智慧农业（中英文）SmartAgricultureVol.3,No.2
76
605-620.wheatsowingdateasanadaptationtoclimatechange
[33]ASSENGS,MARTREP,MAIORANOA,etal.ontheloessplateau[J].AgronomyJournal,2016,108
Climatechangeimpactandadaptationforwheatpro‐(1):53-63.
tein[J].GlobalChangeBiology,2019,25(1):155-173.[37]TAOF,ZHANGZ,XIAOD,etal.Responsesofwheat
[34]SUNH,ZHANGX,CHENS,etal.Effectsofhar‐growthandyieldtoclimatechangeindifferentclimate
vestandsowingtimeontheperformanceoftherota‐zonesofChina,1981—2009[J].AgriculturalandFor‐
tionofwinterwheat-summermaizeintheNorthChi‐estMeteorology,2014,189-190:91-104.
naPlain[J].IndustrialCropsandProducts,2007,25(3):[38]DUANH,ZHOUS,JIANGK,etal.AssessingChina''s
239-247.effortstopursuethe1.5°Cwarminglimit[J].Science,
[35]WANGC,FENGL,WUL,etal.Assessmentofgeno‐2021,372(6540):378-385.
typesandmanagementstrategiestoimproveresilience[39]XIONGW,ASSENGS,HOOGENBOOMG,etal.
ofwinterwheatproduction[J].Sustainability,2020,12Differentuncertaintydistributionbetweenhighand
(4):1-21.lowlatitudesinmodellingwarmingimpactson
[36]DINGD,FENGH,ZHAOY,etal.Modifyingwinterwheat[J].NatureFood,2019,1(1):63-69.
OptimumSowingDateofWinterWheatinNext40Years
BasedonDSSAT-CERES-WheatModel
123111
HUYanan,LIANGJu,LIANGShefang,LIShijuan,ZHUYeping,EYue
（1.AgriculturalInformationInstitute,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences/KeyLaboratoryofAgri-informa‐
tionServiceTechnology,MinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairs,Beijing100081,China;2.CollegeofEngineer‐
ing,MathematicsandPhysicalSciences,UniversityofExeter,ExeterEX44QF,UK;3.KeyLaboratoryofAgricul‐
turalRemoteSensing,MinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairs/InstituteofAgriculturalResourcesandRegional
Planning,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,Beijing100081,China）
Abstract:Climatechangerequirescropadaptation.Plantintatthesuitabledateisakeymanagementtechnologytopromotecrop
yieldandaddresstheimpactofclimatechange.WheatisoneofthemostimportantstaplecropsinChina.Huang-Huai-Haiand
Jiang-Huairegionsarehigh-qualityandhigh-quantityplantingareasforwheat.Todealwiththeadverseeffectsofclimate
changeandpromotethewinterwheatyieldinHuang-Huai-HaiandJiang-Huairegions,theoptimumsowingdatewasidentified
bycreatingawheatsimulationwithDSSATCERES-Wheatmodel.Thesimulationexperimentwasdesignedwith51manage‐
mentinputsofsowingdateand4climatescenarios(RCPs)underbaselineperiod(1985－2004)and40yearsinfutureforthree
representativestationsinthestudyregion.Theoptimumsowingdataofwinterwheatwascorrespondingtothesimulationset
withhighestyieldineachsite.Thecharactersofchangesinclimatefactorsduringthegrowthperiodandtheoptimumsowing
dateamongthedifferentperiodweredetected,andtheyieldincreaseplantedattheoptimumsowingdatewasquantified.There‐
sultsshowedthat,inthefuture,theclimateduringwinterwheatgrowthperiodshowedatrendofwarminganddryingwould
shortenthegrowthperiod.Theoptimumsowingdatewouldbepostponedwiththeriseoftemperature,andthedecreaseoflati‐
tudeinallperiodsandundervariousclimatescenarios.Relativetothebaselineperiod,themaximumdelaydaysoftheoptimal
sowingdateincreasedfromnorthtosouthduring2030s,whichwere5days,8daysand13daysatthethreerepresentativesta‐
tions,respectively.Theoptimumsowingtimesin2050sweredelayedindifferentdegreescomparedwiththatin2030s.The
largestpostponeddaysateachstationwasattheRCP8.5scenarioin2050s.Adoptingthemanagementofoptimumplantingdate
couldmitigateclimaticnegativeeffectsandwasinvaryingdegreesofyieldincreasingeffectatthreesites.Thesmallestincrease
occurredinHuang-Huai-Hainorthregion,whileHuang-Huai-HaisouthregionandJiang-Huairegionhadtherelativelyhigher
yieldincreasementabout2%－4%.Therefore,thepresentstudydemonstratedaneffectivemanagementofoptimumsowing
datetopromotewinterwheatyieldunderclimatechangeinHuang-Huai-HaiandJiang-Huairegions.
Keywords:winterwheat;optimumsowingdate;climatechange;RCPs;cropmodel;Huang-Huai-Hai;Jiang-Huai
（登陆www.smartag.net.cn免费获取电子版全文） |
|
