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"TheTicker and Investment Digest" (laterbecame the Wall Street Journal) December of 1909 WilliamD. Gann Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attractedby certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by WilliamD. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exactpoints at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with pricesclose to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched. For instance, when the New York Central was 131 hepredicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figuresprove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of anyexpert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gannand his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular usewhich he was making of them in the market. The results of this investigation are remarkable in manyways. It appears to be a fact Mr. W, D. Gann has developed anentirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. Hebases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since theworld began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man andadded to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We have asked Mr. Gann foran outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to theresults obtained therefrom. We submit this in full recognition of the fact that inWall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions andencourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by themajority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. Theseactivities the said majority abhors. W. D. Gann's description of his experience and methods isgiven herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact thatMr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances. "For the past ten years I have devoted my entiretime and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lostthousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to thenovice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of thesubject." "I soon began to realize that all successful men,whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study andinvestigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting tomake any money out of it." "Being in the Brokerage business myself and handlinglarge accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man forstudying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. Ifound that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market withoutknowledge or study usually lose in the end." "I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. (发现股票涨跌有周期性)This led me to conclude thatnatural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote tenyears of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculativemarkets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitableprofession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the knownsciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks orcommodities should rise and fall within a given time." (波动法则能精确地定出在一段时间内股票涨跌的确切价位) The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses. (法则定波动成因,并预测出波动的结果) "It is impossible here to give an adequate idea ofthe law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may beable to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon whichwireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without theexistence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible." "In order to test the efficiency of my idea I havenot only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine monthsworking night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the BritishMuseum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew,Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time tothe present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to& from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. Thefigures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictlyin accordance with natural law." "In going over the history of markets and the greatmass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variationsin the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. (波动法则决定股票的波动,且这些波动的背后也存在周期法则或循环法则)Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on theExchange followed by periods of inactivity." Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to"Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring atregular intervals of time. The law(law of vibration) which I have applied will not onlygive these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements ofstocks. (波动法则不但会引起长循环或长上下运动,也会引发每日内或每小时内的波动) By knowing the exact vibration of eachindividual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive supportand at what point the greatest resistance is to be met. "Those in close touch with the market have noticedthe phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactionsbeing made in it; at other times this same stock will become practicallystationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions(cause). I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline." (上涨由一套法则主导,下跌则适用另一套不同的法则) "While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks whichmade their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common wassteadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particularstock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward." "I have found that in the stock itself exists itsharmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it.The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions." "The power to determine the trend ofthe market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individualstock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. (波动率) Stocks are like electrons, atoms andmolecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Scienceteaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic orrhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returnsagain in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as theadvancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of theelements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises." (市场或个别或个群股票的正确波动率特征是决定市场趋势的力量,股票一如电子、原子和分子，会本于基本的波动法则持续固守自身的个别特性。科学告诉我们：“任何形式的原始激励最终都会分解成为周期性或韵律性运动，正如钟摆在摆动中再次返回原来位置，正如月亮返回自己的轨道，正同来年再度带来春花，元素的性质随着原子自身重量的增加而周期性地再现。) "From my extensiveinvestigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate onthe stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of themarket are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law." (不仅各种股票有波动现象，控制股票波动的驱动力量也处于一种波动状态)。这种波动力量只有通过市场股票价格的变动才能看出来。既然市场所有的上下运动或变动都呈循环性，它们实际上按照周期法则运行。) ( law of vibration is cause and periodic law is effect) "Science has laid down the principle that theproperties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. Afamous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction thatdiversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimatelyassociated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixedaccidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes anddevelopments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd." Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause. (无论是在自然界中还是在股票市场中，任一类现象都受制于全宇性的因果法则及和谐法则。每种结果必有一种足够的成因。) "If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is basedon exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature,because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universebut mathematical points of force." (如果希望在投机市场中规避失败，我们必须处理成因。在自然中没有巧合，因为万事以最高等级的数学原理为基础) "Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe." Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities(各自活动领域), as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration.Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, whichprinciple explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it isabsolutely necessary to follow natural law. (波动是万物根本。地球上无物能免。它更是全宇性的,适用地球上每种现象 市场中每支股票都经由其波动法则在其各自不同活动领域内运动，甚至于强度，成交量和运动方向。股票所有的演化或波动特征都由其本身的波动率(Rateof Vibration)描述。股票就像原子，是能量的中心，数学性地受到控制。股票会产生自身的运动及力量(相吸或相斥力量)域，这原理说明为什么某些股票有些时候是领先市场，在另些时候却变得死寂。因此，想进行科学性地投机，就必须遵循自然法则。) "After years of patient study I have proven to myentire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration (law) explains every possible phase and condition of the market." (波动法则可以解释市场的每个可能的阶段和状况) In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as towhat he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E.Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley iswell known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock marketmovements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every pieceof market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. Itwas he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematicalpossibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive ofMr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows : "It is very difficult for me to remember all thepredictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal,but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8,he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it shortall the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it outagain on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of aneighteen-point market wave." "He came to me when United States Steel was sellingaround 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 witha stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17points." "At another time, wheat was selling at about 89¢.Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and madelarge profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35." "When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, witha stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17." "Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. Ihave followed Gann and his work closely for years. I know that he has a firmgrasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do notbelieve any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the presenttime." "Early this year, he figured that the top of theadvance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices atwhich the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on theexact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted." "You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerablemoney on all these operations," was suggested. "Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann hastaken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once sawhim take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann cancompound money faster than any man I have ever met." "One of the most astonishing calculations made byMr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheatwould sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the endof the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option wasselling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not befulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of themarket it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method ofcalculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It iscommon history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at$1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at thatfigure." So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidencedby himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place beforeour representative : During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five marketdays, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred andeighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side ofthe market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted inprofits ; twenty-two in losses. The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times,so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin. In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel commonshort at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not. On a drive which occurred during the week ending October29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would notgo to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3. We have seen gann give in one day sixteen successiveorders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top orthe bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify. Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing,are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street. James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right sixtimes out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without anyattempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to bepublished, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades. Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at anyprice, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to thestock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities. We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readersof the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in hiscalculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or outof Wall Street, is infallible. William D Gann's figures at present indicate that thetrend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward thelower prices until March or April 1910. He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at$1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring. On Cotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimatesthat after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ inthe spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option. Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no waydetract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established. William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a giftedmathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert TapeReader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitivetape reading alone. Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have nohesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D.Gann will receive recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators. Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee hassuffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. Thelowest on the May wheat thus far has been $1.01-5/8. It is now selling at$1.06-1/4. |
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