Office）的彼得斯托特（Peter Stott）带领的团队预测，到2012年，类似于2003年的夏季每127年将会发生一次，而不再是千年一遇。 Hot times ahead 高温时代提前来临 No consequence of global warming is as self-evident as higher temperatures. Earth is roughly 1°C hotter today than it was before humanity started belching greenhouse gases into the atmosphere during the Industrial Revolution. If this so-called thermodynamic effect were all there was to it, temperatures now considered unusually hot would become more typical and those regarded as uncommonly cold, uncommoner still. But climate being a complicated thing, there is more to it. 全球变暖的后果不像高温那么显而易见。工业革命时代，人类开始向大气层排放温室气体之前，那时候的地球气温比现在大约低1°C。如果热力效应对地球气候的影响仅止于此，那么现在的异常高温天气将会变得常态化，异常低温仍会更罕见。但是，气候是一个复杂体，受制于更多影响因素。 注释： That's all (that)there is to it.事情就是如此而已。这是一个固定用法，不宜逐字翻译。句中all是先行词，that是关系代词，引导定语从句there is to it修饰all，在定语从句中that作表语，即为there is (that) to it. https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/652789908497926565 Weather patterns can change because the colder poles warm faster than balmier lower latitudes. As the thermal difference between the two diminishes, so does the velocity of the jet stream, a westerly wind which blows at an altitude of around 10km. That means the weather it carries can stay in place for longer. Sometimes, it offsets the thermodynamic effects, leading to cooler temperatures than might be expected. Often, it amplifies them. 严寒的两极地区要比温暖宜人的低纬度地区气候更快变暖，因而气候模式会产生变化。随着两者之间的温差减小，这种盛行在海拔10km左右的西风急流的流速也会随之下降。这意味着天气可以更长时间地保持在一个温度。有时，它会抵消温室效应，导致比预期更为寒冷的天气。通常，它会放大这种效应。 注释： 1.急流（the jet stream）：大气中一股强而窄的气流带，急流的水平长度达上万公里，宽数百公里，厚几公里。急流中心的长轴称为急流轴，它近于水平分布。急流中心最大风速在对流层的上部必须大于或等于30米/秒，它的风速水平切变量级为每100公里5米/秒，垂直量级为每公里5-10米/秒。按急流出现的高度不同，一般可分为高空急流和低空急流。 stay in place: 留在原地 栗子：Of course, it takes all the running you can do to stay in place. 当然, 用尽你的力气去跑才能维持在原地. When and by how much is a matter of hot debate among climate scientists. It is hard to pin any particular heatwave, drought or flood on the effects of man-made pollution. Freak events happen; the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth was 56.7°C in Death Valley, California, but that was on July 10th 1913, when concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were much lower. 但是气候学家对于气温何时升高以及升温幅度争执不下。很难把任一特定的热浪干旱或洪水归咎于人为污染。反常天气时有发生；地球上所记录的最高温度56.7°C，发生在加利福尼亚的死亡之谷，但那是1913年7月10日，当时大气中的二氧化碳浓度相当低。 By using clever statistics to compare the climate’s actual behaviour with computer simulations of how it might have behaved in the absence of human activity, researchers can calculate how mankind has made a particular weather event more likely. The first such study, co-authored by Dr Stott in 2004, found that the likelihood of the 2003 European summer had doubled as a result of human activity. Since then similar “event attribution” research has burgeoned. A year ago Carbon Brief, a web portal, identified a total of 138 peer-reviewed papers in the field, covering 144 weather events. Of 48 heatwaves, 41 contained humankind’s imprint in the data. 借助智能的统计数据，将气候的实际变化状况与无人类行为干预的电脑模拟气候状况进行比较，研究人员更有可能测算出人类的行为怎样导致某一特定气候现象的产生。2004年由斯托特教授担任联合作者发表的首份此类研究报告指出，人类活动导致出现2003年欧洲酷夏气候的可能性增加了一倍。自那以后，类似的“因素分析法”研究迅速发展。一年前， “碳简报”网站（Carbon Brief） 上共刊登了138篇该领域的同行评论论文，包含144起气候事件，其中的48起高温事件中，数据显示有41起存在人类的推波助澜。 More studies have appeared since then. World Weather Attribution, a website run by Dr van Oldenborgh and Friederike Otto of Oxford University, posts a new one practically every month. Besides scrutinising past weather, many of the studies look ahead—in particular at how the likelihood of future extreme events changes depending on how seriously countries take their commitment in Paris in 2015 to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (and better yet, to no more than 1.5°C). 自此更多的研究涌现。WWA（World Weather Attribution）网站几乎每月都会刊登一篇新文章。该网站由牛津大学的范·奥尔登伯格博士和弗里德莱克·奥托博士（Friederike Otto）运营，除了研究过去的天气，也预测未来变化。2015年的巴黎协定把全球温升目标控制在较工业革命前上升2°C以内（最好不超过1.5°C），研究人员尤其致力于研究各国政府履行承诺的程度会对未来极端天气变化的可能性产生怎样的影响。 The picture that emerges is bleak. One study, published in June by Andrew King of the University of Melbourne and his colleagues, found that the number of Europeans who can expect to witness a temperature above the current record, wherever they happen to live, would double from 45m today to 90m if the planet warmed by another 0.5°C or so on top of the 1°C since the 1880s. If, instead of 0.5°C, it warmed by 1°C, the figure would rise to 163m. 现状却很黯淡。墨尔本大学的安德鲁·金（Andrew King）与同事于6月发表的一项研究结果表明，自19世纪80年代以来地球温度若从已经升高的1℃上再升高0.5℃，那么那些无论身处何方、见证气温突破记录的欧洲人的数量会从目前的4500万翻倍至9000万；如果温度升高不是0.5℃，而是1℃，这一人数将会达到1亿6300万人。 Greece smoulders 焖锅中的希腊 This looks even more alarming if you factor in humidity. Human beings can tolerate heat with sweat, which evaporates and cools the skin. That is why a dry 50°C can feel less stifling than a muggy 30°C. If the wet-bulb temperature (equivalent to that recorded by a thermometer wrapped in a moist towel) exceeds 35°C, even a fit, healthy youngster lounging naked in the shade next to a fan could die in six hours. 如考虑湿度因素，情形会更加忧心。人类可通过汗水蒸发降低体表温度来忍受高温，这也就是为什么处在干燥的50℃环境不会比闷热潮湿的30℃更令人窒息沉闷。如果湿球温度（相当于用湿毛巾裹住温度计时所记录的温度）超过35℃，就算是一个身形健硕、身体健康的年轻人吹着风扇赤身于阴凉处，也会在6小时内死亡。 注释： *湿球温度：（绝热饱和温度）是指在绝热条件下，大量的水与有限的湿空气接触，水蒸发所需的潜热完全来自于湿空气温度降低所放出的显热，当系统中空气达饱和状态且系统达到热平衡时系统的温度。湿球温度就是当前环境仅通过蒸发水分所能达到的最低温度。热力学湿球温度也称绝热饱和温度。——来源 百度百科 At present, wet-bulb temperatures seldom exceed 31°C. In 2016 Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute for Technology found that if carbon emissions continue unabated, several cities in the Persian Gulf, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, could exceed wet-bulb levels of 35°C by the end of the century. A follow-up study reckoned that, by 2100, parts of South Asia, which is much more populous than the sheikhdoms and a lot poorer, could suffer a wet-bulb level of 34.2°C every 25 years. 目前，全球范围内湿球温度很少超过31℃。但在2016年，洛约拉马利蒙特大学（Loyola Marymount）杰里米·帕尔（Jeremy Pal）和麻省理工学院的弗法提·埃尔塔西尔（Flfatih Eltahir）发现，若全球碳排放继续有增无减，包括阿布扎比和迪拜在内的几个波斯湾城市，其湿球温度在本世纪末将有可能超过35℃。 一项后续研究也表明，至2100年，比中东酋长国人口更加稠密且贫穷的部分南亚地区可能每25年就会经受一次湿球温度高达34.5℃的炙热考验。 The effects could be devastating. The World Bank has warned that rising temperatures and changing monsoons could cost India 2.8% of GDP per person by 2050 and affect the living standards of 600m Indians in areas identified as hot spots. The global cost of productivity lost to heat has been estimated at $2trn by 2030. 以上影响带来的后果可能是灾难性的。世界银行警告称，到2050年，持续升温以及雨季的改变将使印度人均GDP损失2.8%，并影响到居住在火炉地区6亿印度人的生活。到2030年，高温造成的全球产能损失将达到约2万亿美元。 The toll on human lives is hard to imagine. But at least people can learn from past mistakes. Thanks to better government responses, particularly in care for the elderly, in 2012 Europe survived a summer hotter still than 2003 with fewer casualties. As Indians get richer more will be able to afford air-conditioning; even those in shantytowns can paint their corrugated-iron roofs white to reflect sunlight. If only the world could take in a similar lesson about the importance of stopping climate change in the first place. 高温天气对人类生活的影响难以想象，但至少人们可以从过去的经验中吸取教训。多亏政府采取了更好的应对措施，尤其注重对老年人健康状况的投入，欧洲以甚微的伤亡人数挺过了2012年的夏天，当时气温高于2003年同期。随着印度人越来越富裕，更多的人将有能力负担空调系统；甚至居住在棚户区的居民也能在波纹铁皮的屋顶刷上一层白油漆，来反射太阳光降低室温。要是世界一开始就能明白阻止气候变化的重要性就好了！ 翻译组： Frank，男，小硕，经济学人爱好者 Nikolai，男，小硕, science追随者 Muyi，文产小研，经济学人初段读者 Minjia，女，广告策划，经济学人读者 Helga，女，笔译民工，经济学人爱好者 校核组： Li Xia, 女， HR, 经济学人发烧友 Jasmine， 女 ，税收专业大三学生， 经济学人粉丝 3 观点|评论|思考 本次观点由Nikolai独家奉献 Nikolai，男，小硕, science追随者 有人可能会说，全球变暖跟我们这些小老百姓有什么关系。北极冰川融化，欧洲热死了人，日本气温连续好几天四十度，这些事情又没有发生在中国，跟我们有什么相干？没错，这些事件无一发生在国内。可是，当你望着一到夏天家里开着空调，电费噌噌往上涨；当你发现自己出了太阳便无法出门，打开家门就是阵阵热浪冲上面门；当你对医生打来电话，说你的亲人朋友中暑了习以为常；当你小时候嬉戏的池塘被烤得干裂，当夏季稻因高温减产而闹饥荒的时候，再说什么我们要阻止全球变暖，就已经太迟了。 全球变暖不只是大人物们应该讨论的问题。作为共享地球这一家园的众多生灵之一，任何一个人类都有责任维护它的美丽。是的，我们也许不能扬手就说我要建一个温室气体处理站，也不能拍下脑袋就决定要把火电厂拆了换成水电厂。但是，哪怕仅仅是多坐一趟公交车，把空调温度稍微往上抬两度，你也在为保护地球做贡献。 如果不想让世界银行关于我们未来的预言成真，那就请大家从现在起步，控制自己的碳排放。我们只有一个地球，请珍爱所有人共同的母亲！ 4 愿景 小组 现有一经济学人大群,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : foxwulihua。 |
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