分享

每日原则:比较更多信息带来的价值和不做决定造成的成本,决定优先顺序

 百年张裕88 2022-09-15 发布于湖北
有的决定最好在获得更多信息后做出,有的决定最好立即做出。就像你在综合分析问题时总要区分大小因素一样,你也总是要比较搜集更多信息带来的边际收益和暂时不做决定造成的边际成本。

先让你的“必做之事”达到标准,再做你的“想做之事”。区分你的“必做之事”和“想做之事”,不要错误地把任何“想做之事”当作“必做之事”。

你很可能没有时间处理不重要的事,但这比没有时间处理重要的事要好得多。我经常听到人们说:“现在做点这个或那个不好吗?”这时他们很可能要分心了,不能集中在重要得多、需要做好的事情上。

不要把可能性当作概率。万事皆有可能,重要的是概率。你必须考虑每个因素的发生概率,然后进行排序。能够准确区分概率和可能性的人通常善于“务实思考”,他们是“哲学家”类型的反面,而“哲学家”类型的人则常会陷于各种可能性的迷雾当中。

好的决策者并不机械地记忆和执行上述步骤,但他们确实会做到这些。这是因为通过时间和经验的累积,他们可以条件反射般完成这些步骤,就像一个棒球手不假思索就能抓住飞来的球一样。假如他们必须把每一条原则从记忆中唤醒,通过缓慢的意识来执行原则的话,他们就不可能妥善处理纷至沓来的问题。但他们确实也会通过意识来做一些事,接下来的原则中我会加以解释,你也应该运用这些原则。

Some decisions are best made after acquiring more information; some are best made immediately. Just as you need to constantly sort the big from the small when you are synthesizing what's going on, you need to constantly evaluate the marginal benefit of gathering more infomration against the marginal cost of waiting to decide.

All of your 'must-dos' must be above the bar before you do your 'like-to-dos.' Separate your 'must-dos' from your 'like-to-dos' and don't mistakenly slip any 'like-to-dos' onto the first list.

Chances are you won't have time to deal with the unimportant things, which is better than not having time to deal with the important things. I often hear people say, “Wouldn’t it be good to do this or that?” It’s likely they are being distracted from far more important things that need to be done well.

Don't mistake possibilities for probabilities. Anything is possible. It’s the probabilities that matter. Everything must be weighed in terms of its likelihood and prioritized. People who can accurately sort probabilities from possibilities are generally strong at “practical thinking”; they’re the opposite of the “philosopher” types who tend to get lost in clouds of possibilities.

Great decision makers don’t remember all of these steps in a rote way and carry them out mechanically, yet they do follow them. That’s because through time and experience they’ve learned to do most of them reflexively, just as a baseball player catches a fly ball without thinking about how he’s going to do it. If they had to call each of the principles up from their memory and then run them through their slow conscious minds, they couldn’t possibly handle all the things that are coming at them well. But there are a couple of things that they do carry out consciously, which I’ll explain in the next few principles. You should do them too.

图片

    本站是提供个人知识管理的网络存储空间,所有内容均由用户发布,不代表本站观点。请注意甄别内容中的联系方式、诱导购买等信息,谨防诈骗。如发现有害或侵权内容,请点击一键举报。
    转藏 分享 献花(0

    0条评论

    发表

    请遵守用户 评论公约

    类似文章 更多