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WarinChina-1939(2_33)
RussianmeetJapaneseforduel
Thedevelopmentofextremewinterweatherof1939/40fromtheNorthPole
downtothemiddlelatitudesalloverthenorthernhemisphere,mayhave
receivedsomecontributionfromtheFarEastaswell.Withlesswaterinthe
air,thearticairmoreeasilycouldmovesouth.NorthAmericawondered
whathadcausedtheunusualdryairinNovember1939.(NYT,7January
1940).
AtthetimeWWIIstartedinEurope,theChinese-Japaneseundeclared
militaryconflictwasalreadyinitsthirty-secondmonth.ByFebruary1940,
morethan4Millionpeoplehaddiedandanother5Millionhadbeen
wounded.(NYT,11February1940).Thisfightingshouldnotbeignored
whilestudyinganthropogenicweatherchanges,althoughthereislittlescope
topaymuchattentiontothisdistantscenario.Itwouldcertainlybedifficult
topinpoint“majoractivities”thatmayhavehadanimpactonthe
atmosphere.Actuallyin1939amajorfloodoccurredinChina.Avastareain
theNorthChinaPlainwassubmerged,andthewaterinthestreetsinTianjin
(120kmsouth-eastofBeijing)wastwometersdeep,sothatboatswerethe
onlymeansoftransportforupwardsoftwomonths.Itisclaimedthatthe
deaths-tollwas20,000.
In1939artillerybarrage,troopscharging
anddailybombinghadbecomedeadly
routineinChinaformanymonths.What
roledidthewarmachineryonChina’ssoil
playedinmakingthefloodinghappen?This
questionneedstobeansweredoneday.
Inthiscontexttheencounterbetween
RussiaandJapaninautumn1939(NYT,17
September1939)shouldalsobementioned
here.OnlytendaysbeforeWWIIstarted,
on20August1939,theRedArmywith
100,000troopswentintocombatwiththeJapaneseArmycomprising70,000
soldiers(KwantungArmy)atNomonham,aplaceontheboarderbetween
OuterMongoliaandManchukuinfineweather
1
.
TheSovietforceshadbroughtwiththemmorethan400tanks,200heavy
guns,400armouredcars,500-700planesandseveralthousandtonsof
ammunition,shellsandbombstotheFarEast,overadistanceof3,000
1
Coox
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kilometres.Presumablynotlessmilitaryequipmentwouldhavebeen
availablefortheKwantungArmy,whicheventuallywastheloserinthis
eventwith20,000mendead,whenthetrucewassignedonSeptember16.
TheSoviet’suseofmassivetanksandtheirsuperiormilitarytacticsproved
successful.Bothsidessufferedconsiderablelosses.Theweatheralsomay
havecontributedtothelosses.Thiscontinentalregionisusuallyrelatively
dry.Onewonderswhethertheairhadbecome‘dryer’duringseveraldaysof
fighting.TwobriefreportsquotedbyCoox
2
mayserveasanillustration:
?Rainhadbeencomingdownfordays,andonthenightof9
th
September,weatherbecameverycold,windbecamegusty,and
snowfellhard.Someprogresswasseenonthebridgebytheearly
afternoononthe9
th
,butasthestormintensified,therivercurrent
quickenedandwaterrosetotwoandahalfmeters.
?On10
September:‘Firingbytheinfantrybeganat6a.m.followed
byanartilleryduel.Fivehourslater,rainchangedtosnowagain,
anditgrewintenselycold’.
Thishappenedinaregion,whichgenerallysawlittlerain.Thecontribution
bywaron“rainforcing”waspresumablyverysmallwithnoimpactoutside
thecombatzone.ButbymidSeptember1939withWWIIalreadytwoweeks
oldwithPolandalmostdoomed,aseveralhundredkilometresdefencelines
activatedbetweentheEnglishChannelandNorthSeatoSwitzerland,above
averagerainfellincentralEurope(A)Itseemsreasonabletoaskwhetherthis
eventinEuropehashadadirectlinktolackofrainintheUSA,astheNYT
(8October1939)reportedundertheheadline“WheatBeltFretsasRains
HoldOff”.AtthesametimeCaliforniaandArizonahadhadveryhigh
precipitation(370%and335%abovenormalduringSeptember).Butforthis,
itmightbereasonabletolinktheimpactofwaractivitiesinEuropetolackof
rainintheUSA.(B)
Furtherdetails:(A)Rain-Making,2_31;(B)USAdriedout,2_32.
EffectofrecordcoldJanuaryonWarinChina
ThewarinChinasawmanybattlesinlate1939.InJanuary1940verycold
aircreptinfromtheNorth.Thefollowingnewspaperreportsillustratethe
eventasunder:
?CHUNGKING,China,January23,1940–TheChineseclaimedan
importantvictoryoverJapaneseforcesnorthofHupehtoday.A
Japanesecolumnof20,000menadvancingnorthwardsfrom
Suihsien,wassaidtohavebeencrushedatKaochengbyfrontal
attacks.Meanwhilesnowblanketscovermostofthebattlefieldsand
recordcoldweatherisgrippingmostpartsofChina.
2
Coox
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?HONKKONG,January23,1940(AP)–Inbattlesfoughtinpelting
snowstormsandbittercold,theChinesereportedtodaythattheyhad
repulsedaJapaneseattacknearChaochenginWesternShantung
Province,foiledaJapaneseattempttobreakthroughtheirlinesin
NorthernHupehProvince,anddynamitedtwotrainscarrying
JapanesetroopsinShantung.
?SHANGHAI,January23,1940–Morethan650bodiesofhomeless
beggarsandrefugeeswhoperished
overnightinfreezingcoldandfrom
malnutritionwerefoundinShanghai’s
streetsandvacantlotsduringthelastfour
daysofintensecold.Morethan450of
thesevictimsarebabiesorsmall
children.AllpartsofChinareported
unusuallyharshweather,withsnow
fallinginsomedistrictswhereitwas
unknownfortwentyyears.Duetopovertyandhomelessnessof
millionsofrefugees,basedonShanghaifigures,theciviliantoll
consequenttothecoldwavewasestimatedatabout65,000.
?HONGKONG,January23,1940(AP)–Thecoldwavehad
extendedtodaytoChina’ssouthernmostprovincesofKwangtung
andKwangsi.InChangsha,capitalofHunanProvince,theweather
wasdescribedastheworstintwentyyears.Ablindingsnowstorm
sweptLanchow(Lanzhou),capitalofKansu,wherethecoldwas
saidtobetheseverestinChina.
Andtheundeclaredwarwenton.EarlyinFebruary1940theChinese
amassed400,000troopsatNansingandfoughta10-daybattlesuffering
heavylosseswithabout40,000deadand80,000wounded.(NYT,08
February1940).
FewEventsinChinainlate1939
2October1939;“…thatsincetheJapan-SovietarmisticeontheManchukuo
bordernumerouscolumnsofRussiantroopshavebeenenteringSinkiang
ProvinceusinghighwaysconnectingUrumchiwithTrans-SibirianRailway.
Somereports,whicharecausingalarminJapanesemilitarycircles,declare
thattheSovietUnionalreadyhasnearly300,000armedmeninsideSinkiang.
…Duringthelasttwomonthsimmensewarsuppliesandanumberof
airplanesfromtheSovietreachedChina,…”.(NYT,3October1939).Japan
claimstohavecrushed19Chinesedivisions;whichleftChinesewith10,000
deadonthefield.TheChineseestimatedthat20,000Japanesehadbeen
killedorwoundedinthelasttwoweeks.(NYT,ditto).
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28December1939;100JapaneseairplanesraidedthecityofLanchowfor
threedaysinthebiggestairattacksincehostilitiesstarted30monthsago.
Lanchow,isanimportantcentreonthesupplyroutefromSovietRussiato
Chungking.(NYT,29December1939).
28December1939;ChineseArmyspokesmanassertedthatJapanhad
suffered100,000casualtiesinDecemberonallfronts.(NYT,29December
1939).
03February1940;TheChineseundertookmine-sweepingactivitiesinthe
YangtzeRiverlastyeardestroying1,021mines.Lastmonththeydestroyed
anadditional37mines.(NYT,3February1940).
3February1940;Nanning/China.Constantfieldartilleryandmachinegun
fireandbombingincludingtwosurprisethrustsbyJapan,weresaidtohave
demoralizedatleast140,000ofthe400,000Chinesesoldiersamassedto
defendattacksonNanning.(NYT,03February1940).
3February1940;SixchurchleaderscallforembargoonJapan,saying:
“Withouraidover2,000,000liveshavebeenlostintheconflict.Between
5,000,000and10,000,000otherliveshavebeenlostasaresultofthewarand
over60,000,000peoplehavebeenrenderedhomelessanddestitute.”(NYT,3
February1940).
Summary
Whilelookingforreasonsastohowarcticaircouldmovesouthwardswith
littleresistanceimmediatelyafterthewarhadstartedinEurope,thefighting
intheFarEastintheautumnandwinterof1939/40shouldnotbeignored.It
isprobablethat,impactsofthewarinChinamayhavecontributed,even
thoughtoasmallextentbywayof‘cloudseeding’only,totheseverewar
winterof1939/40experiencedinEuropeaswellastothosetwowarwinters
thatfollowed.Thetheoryofclimaticchangesduetotheimpactofwarsatsea
seemsirrelevantwithregardtoJapan’swarwithChinafrom1938-1945.The
Sino-Japanesestrugglewasalandbasedwar,withnothingincomparisonto
thenavalwarfareinNorthernEuropeanwatersinautumn1939.
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