,
?)ú43Au:.mmap-2013-7-17-Mindjet
a L?Y?Y·><,XDB
ü??"?údDB
-è0JV) L?H)ú9?k,XDB
JE?E?úd|?v????_
?Bü£E?è??,ìGèE ?′2?1
£E?43Au
DBL????5?
DBú7???4?
?4?ê?4?DBG2?,ìG??£E?
DBú×(MU?>ò/DB?
|A?43Au
BF?μC,yü43Au s)ú?"??
A?A?,ìh ?M4z?''
AuDCmA??P`?"??2?,RúD 5?
A??P` ?/??"??4?
?
?
??D
2&úd
'' ?D(MUAu
M2 ?D43Au
--Mindjet
,
--Mindjet
#G£"G
/? á ?G£? B_(=,X¤?(MUèü9?ú ?_(=,Xá à/?2O′E¤1k′DB `c? ?
14{ ?G£qB_(=¤/?2?/?z??fc6?′,ì1 )!è3′4±íLêèá à14{ ?G£á6?E¤1k
1C± ?G£ü??#?A?_(=¤?(Mn2?êèKY,ìí ?'';&? `,ì1 )! ?1t£E¤1kèá6?,L8E¤1kè′4±íLê&?
!¨)[ ?G£Y,ì1,X )! ?Y4±íLê ?'';&?,X ?G£eg ?hêè(=)úKüL$1è ?1Eˉ> ?/?E¤1k
DB9?k??AuDDB `#G£DB
DBú×6?E24áDB `/?7DB
43AuCmú4?
43AuCm"
43Auò><4?
X??c ?/ á/?/?,?/D+/?"?
1T )>ú4?>á ü><
?Dú×><
íDBú×??/G "G/????1E24á ?G£H)úYü
1 2n4?D
3"4?C±(i)=R/kG£ a ?D5àá aJD
4n4?L$? ?4?DBüDTCK&? `4?&?
G£4?C±HDá,>,X4?L$ `rL4?L$(t8×èoKá ??)á à
5"4??rLT?L$(2?.B)D,XG
6&4??A?? s?DBYNNcE??&4?
7A?) ?4??D(f)
3t?Dú×><7?T5à?ê7??5àT3t
′)ò/B56ò/43Au ò
4?ò!9Px
1a.B ò,?,X `43AuCm?Bü
2EY?,ìh,Xò6
3t1Au1kò/Cm
44? ò6è`Xò6μC
ü43Auò
56ò
/?7 _DBCm(AuDDB)
>_(=DG£?? `DG£Kè??
ú )? `á?56ò(!¨EW)
z¢Lê??,1C±ú&?,?l?
ò6T2FSmD+èY0ú ü??_,XNNcf?
ú6ò
/?7 _DBCm(AuDDB)
6M6/???><a''4§Xè1,ìíD
1k!¨_è360!¨_èü4? ,ìh6
?4?ò
E24á?DBCm
¤/?)?B5üêKèT,X ¥)C_?
?/?)?B5Lc o?4?)?B5 ?ê
?t ?G£,X?DG2?
|??4?ò
q,G2??4?ò
?Dú×?4?ò
?Dú×,è?òE24á?DBtEH4?C±4?EH?D
?Dú×?E?ò4?E24?? ? `,X
,?Ká ü?4?
,ìí?Dú×?4?ò
3t?Dú×ò4?EH3t?DètEHúD!?(,?3Au,X6?5à aTL$ `?L$)t $?ü>4?L$èáü2?.B4?L$
7&?òú× ?1,???tG£,ìG/?z??/?+c>DG£?? ` ?6C_?
--Mindjet
n: àBüDB `L81tD
E?üb àBüDBè′U0?è′?2?DB?)?
Vpá$μC?TE?5êè?8üD£E?L?C_?
Au1k
s?DB?-1—ün
t1kG D
!£tDBaJG?,/? `L8G? `
D ?G£,ìí''G??U?/?z
-6?A??èAu1k?)ú(MBüü
?Dú×><?-1
f ?4??D,N?D,Xc ?4?,X4?
?4?YcDBKè!5B,XG£D
U0?.?2?á#ùDB.ú4?4?L$á#ù.?EóR·>< ?ü
Au1k
íDBfc
tDD?N+1?/2
tDJDN/2 ` a?tD,XG D
tDJDèDBG?á,?Uü2?.B8×è!¨_?EY?
ú4?DB?-1
L?L$/F4??3t?D/i4?C±/f,ìh4??D
N/2--.BnDü4?(7??5àT3t?Díh)
Dü4?2?.B?L$(?D)--Jü4?1?3t?D
.Bn4?C± ?!Dü4??D
n?
E?ü:1"?4?1!¨êE¥1!¨DB,XG D2DBú×#?
3"G ¥)EózêHG ¥)Eózêí¤NM,??Eˉ>NX
üOj?NM"′)G D:¤oDB!£Hz,Xèá!£Hza!?H,X!¨
NrLC?HzD
--Mindjet
???
n?
E?ü5ê?a1kG D à
üAu1k43AuG£(??2?D/??úD/,ìG2?D1)
|A?43AuEˉ>??údèü??>DB/?7/?z
Au1k
s?DB
?-1 ?n?
?-1 s?DB
?-1ú4?CmXc4?
+ ?F?ú,X??? ü????
ˉú?
E?ü5ê:YU0??2?DB,ú4?4?L$áa.B, `!D?CKSü
ü?t?DúG!,Kè50%,X?D Au1k
tú4?Cm
¢??fc
ú4?Cm
?D¢??3t,4/N.BnQ1ü4?
Q1üE-?4?1′t,íh G ?
àTLb2?.B?L$
??2?D
?/? ??2?DCV
E?ü5ê
Sü??#1Ká à,#(MBüá à( à??''á à??#/?7!¨EW)
Sü à?/???#1K,"G,ì?EW?
( à?t#P`üá àHUX!?[ )! àG D?]!¨EW)
??úD
?/? ?úD/ZúD,S )!> sDBüA1?''DB?!5B
ZúD>J súDü1G D?ê,X,ìí!5B
!¨EWá àBü,X??#ü ?7?DBú×,ìí!5BP?"
?Bü?4?DB`Lê/ZúDG DLê?4?DB ?ZúD???1
hü
?/¥?4?( !7?)+bL?zá à2bá àBü
ZúD"/êG D/!¨EW à?t? )/¥Q #
>??#P`úD(Z#P`?"k)
? a7á:?tDB:üG Dt£Yt???ê(A?A?)
,Rú14{
?4?YcDB¤DB1? ??D 42?D,Rú!¨PR
Au1k
tú4?Cm
R4-núDü?''14{[?? a],N?D
ú4?,XCm
Lb2?.B?L$/i4?C±/Fbü4??3t?D
--Mindjet
?G£G2?
′p
E ?
,ìG
,ìG/?2O!7BóLê,ìG(?t ?G£ ?ê? ?'')?)
,ìG7&?ò
,ìG7&?ò???,ìG,è4? _(?4??UE@6)
??G??P?"(0XKSP?)è??,ìG? ?
,ìG2?D,ìGürè'',ìGü?è8×è-1~1
",è4?,ìG,X?"?(/? ?/? `/???tD)
E?ü5ê:1??1C±,X#G£DB2?? ?G£''ú×!7?ê??
?G£97??tE24á ?G£!7?''(M2 ?DP`)3?? ?G£ê,è4??G2?(7&?)
Au1k
?-1G D `???èün?
?-1 s?DB(ü)
?,?èD14{,ìG
E?ü5ê:1?? ?G£14{#G£DB,KY4??G2?
2á?U"''!7?ú×3?G£ ?1á?b30
D??DBíh14{?
fc,ì àDBG (??)
6??è `A?2?D
''?t ?G£114{NNc>êè"E-?t ?G£Kè?7è?
E?ü5ê:??1T14{ ?G£(egA?¨A?n)
Au1k
kA??,X?DèN>A??,XtD
RiA??14{ a
-?!7@?
E?ü??:''?)?,ì à14{êè?U-?!7W2?D
,ìí s9£ ?-?!7G£,4§p ??
t,ì à,X14{D
&?`?,ìG
E?ü5ê:?? ?G£,??!7?E24á?
??`ú ?G£(?tD,+G,!7A?)
p+q=1!£NM 4,Au1k!¨)[?
íh .E24á ?G£???
-,ìG
E?ü5ê:?t ?G£F?`ú ?G£(?ê7?'' )
+!?>?5ù$μC?íh?D
,ìG2?Dá1C± ?G£
á ?1E¤1k.?A?ü?b30
,ìG ü)ú?10.3-0.7
,ìG2?D ??A??E ?
′!8?UE?E?:+?P`??J?
--Mindjet
V)[1b1,X_êá?n?'' _ê
V)[1b0,X_êá?ná ?6?_ê
V)[?b0.05?V)[_ê(A??P`)
?tfá,ì?_ê aá?n1b1,5àí0?_ê?''
`NMA?P`
??A?P`DQ?t4§p
EYn?A?P`
?tA?P`,ìf(à0?
??A?P`4§pV)[,ì à
?tí0?_êV)[,Xú×è/?7 _Lc ?G£ú×
n?A?P`Yx??sV)[p
`NMú×yE¥!7?,X5ê
G D
???
?Uüb?·?(e#èF?Bü,XK?Nl
E24á?Lc ?G£V)[ú×?(43Au ?G£ ?1E¥E@)
`NMú×n′0K?E¥!7?ú×
!7?ú×?Dx=?1=1
ü&?,Xy?P?èy(max)=0.3989
¤&?1t????4? ?ê?(Y aê)
(M&?
Z=0?Y a??èM6/?1
?4?1Z=0,X4?4?EH Js>
Z=0èG D/?D/DY&?G? ü
?4? ??{? a6?L!èz=+-1¤&?
^!7?ú×üz@?èE@ê???!7?ú×
><íhZYtG£×Z/P/Y
qBZúD"V)[p(A?A?)
Z1b-1~1,Xp=0.68
Z1b-2~2,XP=0.9545
Z1b-3~3,XP=0.9973
Z1b-1.96~1.96,XP=0.95
Z1b-2.58~2.58,XP=0.99
qBV)[p"zúD50%M6/?íhZ=!7Bó0.67"TL$?L$
Z,ìíbM6/?!5B5àn,X
:ó?4?á¢!7?ú×, ?1"k,ìhúD Kè,X/(Z-P-PN)
-1F''?4?ú×!7? `9 a?Dê!¨_"(p-z-Z)
.BnY6?oê?4?14{ú4?,X ?4??D(,1p
[99.73%DBü!7Bó31]-.Bn,ìhZ-p-?Dê-.Bnz-rLúD8×è)
?-114{A?n,X4§p, ?-1ú×!7?ú×,ú14{E@6E24á ?G£ _úD
-[p])-"íh!5B1kp-z-,ìhúD
--Mindjet
()
()
()
,
()
()
,
--Mindjet
Vé
''N/n
?D(''???1?)/43AuG£(??XSr)
7?+zdf?hüa43AuE¤1k `43Au|???G£L$ ′2?,XtD
?ú×,Xú×? ?''/ú×
Lc??"?±A? ?t(à0?è±A? ?ᢠàú×
G D?ú×
JG D1b''G D
J??A?qBá à5àá à(V?)
?ú×(#?E¥)!7?ê,G Da''G D/??üZ>
?ú×tú×èG D `''G D/??43AuG£üt>
(#?Eˉ)!7?ú×
''ú×!7?,???-1,′A?n??
G ?úD!7?ú×
''ú×!7?,??t-1,''n>30G Dú×
E¥!7?ú×.ü???Sn·ó???
''ú×M2!7?,''???-1,''n>30
G D?ú×#?E¥!7?
tú×
?G Da??A?,X!¨)[G2?
t
''??t-1,n<30èG D,X?ú×tú×
1??0''??,XAu
G D?ú×??A?
7?+zdf=n-1
G D `''G D/??43AuG£( àZ)-Eú"5Bμ Kè
(M&?
G 0
íbG 0í/?,Xú×,ú×oBó ?!7
t ?G£ aüBó′0K!7′0KKè
ú×6?Lc7?+z5à ?,Y?£ú×
íh,ìh,X><èJ>,XP?t{, ?{V)[
#?E¥!7?ú×yE¥!7?ú×
?G£nC^?èyE¥C^Q
''#p/?zC^?èyE¥C^Q
''#p/?z?,n\?êèG D,X?ú×!yE¥!7?ú×
&?Au
43AuG£0'' ?D,XAu?1A??,ü!¤
QAuG£(M&?
′#?:!£?Au a#?G D0??G??U?
?7è?:n′L$r?,AuhA1C^2?.B
Y?:′#Auá!6?tê,J??A?/ ????,XY
ú?:n,X43AuG£ ú ???Sn-1''???,X′#Au.G D′#Au
KèAu
Y?n5Bμz?U",+43AuG£Au'' ?Dü8×è
Vé
5Bμ Kè:¤?5Bμzê'' ?Dü 3KSz,C^?C^Q
5Bμz:'' ?D:ü¤? 3,XV)[1-.,C^?C^Q
:+?"G.::ü Kèê((?JíA?),XV)[
? s)ú
qB?ú× s)ú,üú×??A?(SE)Au1k KèKSz
?sAuV)[??--?ú×??_?·G?V)[
Au8×è??--??A????n
!9Px
+rkDB1k43AuG£-G D
1k?ú×??A?-,?!¤nú×,ü,ìh@?
+5Bμz `?ú×6?1><-A?A?&?
Au1k5Bμ Kèèz/t,XEúE¤1k
?·G?'' ?D5Bμ Kè
?tü9Au à?''EYnQ
-----
''!7???-1ê''M2!7???-1n>30
.BnG D?6?SEíh@?
.=0.05,5Bμz0.95
.=0.01,5Bμz0.99
''!7???t-1
n>30!7??)ú
N<30Yt?)údf.t
t-1
n>30!7??)ú
''!¨)[ KèAu
!¨)[?ú×`NMú×,JEˉ>''!¨)[Au,X)úA?qB
`NMú×í/?
`NMú×E¥!7?
!¨)[?ú×???/???A?
''!¨_Po,qo-1
''!¨_Po,qot-1èü!¨_·ó
`NMú×yE¥!7?ú×
p,X0.955Bμ Kè
p,X0.995Bμ Kè
''n\?,pyE¥0ê1,`NMú×áyE¥!7?ú×,?U1''!¨)[><(n `L??U"!¨)[,X4±íNe?k)
--Mindjet
H0,XA?, sA?H1??A?
??H0 ú?)?-ˉ,ò,:+á:+,qB,X?V)[_ê ú ¥óZ
()---
/
,ì à:+"G, )?P`+?b ?,X,|4±H0?t?
?2OJíA?
H0!7.B>|4±,1?2OJíA?.JíA?)
H0JíA?>y ?è1`2OJíA??JíA?)[á à?t'']
?5ùV)[ aá1
{ ?/?JíA?
EY aE?'',X."G
yü?-1,X>!¨EW,X?tG£DKè,X?7èG2? ) ?
E?''rt?G£
?0?<.′A? `?EYA?, BNl,?,? ){E? ?{?P`
H0?0?!¤?EY?
EY a:+?"G.í,ìh?ú×1><,?+
??4§pJ4-??·G?
()
Lc? a,X??:+?P`
??á:+ G+Lc?A??'';?ê ú97?!8''
—z?P`"?
n<30df=n-1
n>30
,
()
?t(à0?
''!7?(à0??
G D??á¢df=n1+n2-2,Xtú×
1Tê""?
''?G£,ì1
1Tê
?t,ìG
?/???
à?4?>A?üá à5ê?6?,X?4?
()
? ú G!,X5ê??4?>A?6?,X()
n?í??#tDr?tKè/??,ìG
n>30
n<30()
D!£í??#,X?D,?D,XG D(X£)
()
/??,ìG2?DA??P`
`'',ìG2?D???P`
??á:+ G+Lc?A??'';?
,ìG2?Dr?ú×
A??P`,X)úA? ?.
''?=0,,ìG2?Drú×í/??á¢!7??
tú×
?á1b0,,ìG2?Dú×#?,áA?n??
rL|?,??/???0 sA?Eˉ>á à?P`
sA??=0ê
,ìG2?Dr ú97?Lê,ìG''
sA???=0K''Dê
r#?E@6zá¢!7?(1><)
?,ìG2?DKè???P`
?t,ìG2?D
97??í?Bü,ì à ?G£
Ja,ìG2?DA??P`
14{,ìG2?D,X?P`rRa:+"G+!¨(Nl,??2?A??)
6??èw2?D?P`
w2?D ú97?Lê,ìG
3<=N<=7
"Ri,X/??G? `
SS
"?b??,"uY:+?,???á?7è,w97?Lê,ìG''
N>7
df=N-1
&?`?,ìG?P`
?tG DKè??,Xt?P`"?
/??,ìG2?D+Eˉ>?P`,?n:+"G
E¥"?(n>50)
ü0.05"GT:+
ü0.01"GT:+
3,ìG?P`
ü 5??P`?"?
!¨)[A??P`
a''!¨)[???P`
k/n,?P`!8!¨)[a
,X?-1''!¨)[??
p0''V)[qo=po-1
?t!¨)[Kè???P`
,X!¨)[
np>5ènq>5E¥!7?,X5ê
?tn1
??Kè??A??P`
?(à0?Kè????:+?P`
??,ì1/U$?,Xhü
?t(à0?G D???P`!¤
)′2?` !¨EW?tG D ú,ì1!¤
?P`——F?P`
Sn-1Vp4-,Xá?UAu1kèVpn,ì àáü1k
Fú×
F6?ú×Fú×,?Lcdf ?ê,X?£#?ú×,ú$ú!?df=n-1
ú×áí/?,tú× `!7?ú×í/?ú×
o )F1-a ?Fa,X?D
E@ê a ?. ??P`è?bFa??
:+??á1
?t(à0???U$??P`
--Mindjet
,()
n
?P`Kè?? ú:+
rL??#?D-)úA??D
5?ú× 5?6?,X!7#?ú×,Lcdf ?ê,df′0K?, 5?ú×!7? 5???0????èz/t
rLhü
üz?P`
Y?t??ú4?,X
ú?7è,XK?Nl(GK"4£P`)úA?)
rkú×a?NMú× ü?P`(á à2O,XtDíh)úA?!¨_?7è?)
rkú×a!7?ú× ü?P`
"??ú4?DBG D???
"!£?4?,XrTL$
"!£4?rTL$aG D/??
ü!£4?,X/??L81???"z
+z1!7?ú×><,?Z?M6/?
A14?rTL$??M6/?£ ???4?rTL$M6/?
?Dú×><?D,1!£4?ù ?,XM6/?!¨_()úA??D)
:——(31
)z—
5
df=-3
(à0???P`
-è0JCmY?/?ú2O??ú2O,?P`?/?ú2O???,X
)?B5Kè ú(à0?,XK?Nl(L??U^CmH)ú??6(><)
22?6(><
22
!£t)úA??D
7?+z+><?n,!8><(2-1)(2-1)
5?-?!7@?
<5
()
,ìG
0ú ??P`"?
1(2)?,X!7Bó ???qB,X43Au?P`"?
7? à?t''ê?t''ú×,ì à,Fw+ `—tD à
0ú ?,ì???: ?1E?E?a43Au><+!¨EW
?:r1><R+?U-1F'':+"Gè?D,EW?AuDr
?
0ú ??P`1`NMú× s)ú ?.,np>=5`NMú×yE¥!7?
N>25:+?P`
r a??íhá àE¤1k0ú ?
3 ?1ü1><"?è,ìíè2?.B
0ú ?/? `?P`"?
!9Px
Au1k ?íDB?D4±í
^?¢??fcm14{, à aG
Au1k!7? `Bó?14{ a,14{ a/? `
Ta0ú ?/? `?P`><+!¨??
?t97? à?''?0?,!7? `Bó?14{ `,ì1
a0ú ??P`"?á à?5×<%ZD,X??
?:1><"?
?N>25
N?DM20tD
T14{ `EW?,X
(à0?
/? `?P`"?
!9Px
^DB#? ü¢??fc4-14{
Au1k?G£?,XDB14{ `T()
úTa?P`><+??
??t(à0??G£10íh+TYT?+,üJ8×èYy ? sA?
?
TEW?/? `
n1EW?,X?G£
!D?P`"?
A?
′!8!£tü6( ü!DT??)?,XDBtD à
!9Px
?#? üfc"6( ü!D
43Au!£t?b?b!DtD
??2k?6(><1k 5?
!¨EW 5?,???t
--Mindjet
,
--Mindjet
1T )Lc?(?1R"?[2]/LcD+><"?)
?? ?/?1C±?:·><?!¨1TLc?Q
ú?:Y'',X¤o(MUúü?
H5x?:aú?4§ ü,5x )!,E?üb????
?G£a?A??Kèá 4??G2?
??"?,???A?A??()úA?),43AuG£ú×,''(MU
Au''G Dê?G£.Bn
''???,d???A?A??,??n
:+"G?!7?ú×"k
''??t-1,tú×.(df′0K1> !7?íh.E¥"?n,ü.Bndf
1><a"n-1F''! a??,ì à4§3
''!¨)[AuêL??G£
--Mindjet
??4?Kè,X??(?)ú?"?éCK)SSb4?Y,X??
(?A??éCK)SSw
??údü ??ú?· ?.T,E?E???!¨(F)
r)?í
??úd ?5ê
??,X ?t?
''á¢!7?ú×——áêE@6êüM2 ?D??úd
??U$?——"4?Y ? ?rP`?)úY??P!8′??
á àt'',X??#,ìf(à0?,X
?0?A?H0 ,ì1
"G? ` `7?+z
n/
/
,,4§pá ?
/
''G D"?—SSb
SSw!£t/??G? ` `
/
/?R
df=nk-1
df=k-1
df=n-1
df=(n-1)(k-1)
" ?MSb `MSw
df=k-1
df=k(n-1)
Eˉ>F?P`
G?4?Kè ? ú:+?b4?Y ?
,ì ?íáü?P`èF )?P`
???úd><( ??9$d[4?Y,4?Kè,'']/G? `/7?+z/ ?/F)
kk
Lc aN á>A?Lcú?ktrP`4?
!£trP`4?Lc?ny ?/?rP`?)ú
` rP`A??SSe
>A?t''??, 4?G? `SSr
Lc? an( 4?>A? àBü)
rP`?U"
!£t 4?y ?ktrP`?)ú
4?Y>A?Lcú?
y ?rP`?)ú¤?/?
!£t>A?0?t 4? GG?á#G£
!£t 4??D?)útDHDá
4?Y>A?1?'' )!,5àM2t'' )!
!£trP`?)úüá à 4?G?á?D à
,?,Xüb£?rP`A??,úd 4?Kè??
??údF?P`:+——
?"?
t/Lc 4?A?Aun/A?? ?
D,JCYE?
?n."G??L$zD:+
-
q
t!9Px
" ?G DJfNNc(??)
k1b?tG Dü14{?t1
E?E?K `dfw1><"q
ü,ìhk??><íh `??G?!¨EW><
G"?!¨EW,X14{ aíh?t><
q?P`"?
--Mindjet
|
|