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Poor Asian countries face an ageing crisis In “Ragnarok Online” gamers use characters from Norse mythology to wreak havoc. Septuagenarians are not its target audience, but that does not deter Sunanta Phongcharoen. The 72-year-old Thai woman has reached the game’s highest level. This has eased the burdens of old age, she gushes on Manoottangwai, a social-media site for the elderly. By showcasing such stories, its founders claim to be helping prepare Thailand for a demographic crisis. 在《诸神黄昏Online》（Ragnarok Online）游戏中，玩家使用北欧神话中的角色造成破坏。该游戏的目标受众并不是七十多岁的老人，但这并没有阻止Sunanta Phongcharoen。这位72岁的泰国女性已经达到了游戏的最高级别。她在一个为老年人设立的社交媒体网站Manoottangwai上热情洋溢地说，这缓解了她老年的负担。网站的创始人声称，通过展示这样的故事，他们有助于让泰国为人口老龄化的危机做好准备。
To understand how bad the problem is, compare Thailand’s transformation with those of countries better known for their greying populations. Between 2002 and 2021 the share of Thailand’s population aged 65 and above increased from 7% to 14%—thresholds that are widely used to define when a society has started “ageing”, and when it has grown “aged”. The same transition took Japan 24 years, America 72 and France 115. And unlike those countries Thailand has grown old before getting rich. Its GDP per person in 2021 was $7,000. When Japan’s population was similarly aged, in 1994, its income level in constant dollars was nearly five times higher. 要了解问题有多严重，可以将泰国的变化与那些因人口老龄化而闻名的国家进行比较。从2002年到2021年，泰国65岁及以上人口的比例从7%增加到了14%——这是用来定义一个社会何时开始“老龄化”，以及何时变得“老年化”的广泛使用的阈值。日本经历了24年，美国72年，法国115年。与这些国家不同，泰国在未富裕之前就已经变老。2021年，其人均GDP是7,000美元。当日本的人口在1994年达到类似的老龄化水平时，其固定美元计价的收入水平几乎是泰国的五倍。 Thailand’s troubles underline a regional trend of enormous economic and social significance. The Vietnamese are about half as rich as Thais. Their society will probably take only about 17 years to move from “ageing” to “aged”. Even in countries where ageing is taking longer, such as Indonesia (26 years) and the Philippines (37 years), it will happen at much lower levels of income than has been the case for others. South-East Asia as a region will be “aged” by 2042. South Asia will hold out for almost another decade—but with big regional disparities. Sri Lanka, where average incomes were about a third below Thailand’s even before its current economic crisis, is projected to become an aged society by 2028. Parts of India, the world’s most populous country, are already old. In the southern state of Kerala, 17% of the population is 60 or older. Asia will account for 70% of the expected increase in senior citizens in poor countries by 2050. 泰国的困境强调了一个地区趋势，具有巨大的经济和社会意义。越南人的财富大约是泰国人的一半。他们的社会可能只需要大约17年就从“老龄化”过渡到“老年化”。即便是在老龄化进程较慢的国家，如印度尼西亚（26年）和菲律宾（37年），也会在比其他国家更低的收入水平上实现这一转变。预计到2042年，整个东南亚地区将变得“老年化”。南亚将坚持差不多另一个十年——但会有很大的地区差异。在斯里兰卡，即便在当前的经济危机之前，平均收入也比泰国低大约三分之一，预计到2028年会变成一个老年社会。印度的一些地区，作为世界上人口最多的国家，已经变老。在印度南部的喀拉拉邦，60岁及以上的人口占17%。预计到2050年，亚洲将占贫穷国家预期增加的老年人口的70%。 The speed of Asia’s demographic transition is a product of its development. Industrialisation and changing social norms have reduced fertility rates even as better technology and health care have lengthened people’s lives. Yet compared with the East Asian tigers, which underwent this change in the 20th century, much of emerging Asia is doing so with slower growth. All this will compound the region’s economic problems. Countries that are growing old before they get rich are a threat to Asia’s rise, says Donghyun Park, an economic adviser at the Asian Development Bank (ADB). 亚洲人口老龄化的速度是其发展的产物。工业化和社会规范的变化降低了生育率，而更好的技术和医疗保健则延长了人们的寿命。然而，与20世纪经历了这一变化的东亚四小龙相比，许多新兴亚洲国家的增长较慢。所有这些都将加剧该地区的经济问题。亚洲开发银行（ADB）的经济顾问Donghyun Park说，在他们富裕之前就变老的国家是亚洲崛起的威胁。 The biggest drag is on labour markets. As countries grow older, workforces shrink. In Thailand the working-age population is expected to fall by a fifth by 2055. And ageing creates particular problems for developing countries because they have big sectors, such as agriculture, that are especially vulnerable to it. As growth draws workers to cities, their parents are left tending fields. That is hard for old bodies. A study published in Nature in 2023 found ageing in rural China cut agricultural output by 5% in 2019. 最大的拖累是劳动力市场。随着国家变老，劳动力队伍在缩小。预计到2055年，泰国的劳动适龄人口将减少五分之一。而且，老龄化对发展中国家来说是特别的问题，因为它们有很大的部门（如农业）特别容易受到影响。随着增长吸引劳动者到城市，他们的父母被留下来照顾田地。这对老年人的身体来说是很困难的。2023年发表在《自然》杂志上的一项研究发现，2019年中国农村的老龄化导致农业产出减少了5%。 There are social costs, too. The biggest involves pensioners falling into poverty—a challenge the rich world struggles with. In poorer countries, workers are often unable to save adequately or at all. Even if they can cobble together a retirement kitty, poor financial literacy and underdeveloped financial markets limit what they can do with it. State-pension coverage, though improving, is still patchy. In South and South-East Asia less than 40% of the elderly population gets a pension, according to the International Labour Organisation. In Cambodia and Pakistan, the share is less than 10%. And the pensions that are on offer are meagre. India’s national pension for the poor provides a measly Rs200 ($2.40) a month. 也有社会成本。最大的问题涉及养老金领取者陷入贫困——这是富裕世界正在努力应对的挑战。在较贫穷的国家，工人通常无法充分或完全储蓄。即便他们能够勉强筹集一些退休金，由于财务知识水平低和金融市场不发达，他们能做的也很有限。国家养老金覆盖率虽然有所提高，但仍然不够完善。根据国际劳工组织的数据，在南亚和东南亚，不到40%的老年人口能够获得养老金。在柬埔寨和巴基斯坦，这一比例还不到10%。而且提供的养老金数额微薄。印度的国家贫困养老金每月只提供区区200卢比（2.40美元）。 Health care is another worry. Developing-country health-care systems are already overburdened. Geriatric care tends to be rudimentary, as is provision for non-communicable diseases, such as hypertension and diabetes, that ail the elderly. 医疗保健是另一个令人担忧的问题。发展中国家的医疗保健系统已经负担过重。老年人的医疗护理往往是基础的，同时，非传染性疾病（如高血压和糖尿病）的医疗服务也是如此，而这些疾病常常困扰着老年人。 Families are the traditional source of elderly care. Elders are venerated in Asian cultures and joint-family households are common. Just 11% of Asians aged above 60 live on their own compared with 27% of Americans and Europeans, according to Pew Research Centre, an American pollster. Asian societies expect children to care for their parents. In some countries this filial responsibility is written into law: Bangladeshis and Indians can be imprisoned for neglecting their parents. 家庭是老年人传统的护理来源。在亚洲文化中，老年人受到尊敬，而且联合家庭也很常见。根据美国民意调查机构皮尤研究中心的数据，只有11%的60岁以上亚洲人独自居住，而美国和欧洲的这一比例是27%。亚洲社会期望子女照顾他们的父母。在某些国家，这种孝道责任被写入法律：孟加拉国和印度的人民可以因忽视父母而被监禁。 But the compact is weakening. Rapid migration to cities is separating parents and offspring. In many countries, increasing female participation in the workforce is depleting women’s capacity to care for elderly relatives. This is a traumatic change. The elderly in poor countries who live alone are more likely to suffer from depression than their counterparts in America, new research suggests. 但是这种约定正变得越来越弱。快速向城市的迁移正在将父母和子女分开。在许多国家，女性劳动力市场参与度的增加正在减少女性照顾老年亲戚的能力。这是一个令人痛苦的变化。新的研究表明，与美国的同龄人相比，独自居住的贫困国家的老年人更容易患抑郁症。 Old women are worst affected, in part because they outlive men. Average female life expectancy in Asian countries is 75 years, compared with 70 for men. Asian women are also less educated than men, earn less and save less. Data from Vietnam’s last census showed elderly women were less financially independent and suffer more from diseases than old men. Similar inequities exist elsewhere. 老年女性受到的影响最大，部分原因是她们的寿命超过了男性。亚洲国家女性的平均预期寿命是75岁，而男性是70岁。亚洲女性的教育程度也低于男性，收入也少，储蓄也少。来自越南上一次人口普查的数据显示，老年女性在经济上不如老年男性独立，也更容易患病。其他地方也存在类似的不平等。 Women are also more likely to live alone in old age. Hamsa, Meenakshi and Saraswathi are cases in point. The octogenarian women, who go by their first names, live together in the Bodhimaram home for the elderly run by a non-profit outfit in the town of Tiruvannamalai in south India. All three have outlived their husbands and cannot live with their families. The home’s owner says demand for such services is growing. 女性在老年时也更有可能独自居住。Hamsa、Meenakshi 和 Saraswathi 就是这种情况的例子。这三位以名字作为姓的80多岁的女性，居住在印度南部Tiruvannamalai镇的一个由非营利机构运营的Bodhimaram老年人之家。她们都比她们的丈夫活得长，不能和家人住在一起。该家庭的主人说，对这种服务的需求正在增加。 Things are made worse by poor governance. The Bodhimaram old-age home is a charity, and therefore eligible for state support. But its owner says securing this involves too much paperwork for too little reward. Instead she relies on donations. Elderly care, especially for richer Asians, is shifting to the private sector. In many Indian cities, retirement homes are booming. 治理不善也使情况恶化。Bodhimaram老年之家是一个慈善机构，因此有资格获得国家支持。但它的主人说，获取这种支持涉及过多的文书工作，回报太少。因此，她依赖捐赠。对于较富裕的亚洲人，特别是老年人的护理正转向私营部门。在许多印度城市，退休社区的业务正在蓬勃发展。 Policymakers are failing to plan for their ageing societies, says Eduardo Klien of HelpAge, an NGO working on the problem across Asia. Sonalde Desai, a demographer at the University of Maryland, says Indian officials are too “delighted by the demographic dividend” they are getting from a bulging working-age population to even consider the problem. 政策制定者未能为他们日益老龄化的社会做好规划，HelpAge 的 Eduardo Klien 这样说，这是一个在亚洲各地解决这个问题的非政府组织。马里兰大学的人口学家Sonalde Desai说，印度官员对于他们从庞大的适龄工作人口中获得的“人口红利”感到“非常高兴”，甚至没有考虑这个问题。 Countries further along the demographic transition are starting to act. Ahead of elections in Thailand earlier this year, every big party made some promise to the elderly. Vietnam passed a law on matters relating to the elderly way back in 2009. Yet none of the countries affected has grasped the scale of the problem—and the need to take much bolder steps. 处于人口转变更远阶段的国家正在开始采取行动。在今年早些时候泰国的选举之前，每个大党都对老年人作出了一些承诺。越南早在2009年就通过了有关老年人事务的法律。然而，没有一个受影响的国家已经理解到问题的规模——以及需要采取更为大胆的步骤。 Ushering women into higher-paying jobs (which is desirable in itself) would help. It should also be much easier to work past official retirement ages. Mr Park of the ADB reckons too many countries see the elderly as infirm and unproductive. That needs to change. Countries that are ageing before they get rich need all the help they can get. 引导女性进入更高薪酬的工作（本身就是可取的）会有所帮助。官方退休年龄后继续工作也应该变得更容易。亚洲开发银行的Park先生认为，太多的国家认为老年人是虚弱和非生产性的。这需要改变。在变富之前就老龄化的国家需要所有他们能得到的帮助。 来源：七点外刊 声明：文章部分图文版权归原创作者所有，如有侵权请与我们联系删除。 科大纵横 USTCPLUS
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