nonstateWorld
perpetuateviolenceanddisruptiononalargescale.
Economically,globalgrowthdoesslightlybetter
Inthisworld,nonstateactors—nongovernmentalthanintheGiniOut-of-the-Bottlescenariobecause
organizations(NGOs),multinationalbusinesses,morecooperationoccursonmajorglobalchallenges
academicinstitutions,andwealthyindividuals—aswellinthisworld.Theworldisalsomorestableand
assubnationalunits(megacities,forexample),flourishsociallycohesive.
andtaketheleadinconfrontingglobalchallenges.An
increasingglobalpublicopinionconsensusamong
elitesandmanyofthegrowingmiddleclasseson
majorglobalchallenges—poverty,theenvironment,
anti-corruption,rule-of-law,andpeace—formthebase
oftheirsupport.Thenation-statedoesnotdisappear,
butcountriesincreasinglyorganizeandorchestrate
“hybrid”coalitionsofstateandnonstateactorswhich
shiftdependingontheissue.
Authoritarianregimesfindithardesttooperatein
thisworld,preoccupiedwithassertingpolitical
primacyathomeandrespectinanincreasingly“fully
democratized”world.Evendemocraticcountries,
whichareweddedtothenotionofsovereigntyand
independence,finditdifficulttooperatesuccessfully
inthiscomplexanddiverseworld.Smaller,moreagile
countriesinwhichelitesarealsomoreintegrated
areapttodobetterthanlargercountriesthatlack
socialorpoliticalcohesion.Formalgovernance
institutionsthatdonotadapttothemorediverse
andwidespreaddistributionofpowerarealsoless
likelytobesuccessful.Multinationalbusinesses,IT
communicationsfirms,internationalscientists,NGOs,
andothersthatareusedtocooperatingacrossborders
andaspartofnetworksthriveinthishyper-globalized
worldwhereexpertise,influence,andagilitycountfor
morethan“weight”or“position.”
Thisisneverthelessa“patchwork”andveryuneven
world.Someglobalproblemsgetsolvedbecause
networksmanagetocoalesce,andsomecooperation
occursacrossstateandnonstatedivides.Inother
cases,nonstateactorsmighttrytodealwitha
challenge,buttheyarestymiedbecauseofopposition
frommajorpowers.Securitythreatsposeanincreasing
challenge:accesstolethalanddisruptivetechnologies
expands,enablingindividualsandsmallgroupsto
GlobalTrends2030:AlternAtiveWorldsxiv |
|
