Vale S.A. VALE recently trimmed its guidance range for iron ore production to 315-320 million tons (Mt) from the prior expectation of 315-335 Mt. The company had produced 300.4 Mt of iron ore in 2020. For 2022, the company anticipates iron ore production between 320 Mt and 335 Mt. Last month, Rio Tinto announced that it now expects to ship iron ore between 320 Mt and 325 Mt in 2021, down from the previous range of 325 Mt to 340 Mt due to a tighter labor market in Western Australia that led to delay in the completion of a new greenfield mine at Gudai-Darri and the Robe Valley brownfield mine replacement project. The company expects iron ore capacity at 345-360 Mtpy (million tons per year) in the medium term. Fortescue Metals Group FSUGY expects iron ore shipments of 180-185 Mt in fiscal 2022. The company had reported record shipments of 182.2 Mt in fiscal 2021. Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment Research Shares of Vale have fallen 25.8% so far this year compared with the industry’s decline of 26.2%. This is primarily due to the plunge in iron ore prices due to the intensified curbs on steel production in China that impacted demand for iron ore. Share price of other iron ore miners like Fortescue Metals, Rio and BHP have slumped 29.8%, 16.4% and 14.4%, year to date, respectively. However, iron ore prices have recently picked up on prospects of improving demand in China. China’s steel mills are expected to increase production as some companies completed crude steel output reduction targets. China’s property sector is showing signs of improvement. The lowered production targets from the iron ore miners could lead to supply concerns and lend some support to iron ore prices. Vale, Rio and Fortescue currently carry a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), while BHP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s fiscal 2021 earnings has gone down 14% over the past 30 days. It is currently pegged at $3.94, suggesting growth of 86.7% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto’s fiscal 2021 earnings is currently pegged at $13.07, indicating an improvement of 69.7% year over year. The estimate has gone down 3% over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fortescue’s ongoing fiscal earnings has gone down 25% over the past 60 days to $2.97. It suggests a decline of 55.5% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BHP’s ongoing fiscal earnings has been revised downward by 6% over the past 60 days to $7.05. It suggests a 4.6% growth year over year. |
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