经济学研究人的决策以及社会运行的基本逻辑,过去几百年不管是对个人、企业还是政府的决策都产生了巨大的影响。经济学家凯恩斯曾说:“经济学家和政治学家的思想,不论它们正确与否,都比一般所想象的更有力量。的确,世界就是由它们统治的。实用主义者自认为他们不受任何学理的影响,其实他们经常是某个已故经济学家的俘虏。自以为是的当权者,他们的狂乱想法不过是从若干年前某个拙劣的作家的作品中提炼出来的。我确信,和思想的逐步侵蚀相比,既得利益的力量被过分夸大了。……或迟或早,不论好坏,危险的东西不是既得利益,而是思想。”
以下是著名的学术期刊《美国经济评论》杂志评选的过去100年在该杂志上发表的最具影响力的20篇经济学论文。排名不分先后,每篇文章附有下载链接。 1 'The Use of Knowledge In Society' Conclusion: Prices must be the focal point of all economic decisions.Link: https://www./aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdfSource: AER 2 'The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment' Authors: Franco Modigliani and Merton MillerConclusion: A firm’s total market value is invariant to its borrowing behavior.Link: https://www./aer/top20/48.3.261-297.pdfSource: AER 3 'Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?' Conclusion: Stock price volatility is far too great to be simply attributed to new information about future real dividends.Link: https://www./aer/top20/71.3.421-436.pdfSource: AER 4 'An Almost Ideal Demand System' Authors: Angus S. Deaton and John MuellbauerConclusion: You can predict household demand based on the relative costs of 'subsistence' versus 'bliss'.Link: https://www./aer/top20/70.3.312-326.pdfSource: AER 5 'Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care' Authors: Kenneth J. ArrowConclusion: The health care market is too plagued by moral hazard and consumers' lack of information to be viewed as free.Link: https://assets./assetserver/files/ 9442.pdfSource: AER 6 'Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs' Authors: Robert E. Lucas, Jr.Conclusion: You can model what happens when consumers make decisions without knowing whether a price change also signals a relative price change.Link: https://www./aer/top20/63.3.326-334.pdfSource: AER 7 'The Role of Monetary Policy' Conclusion: There exists a 'natural rate of unemployment,' or the number of jobs a given economy can support.Link: https://www./aer/top20/58.1.1-17.pdfSource: AER 8 'Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity' Authors: Avinash K. Dixit and Joseph E. StiglitzConclusion: Product variety can influence the way the market dictates resource allocation. The market considers profits, while a social optimum takes into account the consumer's surplus.Link: http://www./aer/top20/67.3.297-308.pdfSource: AER 9 'A Theory of Production' Authors: Charles W. Cobb and Paul H. DouglasConclusion: You can figure out how much production a given amount of capital and labor can yield.Link: http://www./aer/top20/18.1.139-165.pdfSource: AER 10 'Optimal Taxation and Public Production' Authors: Peter A. Diamond and James A. MirrleesConclusion: It is possible to set taxes that minimize distortions and disincentives, and eliminate production inefficiencies.Link: http://www./aer/top20/61.1.8-27.pdf Source: AER 11 'Capital Theory and Investment Behavior' Authors: Dale W. JorgensonConclusion: Cost-of-finance (interest rates and equity yields) and taxes should drive investment decisions.Link: http://www./aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdfSource: AER 12 'Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization' Authors: Armen A. Alchian and Harold DemsetzConclusion: Firms must continuously measure productivity. The market alone is not enough to generate peak output — strong management is also required, and firm's will benefit from devoting resources to it.Link: http://www./aer/top20/62.5.777-795.pdfSource: AER 13 'On The Impossibility Of Informationally Efficient Markets' Authors: Sanford GrossmanConclusion: In a world of dispersed information, the equilibrium price can itself be a source of information to consumers.Link: http://www./aer/top20/70.3.393-408.pdfSource: AER 14 'Scale Economies, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade' Conclusion: Standard comparative cost theory doesn't sufficiently explain trade.Link: http://www./aer/top20/70.5.950-959.pdfSource: AER 15 'Migration, Unemployment and Development' Authors: John R. Harris and Michael TodaroConclusion: In poor countries, individuals migrate from rural to urban areas.Link: http://www./aer/top20/60.1.126-142.pdfSource: AER 16 'The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society' Conclusion: Tariffs are better for countries to enact than import quotas.Link: http://www./aer/top20/64.3.291-303.pdfSource: AER 17 'Economic Growth and Income Inequality' Conclusion: Earlier phases of economic development are characterized by increasing income inequality.Link: http://www./aer/top20/45.1.1-28.pdfSource: AER 18 'National Debt In A Neoclassical Growth Model' Authors: Peter A. DiamondConclusion: External and internal government debt can potentially reduce capital stock in the long-run.Link: http://www./aer/top20/55.5.1126-1150.pdfSource: AER 19 'A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas' Authors: Robert A. MundellConclusion: You can figure out the optimal number of entities for a given currency areas.Link: http://www./aer/top20/51.4.657-665.pdfSource: AER 20 'The Economic Theory of Agency: The Principal's Problem' Conclusion: There is a way to avoid moral hazard when you're paying people a lot of money.Link: http://www./aer/top20/63.2.134-139.pdfSource: AER ...................................................................
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