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【洞见】张蕴岭:维护中韩共同利益

 颐源书屋 2022-08-27 发布于云南

本文大约3000字,读完约8分钟

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中国和韩国应加强协商与协调,共同维护供应链和地区稳定。中韩虽然政治制度不同,但双方已启动战略伙伴关系下的高级别战略对话、外交安全对话、政党对话等机制,就双边、地区和世界事务进行交流磋商。如何规划和创造未来,是中韩两国共同面临的问题。构建面向未来的中韩关系面临一些挑战和困难。
本文作者系盘古智库顾问、山东大学国际问题研究院院长张蕴岭,文章来源于《中国日报》2022年8月24日,“山大国际观察”微信公众号。





中国和韩国应加强协商与协调,共同维护供应链和地区稳定。

冷战结束后,中韩两国抓住机遇,以高瞻远瞩的大局观迅速实现关系正常化。中韩建交30年来,两国关系全面快速发展。

两国经贸关系全面快速发展。目前,中国是韩国第一大贸易伙伴,韩国是中国第三大贸易伙伴。两国通过投资、生产、贸易和服务,形成了深厚的经济联系和发展互动。两国在生产、技术、市场等方面优势互补,大大拓展了双边经贸关系的发展空间。中韩自贸协定的签署为两国经贸关系的深化提供了良好的法治环境。双方在投资、金融、新能源、电信、交通、科技开发等领域签署了大量合作协议,建立了多领域、多层次合作的供应链体系。

在政治关系方面,双方本着共识、互利、互信的原则,积极推动两国关系的发展和改善,从合作伙伴关系到全面合作伙伴关系,再到战略合作伙伴关系,合作不断深化。两国建立战略伙伴关系确实是一个突破性的发展。中韩虽然政治制度不同,但双方已启动战略伙伴关系下的高级别战略对话、外交安全对话、政党对话等机制,就双边、地区和世界事务进行交流磋商。面对朝鲜半岛以及东北亚和亚太地区的复杂局势,两国坚持沟通协商,寻求解决方案。当然,由于两国安全利益的差异,也会产生冲突。例如,韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统(萨德),导致两国关系紧张。但总的来说,两国政治关系总体上保持了稳定与合作。

在社会文化领域,中韩人员交流大幅增长。在新冠疫情爆发之前,两国人员往来人数每年超过1000万人次,高峰时超过1300万人次。双方都把对方视为最重要的旅游目的地。中国赴韩旅游人数逐年增加,疫情爆发前曾达到800多万人次。尤为重要的是,中韩两国留学人数大幅增加,互为对方最大的留学生来源国。人员交流的大幅增加有助于增进两国人民的相互了解,特别是大量的留学生为两国关系的长期发展奠定了基础。

如何规划和创造未来,是中韩两国共同面临的问题。构建面向未来的中韩关系面临一些挑战和困难。

在横向劳动分工的基础上发展竞争性合作十分有必要。在先进科技领域,特别是在半导体、通信和数字经济领域,中韩双方应充分发挥各自优势,共建发展新基础。然而,实现这一点并不容易。例如,韩国对中方的担忧与日俱增,对同中国发展密切的经济技术合作持谨慎态度。特别是美国正在加强与中国的全面战略竞争,大力推动供应链重构,构建针对中国的半导体联盟和技术联盟。韩国作为美国的盟友,很有可能从自身利益出发,参与其中。然而,深化经贸关系符合双方的现实和长远利益。无论是“分裂”还是“部分脱钩”,都将对韩国造成严重损害,削弱两国合作和发展的基础。因此,有必要采取切实有效的合作措施,保持交叉供应链的稳定运行。近日,两国外长举行会晤,明确表示维护供应链稳定非常重要。

战略伙伴关系最重要的内涵是合作。中韩两国在维护朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区稳定方面拥有共同利益。朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区的战略、安全、国家关系问题成因复杂,并不存在简单的、一劳永逸的解决办法。尽管朝鲜和韩国在发展关系方面取得了很多进展,但朝鲜拥有核武器以及韩国执政党交替下对朝政策的变化,使半岛局势充满变数。在美国与中国开展全面战略竞争的背景下,韩国参与美国的战略安排,缩小了其战略选择范围,在加强美韩同盟与维护中韩关系稳定之间的作出选择的难度日益加大。韩国新政府强调中韩之间要相互尊重、平等互利。的确,重视和照顾对方的重要利益和诉求,通过协商协调解决分歧,避免冲突加剧,是构建战略伙伴关系的基础。中韩之间存在着多重且敏感的经济、政治、安全、社会等问题。关键是要在相互信任的基础上进行沟通和谈判。

加强中韩思想文化交流,加深两国人民的了解至关重要。当下一个令人担忧的趋势是,由于种种原因,两国之间的认识和理解水平急剧下降。在网络媒体时代,舆论导向的变化非常大、非常快,有时甚至难以控制。背后的原因很复杂。新形势下,两国应寻求新的合作方式,充分发挥网络媒体对增进两国社会了解和认同方面的积极作用。加强教育交流与合作是面向未来的事业,我们应该构建可持续的教育合作,建立合作教育基金,促进大学间的课程共建,共同培养高等人才。为此,我们需要做更多有效的工作。


- English Version -

China and the ROK should resort to consultation and coordination to maintain their supply chains and regional stability

After the end of the Cold War, China and the Republic of Korea seized the opportunity and quickly normalized relations with forward-looking thinking in big-picture terms. In the 30 years since the establishment of bilateral diplomatic ties, the relationship between China and the ROK has achieved rapid and comprehensive development.

Bilateral economic and trade relations have developed rapidly across the board. Today, China is the ROK's largest trading partner, and the ROK is China's third-largest trading partner. Through investment, production, trade and services, the two countries have formed deep-rooted economic links and development interactions. The two countries have complementary advantages in production, technology and markets, greatly expanding the space for the development of bilateral economic and trade relations. The signing of the free trade agreement between China and the ROK provided a good rules-based environment for the deepening economic relations. The two sides have thus signed a good deal of cooperation agreements in investment, finance, new energy, telecommunications, transportation and technology development, establishing a supply chain system with multi-field and multilevel cooperation.

In terms of political relations, based on consensus, mutual benefit and mutual trust, the two countries have actively promoted the development and improvement of bilateral relations, from a cooperative partnership and then comprehensive cooperative partnership, to strategic cooperative partnership, steadily deepening their cooperation. The establishment of the strategic partnership between the two countries is indeed a breakthrough development. Although China and the ROK have different political systems, the two sides have launched a high-level strategic dialogue, diplomatic and security dialogue, political party dialogue and other mechanisms under the strategic partnership to conduct exchanges and consultations on bilateral, regional and world affairs. Faced with the complex situation on the Korean Peninsula, and in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, the two countries have insisted on communication and consultation to try and find a solution. Of course, due to the differences in the security interests of the two countries, conflicts will also arise. For example, the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense in the ROK caused tension between the two countries. But in general, the political relations between the two countries have maintained overall stability and cooperation.

In social and cultural aspects, personnel exchanges between the two countries have grown substantially. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were more than 10 million visits between the two countries every year, with a peak of more than 13 million visits a year. Tourists from both sides regard each other as the most important place to visit. The number of Chinese tourists traveling to the ROK has increased year by year, reaching more than 8 million at the peak prior to the pandemic. What is particularly important is that the number of students studying in each other's country has increased significantly, and both countries have become each other's largest group of students studying abroad. The substantial increase in personnel exchanges has helped the people of both countries understand each other. In particular, a large number of international students will lay the foundation for the long-term development of the two countries in the future.

How to plan and create the future is a common issue for China and the ROK.Building a future-oriented China-ROK relationship faces some challenges and difficulties.

It is necessary to develop competitive cooperation based on the horizontal division of labor. In the field of advanced technology, especially in the fields of semiconductors, communications and digital economy, the two sides should make full use of the advantages of the two countries, and work together to build a new foundation for common development. However, achieving this will not be easy. For example, the ROK is increasingly worried about China and is wary of developing close economic and technological cooperation with China. In particular, the United States is intensifying its comprehensive strategic competition with China and vigorously promoting the reconstruction of supply chains and the forming of semiconductor alliances and technology alliances targeting China. As an ally of the US, and also based on its own interests, the ROK will be likely to participate in these endeavors. Yet deepening economic relations is in the real and long-term interests of both sides. Whether it is disintegration or partial decoupling, it will cause serious damage to the ROK and weaken the basis for the development of cooperation between the two countries. Therefore, it is necessary to take practical and effective cooperative measures to maintain the stable operation of the intersecting supply chains. Recently, the foreign ministers of the two countries met and made it clear that it is very important to maintain the stability of supply chains.

The most important meaning of the strategic partnership is cooperation. The two countries share a common interest in maintaining the stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. Given that the issues of strategy, security and interstate relations on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia have complex causes, there is no simple or once-and-for-all solution. Although the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the ROK have made a lot of progress in developing relations, the DPRK's nuclear weapons and the ROK's changing policies toward the DPRK by alternating ruling parties make the situation on the peninsula full of variables. Under the circumstance that the US implements comprehensive strategic competition with China, the ROK's participation in the US' strategic arrangements narrows its strategic choices, and it becomes more difficult to choose between strengthening the US-ROK alliance and maintaining the stability of China-ROK relations. The new ROK government emphasizes mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit between China and the ROK. Indeed, paying attention to and accommodating the important interests and appeals of the other party, and resolving differences through consultation and coordination to avoid the intensification of conflicts are the basis for building a strategic partnership. There are multiple and sensitive economic, political, security and social issues between China and the ROK.The key is to communicate and negotiate based on mutual trust.

It is crucial to strengthen ideological and cultural exchanges between China and the ROK, and deepen the understanding between the two peoples. A worrying trend is the sharp decline in the level of awareness and understanding between the two countries for a number of reasons. In the era of online media, the orientation of public opinion changes greatly, quickly, and sometimes unmanageably. The reasons behind it are complicated. Under the new situation, the two countries need to seek new ways of cooperation to give full play to the positive role of online media in enhancing social understanding and recognition of the two countries. Strengthening educational exchanges and cooperation is future-oriented, we should build a sustainable educational cooperation between the two countries, establish cooperative education funds, promote the co-construction of courses among universities, and jointly cultivate higher talents. More effective work needs to be done.

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