全球大流行病发展史

草秀青 2022-11-11 发布于辽宁

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The History of Pandemics

大流行病的历史

Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.

Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (疾病)广泛地在全国或全世界流行。

As humans have spread across the world, so have infectious diseases. Even in this modern era, outbreaks are nearly constant, though not every outbreak reaches pandemic level as the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has.

随着人类在世界各地的迁徙，传染病也传播开来。即使在当今时代，传染病也几乎是不断发生的，但不是每次疫情都会达到像新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)这样的大流行程度。

Today’s visualization outlines some of history’s most deadly pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the current COVID-19 event.

今天的数据图形象地展示了人类历史上从Antonine瘟疫到当前COVID-19事件的一些最为致命的大流行病。

A Timeline of Historical Pandemics

全球大流行病历史时间轴

Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw. However, it was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.

人类从诞生之初就一直被疾病所困扰，疾病也是我们的致命缺陷。然而，直到人类大规模进入农业社会，这些疾病的规模和传播才急剧增加。

Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.

广泛的贸易为人类和动物之间的相互作用创造了新的机会，从而加速了疾病流行。疟疾、肺结核、麻风病、流感、天花等在这些早期阶段首次出现。

The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.

人类文明程度越高，城市规模越大，贸易路线越国际化，与形形色色的人群、动物和生态系统的接触越频繁，发生大流行病的可能性就越大。

Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:

以下是近年来发生的一些主要的全球性大流行病:

Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are subject to debate based on new evidence.

注:以上列出的许多死亡人数是基于现有研究得出的最佳估计。有些流行病，比如查士丁尼（Justinian）瘟疫的死亡人数，需要根据新的证据进行评估。

Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate. Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.

在人类历史上，尽管一般疾病和大流行病都持续存在，但随着时间的推移，它们有一个共同的趋势——死亡率逐渐下降。医疗卫生条件的改善以及人类对流行病致病因素的了解是降低其感染影响的有力途径。

Wrath of the Gods

天神之怒

In many ancient societies, people believed that spirits and gods inflicted disease and destruction upon those that deserved their wrath. This unscientific perception often led to disastrous responses that resulted in the deaths of thousands, if not millions.

在许多古代社会，人们相信神灵会把疾病和毁灭降临到那些应当受到他们惩罚的人身上。这种迷信观念往往会造成灾难性的反应，导致数千人甚至数百万人的死亡。

In the case of Justinian’s plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague (the Yersinia pestis bacteria) to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.

在查士丁尼（Justinian）瘟疫的案例中，拜占庭历史学家、凯撒利亚的普罗科匹厄斯(Procopius)追溯到瘟疫(鼠疫耶尔森菌)起源于中国和印度东北部，通过陆上贸易和海上贸易路线到达埃及，然后通过地中海港口进入拜占庭帝国。

Despite his apparent knowledge of the role geography and trade played in this spread, Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian, declaring him to be either a devil, or invoking God’s punishment for his evil ways. Some historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.

尽管普罗科匹厄斯很清楚地理和贸易在这场瘟疫传播中所起的作用，但他还是把这场瘟疫的爆发归咎于查士丁尼皇帝，宣称要么查士丁尼皇帝是魔鬼，要么就是上帝对他邪恶行径的惩罚。一些历史学家认为，这一事件可能使查士丁尼皇帝试图重新统一东、西罗马帝国余部的努力付之东流，并标志着黑暗时代的开始。

Luckily, humanity’s understanding of the causes of disease has improved, and this is resulting in a drastic improvement in the response to modern pandemics, albeit slow and incomplete.

幸运的是，人类对于流行病原因的认识在不断提高，尽管认识速度缓慢且不全面，但却使我们对现代全球性大流行病的反应作出了巨大的改善。

Importing Disease

“舶来”的疾病

The practice of quarantine began during the 14th century, in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.

为了保护沿海城市免受瘟疫的侵袭，从14世纪开始有了检疫措施。谨慎的港口当局要求从疫情港口抵达威尼斯的船只在靠岸前停泊40天——这就是检疫“quarantine”一词的来源，源于意大利语“quaranta giorni”，本意为40天。

One of the first instances of relying on geography and statistical analysis was in mid-19th century London, during a cholera outbreak. In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera was spreading via tainted water and decided to display neighborhood mortality data directly on a map. This method revealed a cluster of cases around a specific pump from which people were drawing their water from.

最早依据地理和统计分析研究流行病学原因的实例之一是在19世纪中叶的伦敦，当时爆发了霍乱。1854年，约翰·斯诺（John Snow）博士认为霍乱正在通过受污染的水传播，并决定直接在地图上显示附近区域的死亡率数据。这种方法揭示出在某个水泵周围存在着成群的死亡病例，而人们正是通过这些水泵抽水。

While the interactions created through trade and urban life play a pivotal role, it is also the virulent nature of particular diseases that indicate the trajectory of a pandemic.

虽然通过贸易和城市生活而产生的人与人相互作用在疾病的流行中发挥了关键作用，但某些疾病的致命特点也暴露了其流行轨迹。

Tracking Infectiousness

追踪传染性

Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.

科学家们使用一种叫做再生数的基本方法来了解某一疾病的传染性—也称为R0或“R naught”。这个数字告诉我们每个病人平均会感染多少人。

Measles tops the list, being the most contagious with a R0 range of 12-18. This means a single person can infect, on average, 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.

麻疹是传染性最强的疾病，其R0范围为12-18。这意味着一个麻疹病人平均会感染12至18个未接种疫苗的人。

While measles may be the most virulent, vaccination efforts and herd immunity can curb its spread. The more people are immune to a disease, the less likely it is to proliferate, making vaccinations critical to prevent the resurgence of known and treatable diseases.

虽然麻疹可能是最致命的，但接种疫苗和群体免疫可以遏制其蔓延。对某种疾病免疫的人越多，这种疾病扩散的可能性就越小，因此，接种疫苗对于预防已知且可治疗疾病的复发至关重要。

It’s hard to calculate and forecast the true impact of COVID-19, as the outbreak is still ongoing and researchers are still learning about this new form of coronavirus.

由于新冠肺炎COVID-19疫情仍在持续，研究人员仍在研究这种新型冠状病毒，目前很难计算和预测其真正的影响。

Urbanization and the Spread of Disease

城市化与疾病传播

We arrive at where we began, with rising global connections and interactions as a driving force behind pandemics. From small hunting and gathering tribes to the metropolis, humanity’s reliance on one another has also sparked opportunities for disease to spread.

我们又回到了本文的开端，也就是全球各地联系和交流的日益增多，是流行病发生的驱动因素。从小型狩猎和采集部落到大都市，人类对彼此的相互依赖也引发了疾病的传播。

Urbanization in the developing world is bringing more and more rural residents into denser neighborhoods, while population increases are putting greater pressure on the environment. At the same time, passenger air traffic nearly doubled in the past decade. ds are having a profound impact on the spread of infectious disease.

发展中国家的城市化进程正在将越来越多的农村居民带入人口密集的社区，而人口的增长给环境带来了更大的压力。与此同时，航空客运量在过去的十年间几乎翻了一番。这些宏观趋势对传染病的传播产生了深远的影响。

As organizations and governments around the world ask for citizens to practice social distancing to help reduce the rate of infection, the digital world is allowing people to maintain connections and commerce like never before.

由于世界各地的政府和组织要求居民进行社交隔离以降低感染率，互联网世界将帮助人们以前所未有的方式保持联系和商业往来。